MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 8Austin Riley
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.304wOBA vs RHP.303xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Austin Riley: wOBA .368 vs league .339 (hitter's edge).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Austin Riley: wOBA .328 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Austin Riley: wOBA .309 vs league .277 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Austin Riley: wOBA .333 vs league .300 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Austin Riley: wOBA .326 vs league .293 (hitter's edge).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Austin Riley's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Austin Riley's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.9 mph at 12°Home run: 106.4 mph at 29°Out: 85.1 mph at 34°Out: 94.5 mph at 1°Home run: 104.3 mph at 29°Single: 104.2 mph at 4°Out: 106.1 mph at 18°Out: 77.3 mph at -7°Out: 90.2 mph at 28°Single: 81.4 mph at 14°Out: 89.7 mph at -33°Out: 72.3 mph at 56°Single: 89.1 mph at 15°Out: 108.4 mph at 16°Out: 72.1 mph at 17°Single: 84.7 mph at -44°Out: 88.8 mph at -18°Out: 63.3 mph at -29°Out: 103.0 mph at 19°Out: 88.8 mph at 59°Single: 84.7 mph at -1°Out: 85.1 mph at 10°Out: 59.3 mph at 66°Out: 96.1 mph at -22°Single: 97.7 mph at 15°Home run: 109.8 mph at 28°Out: 98.5 mph at 18°Out: 88.1 mph at -11°Out: 76.5 mph at -41°Single: 85.7 mph at -3°Out: 76.8 mph at -26°Out: 91.3 mph at 49°Single: 96.1 mph at -2°Out: 89.9 mph at 58°Out: 111.0 mph at 14°Triple: 109.0 mph at 21°Out: 98.1 mph at 20°Home run: 103.1 mph at 28°Out: 86.5 mph at 30°Single: 78.1 mph at 11°
38% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.9%54.2%+3.7
2+ total bases35.8%33.7%+2.1
Home run14.2%14.2%+0.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Austin Riley hits
Where they meet

.298 xwOBA for Austin Riley in the spots Janson Junk throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (-9 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Janson Junk puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Janson Junk · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing10%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing6%29% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing29%
All · 349 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Fastball · 99 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters10%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%41% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Sweeper · 97 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%35% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters35%
Slider · 54 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters18%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 28 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters15%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%26% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Curveball · 27 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Austin Riley · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .236 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 40 pitches seen.254xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .648 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 41 pitches seen.375xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .454 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.359xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .270 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 36 pitches seen.303xwOBA .489 shrunk (raw .561 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 55 pitches seen.489xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .261 on 19 PA) · league .321 · 52 pitches seen.284xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .208 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.265xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .469 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 55 pitches seen.425xwOBA .232 shrunk (raw .202 on 24 PA) · league .292 · 66 pitches seen.232xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .299 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 88 pitches seen.330xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .208 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 83 pitches seen.235xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .364 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 60 pitches seen.317xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .191 on 44 PA) · league .274 · 266 pitches seen.209
vs RHP · 897 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 22%20%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 20%21%Whiff 35% of 20 swings · league 19%35%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 9% of 44 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 23% of 43 swings · league 13%23%Whiff 28% of 47 swings · league 17%28%Whiff 46% of 33 swings · league 28%46%Whiff 27% of 33 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 30% of 37 swings · league 32%30%Whiff 65% of 72 swings · league 49%65%
vs RHP · 897 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 40 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 71% of 41 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 67% of 30 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 83% of 36 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 80% of 55 pitches · league 76%80%Swings at 69% of 52 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 76% of 25 pitches · league 65%76%Swings at 78% of 55 pitches · league 68%78%Swings at 71% of 66 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 38% of 88 pitches · league 24%38%Swings at 40% of 83 pitches · league 34%40%Swings at 62% of 60 pitches · league 40%62%Swings at 27% of 266 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 897 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Austin Riley against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.368.33927.2%21.6%574About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.328.29634.0%31.6%524Hits these better than most
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.309.27732.2%30.9%283Hits these better than most
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.333.30029.8%32.0%156Hits these better than most
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.326.29329.1%27.4%147Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Austin Riley · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.286.500.321.42721.4%7.1%33.3%89.7108.420.0%20.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1545.205.289.359.287.31835.6%11.1%30.2%89.2109.812.5%29.2%45.8%
Last 30 G2987.231.287.385.293.32231.0%8.0%28.4%91.4111.013.2%35.8%45.3%
90 days74225.237.284.411.301.30035.1%6.2%29.3%90.9111.413.0%42.0%40.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 28%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.400.4001.000.580.56420.0%0.0%14.3%98.0106.150.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G712.250.250.500.317.29125.0%0.0%16.7%88.2106.122.2%44.4%33.3%
Last 30 G1526.174.269.304.260.23334.6%7.7%25.5%87.3106.114.3%28.6%35.7%
90 days3668.220.324.356.307.33033.8%7.4%26.4%94.2112.216.7%47.2%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 28%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.294.316.647.389.46321.1%5.3%29.0%92.1108.428.6%35.7%57.1%
Last 15 G1557.216.281.392.293.31233.3%8.8%27.3%88.9109.815.2%33.3%42.4%
Last 30 G30113.218.283.366.285.30331.9%8.0%27.8%90.6111.013.4%34.3%43.3%
90 days76293.233.294.398.302.30734.8%6.5%28.6%91.6112.213.8%43.1%40.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 28%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 14%
Austin Riley · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating58Average
Last 100 pitches92trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.308 / .326running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider86.379.912.444Out
Sep 24RHPCutter86.0106.4291.839Home run
Sep 24RHPSinker89.985.134.020Sac fly
Sep 24RHPSweeper83.894.51.395Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.1104.3291.539Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball92.0104.24.519Single
Sep 22LHPCutter91.1106.118.673Out
Sep 22LHPCutter90.777.3-7.089Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.590.228.074Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.181.414.751Single
Sep 19RHPSinker92.689.7-33.041Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper82.972.356.085Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300002
Sep 24414110
Sep 23425102
Sep 22411000
Sep 19411000
Sep 18400003
Sep 16411002
Sep 15400013
Sep 14411000
Sep 13400011

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Austin Riley bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Austin Riley with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.3%43.3%
Whiff%26.8%23.5%
Contact%73.2%76.5%
Chase%36.1%39.4%
wOBA.262.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes29.2%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.312
K%34.0%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%13.8%
Barrel%8.0%
Hard-hit%25.4%
Avg EV91.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

224 PA
wOBA.304
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/100-0.31
Hard-hit%24.7%
K%34.0%
BB%6.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Austin Riley: every projection we've made →