MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 3Matt Olson
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.343wOBA vs RHP.353xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .397 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .372 vs league .330 (hitter's edge).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .367 vs league .326 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .336 vs league .292 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .332 vs league .290 (hitter's edge).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Matt Olson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Matt Olson's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.4 mph at 31°Out: 100.3 mph at 42°Out: 101.0 mph at 39°Out: 94.1 mph at 67°Out: 106.4 mph at 17°Out: 97.4 mph at -17°Out: 105.8 mph at 0°Home run: 107.4 mph at 32°Out: 104.7 mph at 9°Double: 67.5 mph at 43°Out: 101.3 mph at -8°Out: 98.6 mph at -13°Out: 87.0 mph at 67°Out: 107.5 mph at 5°Single: 97.2 mph at -1°Out: 99.0 mph at -3°Out: 99.5 mph at -22°Single: 106.0 mph at 15°Out: 77.0 mph at 37°Out: 54.4 mph at 57°Single: 74.9 mph at -21°Single: 89.7 mph at 8°Single: 109.2 mph at 9°Home run: 102.8 mph at 30°Out: 90.4 mph at 76°Out: 83.8 mph at 56°Out: 54.1 mph at -61°Single: 37.0 mph at 7°Out: 96.9 mph at 41°Single: 48.5 mph at -12°Single: 109.5 mph at 17°Out: 64.4 mph at -49°Out: 100.7 mph at -7°Out: 86.5 mph at -27°Home run: 101.9 mph at 30°Single: 80.6 mph at 20°Single: 98.0 mph at -11°Out: 100.9 mph at -2°Out: 90.3 mph at 43°Out: 101.1 mph at 40°
57% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.2%61.4%+2.9
2+ total bases46.1%43.3%+2.8
Home run21.5%19.8%+1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-1.5
Home run
Starter
+3.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-2.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Matt Olson hits
Where they meet

.338 xwOBA for Matt Olson in the spots Janson Junk throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (+28 points). His best spot against righties is down-middle, and Janson Junk puts 8% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Janson Junk · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing12%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing10%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing21%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 247 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters11%3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37%17% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Changeup · 107 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%26% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Slider · 95 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Curveball · 81 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%40% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters40%
Sweeper · 60 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%22% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Matt Olson · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .224 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.248xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .207 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 48 pitches seen.259xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .396 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 32 pitches seen.320xwOBA .449 shrunk (raw .500 on 25 PA) · league .342 · 63 pitches seen.449xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .362 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 47 pitches seen.371xwOBA .417 shrunk (raw .494 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 44 pitches seen.417xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .178 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 41 pitches seen.246xwOBA .460 shrunk (raw .542 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.460xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .060 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 24 pitches seen.246xwOBA .393 shrunk (raw .407 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 138 pitches seen.393xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .264 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 53 pitches seen.269xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .324 on 29 PA) · league .263 · 140 pitches seen.306xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .336 on 39 PA) · league .274 · 177 pitches seen.321
vs RHP · 888 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 21 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 21% of 34 swings · league 20%21%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 19%26%Whiff 17% of 46 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 40 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 14% of 36 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 18% of 39 swings · league 13%18%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 58% of 19 swings · league 28%58%Whiff 38% of 21 swings · league 24%38%Whiff 23% of 40 swings · league 32%23%Whiff 39% of 67 swings · league 49%39%
vs RHP · 888 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 66% of 32 pitches · league 62%66%Swings at 71% of 48 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 72% of 32 pitches · league 66%72%Swings at 73% of 63 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 85% of 47 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 82% of 44 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 54% of 41 pitches · league 65%54%Swings at 80% of 49 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 50% of 24 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 14% of 138 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 40% of 53 pitches · league 34%40%Swings at 29% of 140 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 38% of 177 pitches · league 32%38%
vs RHP · 888 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Matt Olson against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.397.35520.2%16.9%689Hits these better than most
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.372.33026.1%26.7%455Hits these better than most
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.367.32622.7%23.6%188Hits these better than most
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.336.29221.9%27.8%265Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.332.29027.1%29.1%176Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Matt Olson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.077.000.054.20515.4%7.7%19.0%96.4106.40.0%70.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1341.278.317.444.346.3327.3%7.3%15.8%93.0109.58.6%62.9%34.3%
Last 30 G2685.208.259.338.272.32717.6%7.1%20.7%93.8110.49.4%62.5%32.8%
90 days69218.230.317.482.351.36623.4%11.0%23.1%93.5110.715.5%55.6%36.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 142 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.4291.000.593.6400.0%0.0%23.1%98.4107.514.3%85.7%28.6%
Last 15 G1022.286.318.619.393.39322.7%4.5%32.6%90.1107.512.5%68.8%31.2%
Last 30 G2041.231.268.436.302.28426.8%4.9%33.3%87.5107.57.1%53.6%21.4%
90 days58120.239.283.496.339.31630.8%5.0%27.0%90.2110.314.5%50.0%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 17%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.167.200.389.242.35710.0%5.0%20.6%97.2107.55.9%76.5%23.5%
Last 15 G1563.281.317.509.363.35312.7%6.3%21.8%92.1109.59.8%64.7%33.3%
Last 30 G30126.216.262.371.282.31320.6%6.3%24.9%91.9110.48.7%59.8%29.3%
90 days79338.234.305.487.347.34826.0%8.9%24.5%92.4110.715.1%53.7%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 218 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 11%
Matt Olson · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.343 / .364running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker96.778.431.125Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.9100.342.118Out
Sep 24RHPCutter86.2101.039.303Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.194.167.008Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.5106.417.660Sac fly
Sep 24RHPFastball94.497.4-17.132Out
Sep 24LHPFastball96.4105.80.480Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper81.7107.4321.809Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball92.0104.79.722Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper84.467.543.369Double
Sep 23RHPCutter98.7101.3-8.221Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker94.698.6-13.198Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300010
Sep 24500000
Sep 23426100
Sep 22411000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19422000
Sep 18536100
Sep 16411001
Sep 15422001
Sep 14400013

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Matt Olson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Matt Olson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.1%41.3%
Whiff%19.4%21.6%
Contact%80.6%78.4%
Chase%35.6%39.4%
wOBA.291.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.8%22.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.347
K%25.7%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%9.2%
Hard-hit%33.6%
Avg EV92.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

217 PA
wOBA.343
xwOBA vs this mix.353against pitches like his
RV/1000.62
Hard-hit%34.8%
K%23.7%
BB%8.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Matt Olson: every projection we've made →