MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 5Jackson Merrill
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.388wOBA vs RHP.400xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · ARIMichael Soroka
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Up
4.5projected K26%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Soroka's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.7 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .378 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Fastball 36%Sweeper: 23% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .320 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.8 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .381 vs league .359 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Changeup: 12% usage, 84.1 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .332 vs league .310 (hitter's edge).Changeup 12%Slider: 11% usage, 82.4 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .334 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Slider 11%Cutter: 4% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +7.5″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .371 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Cutter 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jackson Merrill's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jackson Merrill's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 86.1 mph at -3°Single: 88.3 mph at 18°Double: 110.4 mph at 21°Out: 79.2 mph at 13°Out: 94.9 mph at 23°Out: 78.3 mph at -27°Out: 76.2 mph at -37°Out: 100.9 mph at -2°Out: 79.8 mph at -37°Out: 87.8 mph at 27°Out: 91.1 mph at 27°Out: 106.7 mph at -27°Single: 86.4 mph at -11°Out: 104.2 mph at -8°Single: 99.0 mph at 17°Out: 101.1 mph at 6°Home run: 111.4 mph at 29°Triple: 74.8 mph at 48°Out: 85.4 mph at 11°Out: 91.2 mph at 2°Single: 99.8 mph at 15°Single: 110.6 mph at 8°Single: 96.6 mph at 15°Out: 99.5 mph at 33°Out: 83.9 mph at 26°Single: 104.4 mph at 11°Single: 105.8 mph at 12°Out: 81.2 mph at 34°Single: 111.2 mph at 1°Single: 96.6 mph at 14°Single: 99.4 mph at -20°Out: 94.3 mph at -11°Out: 95.8 mph at 7°Double: 100.4 mph at 29°Out: 103.0 mph at -7°Home run: 102.2 mph at 31°Out: 69.9 mph at -5°Single: 83.3 mph at 7°Single: 109.5 mph at 14°Double: 98.0 mph at 25°
55% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.5%67.8%-1.2
2+ total bases45.0%45.9%-0.9
Home run19.3%19.3%+0.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jackson Merrill hits
Where they meet

