MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 8Victor Caratini
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.285wOBA vs RHP.287xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TEXNathan Eovaldi
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nathan Eovaldi's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 33% usage, 95.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Victor Caratini: wOBA .346 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 33%Splitter: 26% usage, 88.1 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Victor Caratini: wOBA .280 vs league .294 (about even).Splitter 26%Curveball: 18% usage, 76.9 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -9.1″ rise. Victor Caratini: wOBA .292 vs league .305 (about even).Curveball 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, +10.3″ rise. Victor Caratini: wOBA .346 vs league .359 (about even).Cutter 16%Slider: 6% usage, 85.7 mph, -6.2″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Victor Caratini: wOBA .320 vs league .333 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Victor Caratini's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Victor Caratini's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.3 mph at 41°Out: 78.5 mph at 34°Out: 75.1 mph at 40°Out: 93.5 mph at -15°Single: 92.6 mph at -11°Single: 94.8 mph at -8°Out: 65.7 mph at -28°Out: 87.1 mph at -21°Single: 86.8 mph at 9°Single: 77.4 mph at -8°Out: 98.2 mph at 18°Single: 99.7 mph at -16°Out: 80.7 mph at 7°Out: 89.5 mph at 72°Out: 82.8 mph at 52°Out: 94.7 mph at -16°Out: 101.5 mph at 22°Out: 104.4 mph at 3°Out: 95.1 mph at -16°Single: 70.4 mph at 7°Out: 91.3 mph at 22°Single: 94.9 mph at -11°Out: 96.7 mph at 42°Out: 101.7 mph at 0°Out: 65.4 mph at 59°Out: 94.5 mph at 72°Out: 95.5 mph at -9°Out: 63.2 mph at 74°Out: 97.1 mph at 43°Out: 85.1 mph at 12°Out: 86.5 mph at -24°Out: 92.0 mph at 22°Out: 74.6 mph at -43°Single: 93.5 mph at 13°Out: 95.9 mph at -12°Single: 104.7 mph at 23°Out: 101.3 mph at 2°Out: 82.4 mph at 43°Single: 96.8 mph at 1°Single: 78.0 mph at 4°
33% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.9%51.5%+0.4
2+ total bases29.0%28.9%+0.1
Home run6.3%6.9%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Victor Caratini hits
Where they meet

