MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 1Lars Nootbaar
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · SDTBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Lars Nootbaar's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.0 mph at 34°Out: 72.1 mph at -18°Home run: 106.4 mph at 32°Single: 73.5 mph at 16°Out: 79.4 mph at 3°Single: 106.8 mph at 13°Out: 81.6 mph at -11°Out: 93.4 mph at -33°Single: 99.1 mph at 4°Out: 81.3 mph at -19°Double: 99.6 mph at 23°Single: 105.6 mph at 6°Out: 70.7 mph at 71°Out: 89.9 mph at -37°Out: 92.5 mph at 5°Out: 97.7 mph at -16°Out: 82.9 mph at 9°Out: 68.7 mph at 11°Out: 101.7 mph at 55°Out: 93.1 mph at 26°Single: 106.3 mph at -5°Home run: 100.5 mph at 32°Out: 103.0 mph at -7°Single: 76.1 mph at 21°Single: 95.8 mph at 0°Out: 100.8 mph at -9°Single: 107.1 mph at 8°Out: 81.1 mph at -15°Out: 109.1 mph at 9°Out: 44.2 mph at -70°Out: 87.1 mph at 42°Out: 101.8 mph at 33°Single: 78.7 mph at 11°Single: 102.5 mph at -10°Out: 93.8 mph at 24°Single: 104.8 mph at 12°Out: 85.3 mph at 36°Double: 99.6 mph at 20°Out: 92.5 mph at 82°Out: 99.4 mph at 14°
50% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.4%58.6%-0.1
2+ total bases35.8%35.8%+0.0
Home run12.2%11.7%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.0
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Lars Nootbaar hits
Lars Nootbaar · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .237 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.253xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .466 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 29 pitches seen.371xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .366 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.297xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .414 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 57 pitches seen.384xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .356 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 65 pitches seen.368xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .230 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 38 pitches seen.274xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .304 on 23 PA) · league .308 · 63 pitches seen.305xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .375 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 62 pitches seen.366xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .293 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 48 pitches seen.293xwOBA .410 shrunk (raw .426 on 24 PA) · league .377 · 128 pitches seen.410xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .126 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 46 pitches seen.207xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .262 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 128 pitches seen.262xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .406 on 26 PA) · league .274 · 155 pitches seen.364
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 15% of 26 swings · league 22%15%Whiff 0% of 16 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 10% of 31 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 14% of 37 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 13% of 39 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 19% of 26 swings · league 28%19%Whiff 25% of 24 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 20% of 35 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 46% of 22 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 41 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 55% of 29 pitches · league 72%55%Swings at 55% of 20 pitches · league 66%55%Swings at 54% of 57 pitches · league 70%54%Swings at 57% of 65 pitches · league 76%57%Swings at 61% of 38 pitches · league 70%61%Swings at 52% of 63 pitches · league 65%52%Swings at 63% of 62 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 46% of 48 pitches · league 60%46%Swings at 20% of 128 pitches · league 24%20%Swings at 52% of 46 pitches · league 34%52%Swings at 27% of 128 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 14% of 155 pitches · league 32%14%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lars Nootbaar · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.333.368.556.397.36921.1%5.3%21.2%90.0106.87.1%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1548.310.375.476.371.34325.0%10.4%18.3%92.2109.16.5%51.6%41.9%
Last 30 G3093.301.366.542.389.38618.3%9.7%16.2%93.2110.510.4%53.7%44.8%
90 days67212.243.335.395.329.34018.9%12.3%16.2%92.2110.56.8%50.7%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 19%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11–1.000–.700.6980.0%100.0%––––––
Last 15 G57.000.333.000.267.53114.3%28.6%9.1%81.4101.825.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 30 G79.000.375.000.288.48522.2%33.3%23.1%81.4101.825.0%25.0%0.0%
90 days1935.071.235.071.182.29625.7%17.1%24.5%84.5106.510.0%30.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 10%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.333.400.556.412.38620.0%10.0%21.2%90.0106.87.1%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1555.283.370.435.359.36423.6%12.7%17.2%91.0109.18.6%48.6%37.1%
Last 30 G30102.284.366.511.380.39418.6%11.8%16.8%92.5110.511.3%52.1%42.3%
90 days69247.221.321.352.309.33419.8%13.0%17.3%91.3110.57.2%48.2%34.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 166 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Lars Nootbaar · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating77Above average
Last 100 pitches86trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .345running 33 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.9101.034.836Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter86.572.1-18.050Out
Sep 25RHPFastball90.8106.4321.737Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball92.773.516.660Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.479.43.225Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.4106.813.863Single
Sep 24RHPFastball92.481.6-11.086Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.193.4-33.063Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.199.14.457Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.981.3-19.056Out
Sep 20RHPSinker93.699.623.683Double
Sep 20RHPFastball94.1105.66.553Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25514120
Sep 24633000
Sep 23300002
Sep 20323001
Sep 19300001
Sep 18400002
Sep 16500011
Sep 15600014
Sep 14536101
Sep 13322000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lars Nootbaar: every projection we've made →