.343 xwOBA for Jackson Merrill in the spots Michael Soroka throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (+35 points). His best spot against righties is up-middle, and Michael Soroka puts 2% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Michael Soroka · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%14% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing14%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing11%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing11%24% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 47% per swing24%
All · 276 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 96 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%42% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters42%
Sweeper · 81 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%25% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Changeup · 56 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%16% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters16%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%42% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters42%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Cutter · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jackson Merrill · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .520 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.397xwOBA .554 shrunk (raw .765 on 14 PA) · league .307 · 38 pitches seen.554xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .353 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.296xwOBA .464 shrunk (raw .534 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 58 pitches seen.464xwOBA .399 shrunk (raw .408 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 45 pitches seen.399xwOBA .455 shrunk (raw .570 on 14 PA) · league .321 · 36 pitches seen.455xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .285 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 49 pitches seen.296xwOBA .509 shrunk (raw .599 on 21 PA) · league .351 · 50 pitches seen.509xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .338 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 30 pitches seen.313xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .323 on 28 PA) · league .377 · 167 pitches seen.339xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .362 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 56 pitches seen.316xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .213 on 35 PA) · league .263 · 163 pitches seen.226xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .319 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 135 pitches seen.305
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 23% of 26 swings · league 22%23%Whiff 20% of 30 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 13% of 48 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 13% of 40 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 17% of 30 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 17% of 30 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 18% of 40 swings · league 13%18%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 30% of 57 swings · league 28%30%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 24%31%Whiff 35% of 69 swings · league 32%35%Whiff 40% of 55 swings · league 49%40%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 79% of 33 pitches · league 62%79%Swings at 79% of 38 pitches · league 72%79%Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 83% of 58 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 89% of 45 pitches · league 76%89%Swings at 83% of 36 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 61% of 49 pitches · league 65%61%Swings at 80% of 50 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 70% of 30 pitches · league 60%70%Swings at 34% of 167 pitches · league 24%34%Swings at 46% of 56 pitches · league 34%46%Swings at 42% of 163 pitches · league 40%42%Swings at 41% of 135 pitches · league 32%41%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jackson Merrill against each of Michael Soroka's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.7+9″ / +15″.378.35720.2%17.7%323About league average vs these
Sweeper23%80.6-12″ / -8″.320.29725.6%28.0%82About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.8+16″ / +9″.381.35917.1%14.3%227About league average vs these
Changeup12%84.1+17″ / +7″.332.31026.6%27.8%119About league average vs these
Slider11%82.4-5″ / -3″.334.31227.6%29.9%97About league average vs these
Cutter4%89.0-1″ / +8″.371.34925.1%21.8%155About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jackson Merrill · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.200.200.267.203.28020.0%0.0%29.2%90.1110.48.3%25.0%41.7%
Last 15 G1548.391.417.630.468.39125.0%4.2%31.5%94.7111.28.8%52.9%50.0%
Last 30 G2891.321.363.536.395.42120.9%5.5%25.0%96.1112.712.1%57.6%48.5%
90 days74232.291.341.559.395.41221.6%6.5%24.4%93.0112.714.0%51.2%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 164 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 27%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.15133.3%0.0%16.7%94.3100.90.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G916.312.312.812.462.44318.8%0.0%15.6%94.8111.423.1%61.5%38.5%
Last 30 G1837.257.278.600.396.41318.9%2.7%24.0%90.8111.417.2%48.3%37.9%
90 days4798.295.299.463.338.33326.5%1.0%24.8%92.2111.49.9%50.7%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 23%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.167.167.222.169.25922.2%0.0%26.7%90.7110.47.1%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1564.371.391.677.466.40423.4%3.1%27.3%94.7111.412.8%55.3%46.8%
Last 30 G30128.303.339.555.395.41920.3%4.7%24.7%94.5112.713.7%54.7%45.3%
90 days79330.292.328.529.378.38923.0%4.8%24.5%92.8112.712.8%51.1%42.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 235 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 26%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
Jackson Merrill · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches79trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.375 / .400running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter90.586.1-3.194Out
Sep 25RHPCutter91.488.318.741Single
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.4110.4211.630Double
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.879.213.521Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.394.923.234Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter89.578.3-27.044Force out
Sep 23RHPSplitter93.076.2-37.077Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball80.2100.9-2.371Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.079.8-37.048Out
Sep 22LHPSlider87.887.827.082Out
Sep 22RHPFastball99.791.127.118Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.9106.7-27.110Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25211000
Sep 24412002
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19511013
Sep 18414102
Sep 17413001
Sep 16533002
Sep 15422000

Two strikes

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Soroka with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%50%39.5%31.3%20.7%
Fastball32%32%20.0%14.3%18.3%
Changeup13%10%11.1%7.7%18.4%
Sinker10%5%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Cutter14%3%66.7%50.0%18.7%
Other0%1%–0.0%17.9%
Jackson Merrill bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jackson Merrill with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.3%41.3%
Whiff%22.8%21.6%
Contact%77.2%78.4%
Chase%46.1%39.4%
wOBA.254.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.7%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.366
K%22.7%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%13.3%
Barrel%8.9%
Hard-hit%35.1%
Avg EV92.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

230 PA
wOBA.388
xwOBA vs this mix.400against pitches like his
RV/1001.34
Hard-hit%35.1%
K%21.6%
BB%5.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael SorokaRHP · ARI vs SD
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 20.8 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.9%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.6%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff90
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper32%7480.718.0%
Fastball32%9993.29.4%
Cutter14%10889.09.4%
Changeup13%8685.88.3%
Sinker10%8993.12.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229336%14%24%.258
Sep 158033%16%11%.200
Sep 95825%9%38%.281

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jackson Merrill: every projection we've made →