.311 xwOBA for Victor Caratini in the spots Nathan Eovaldi throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (+5 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and Nathan Eovaldi puts 21% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Nathan Eovaldi · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing2%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing8%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing10%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing12%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 75% per swing4%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing18%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing21%
All · 362 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11%10% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters10%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%25% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters25%29% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters29%
Splitter · 158 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters18% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters18%29% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters29%
Curveball · 89 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 56 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%17% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17%19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Cutter · 54 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Victor Caratini · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .459 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seen.311xwOBA .203 shrunk (raw .064 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 17 pitches seen.203xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .082 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 10 pitches seen.210xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .470 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 22 pitches seen.403xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .315 on 13 PA) · league .386 · 24 pitches seen.349xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .114 on 5 PA) · league .321 · 20 pitches seen.260xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .269 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 20 pitches seen.295xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .228 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 29 pitches seen.302xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 23 pitches seen.270xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .380 on 9 PA) · league .377 · 53 pitches seen.378xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seenxwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .233 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 71 pitches seen.247xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .414 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 76 pitches seen.349
vs RHP · 398 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 22%22%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 20%8%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 14%33%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 13%15%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 28%9%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 33% of 21 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 71% of 17 swings · league 49%71%
vs RHP · 398 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 62%60%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 71% of 24 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 45% of 20 pitches · league 70%45%Swings at 45% of 20 pitches · league 65%45%Swings at 45% of 29 pitches · league 68%45%Swings at 35% of 23 pitches · league 60%35%Swings at 21% of 53 pitches · league 24%21%Swings at 28% of 18 pitches · league 34%28%Swings at 30% of 71 pitches · league 40%30%Swings at 22% of 76 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 398 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Victor Caratini against each of Nathan Eovaldi's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball33%95.6+13″ / +14″.346.3599.8%17.1%438About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter26%88.1+13″ / +1″.280.29431.9%28.2%153About league average vs these
Curveball18%76.9-9″ / -9″.292.30524.6%26.0%30About league average vs these
Cutter16%91.0-1″ / +10″.346.35911.9%17.9%246About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider6%85.7-6″ / +2″.320.33325.8%26.9%131About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Victor Caratini · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.300.364.300.309.13527.3%0.0%50.0%82.594.80.0%0.0%14.3%
Last 15 G1329.240.345.240.283.22610.3%6.9%25.5%85.9104.40.0%18.2%18.2%
Last 30 G2764.214.312.214.260.25417.2%9.4%22.5%87.3105.42.3%31.8%20.5%
90 days4099.221.323.279.286.28715.2%10.1%20.6%89.1107.04.3%35.7%32.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 24%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.167.167.167.150.07650.0%0.0%30.0%87.193.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1018.062.167.062.128.16844.4%5.6%31.0%93.8101.70.0%62.5%12.5%
Last 30 G1733.103.212.103.167.18742.4%6.1%24.6%92.4102.40.0%53.3%20.0%
90 days2449.133.204.156.174.20138.8%4.1%28.2%90.2103.70.0%38.5%34.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.294.250.253.11435.3%0.0%42.9%83.994.80.0%0.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1547.171.277.171.223.20423.4%6.4%27.5%88.0104.40.0%30.0%16.7%
Last 30 G3097.176.278.176.228.23125.8%8.2%23.3%88.6105.41.7%37.3%20.3%
90 days44148.191.284.237.249.25823.0%8.1%23.3%89.4107.03.1%36.5%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 24%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 8%
Victor Caratini · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating14Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.251 / .271running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 22RHPFastball97.087.341.003Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.778.534.031Out
Sep 20LHPSlider80.075.140.217Out
Sep 20LHPCutter87.593.5-15.114Double play
Sep 19LHPFastball94.692.6-11.123Single
Sep 19RHPFastball95.094.8-8.168Single
Sep 17RHPSinker99.165.7-28.029Out
Sep 17RHPSinker96.087.1-21.043Out
Sep 17RHPFastball102.786.89.425Single
Sep 16RHPSinker93.677.4-8.052Single
Sep 15LHPFastball94.298.218.408Out
Sep 14RHPFastball93.899.7-16.097Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 22300001
Sep 20400001
Sep 19522003
Sep 17411001
Sep 16111000
Sep 15300002
Sep 14411000
Sep 13200000
Sep 12400001
Sep 9311001

Two strikes

Nathan Eovaldi TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Nathan Eovaldi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter39%48%24.2%20.9%21.3%
Curveball24%27%32.3%19.2%20.7%
Fastball17%14%35.3%30.8%18.3%
Cutter14%11%16.7%15.0%18.7%
Slider1%1%–0.0%21.4%
Victor Caratini bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Victor Caratini with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.8%41.3%
Whiff%18.9%21.6%
Contact%81.1%78.4%
Chase%37.8%39.4%
wOBA.248.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%23.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.289
K%21.3%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%10.0%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%25.9%
Avg EV89.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

100 PA
wOBA.285
xwOBA vs this mix.287against pitches like his
RV/100-0.63
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%16.8%
BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nathan EovaldiRHP · TEX vs MIN4 days' rest
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.2%9%78 strikeouts: 5.5%6%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 69% (red bars) · under: 31%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.1%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo86.6
BTB Stuff93
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Splitter38%11088.616.3%
Curveball26%7276.221.0%
Fastball17%7994.312.1%
Cutter14%10189.59.1%
Sinker3%9693.511.1%
Slider2%9286.911.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Aug 7869%9%36%.243
Jul 319419%14%46%.538
Jul 259133%12%17%.156

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nathan Eovaldi TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Victor Caratini: every projection we've made →