MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 4Michael Harris II
Bats leftTalent grade CPowerHot
.342wOBA vs RHP.307xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .367 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .343 vs league .330 (about even).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .338 vs league .326 (about even).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .304 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .302 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Michael Harris II's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Michael Harris II's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 111.6 mph at 1°Out: 88.1 mph at 82°Single: 36.3 mph at -73°Out: 100.6 mph at 37°Double: 110.3 mph at 12°Out: 101.9 mph at 24°Single: 96.3 mph at -32°Out: 96.7 mph at 25°Out: 74.8 mph at -1°Out: 99.3 mph at 42°Out: 96.4 mph at -10°Single: 107.7 mph at 10°Out: 61.6 mph at -1°Out: 110.3 mph at 4°Double: 110.8 mph at 16°Out: 90.4 mph at 71°Out: 77.3 mph at 5°Out: 84.6 mph at 63°Out: 85.3 mph at -9°Out: 77.6 mph at -31°Out: 72.3 mph at 49°Single: 109.2 mph at 6°Home run: 101.8 mph at 28°Out: 91.9 mph at 30°Single: 107.9 mph at -2°Single: 78.6 mph at 21°Out: 86.8 mph at 21°Out: 76.0 mph at 2°Out: 101.8 mph at 14°Out: 80.0 mph at -34°Out: 105.3 mph at -6°Single: 77.6 mph at 15°Out: 82.4 mph at -35°Single: 100.1 mph at -15°Out: 93.0 mph at 27°Single: 98.9 mph at 9°Single: 67.0 mph at 26°Single: 90.6 mph at 19°Single: 91.2 mph at -9°Single: 95.7 mph at 4°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.5%66.6%+1.9
2+ total bases43.3%41.6%+1.8
Home run12.6%12.2%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Michael Harris II hits
Where they meet

.303 xwOBA for Michael Harris II in the spots Janson Junk throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (-7 points). His best spot against righties is down-middle, and Janson Junk puts 8% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Janson Junk · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing12%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing10%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing21%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 247 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters11%3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37%17% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Changeup · 107 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%26% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Slider · 95 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Curveball · 81 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%40% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters40%
Sweeper · 60 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%22% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Michael Harris II · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .349 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 31 pitches seen.306xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .501 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 32 pitches seen.395xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .124 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.212xwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .462 on 16 PA) · league .342 · 43 pitches seen.411xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .291 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 43 pitches seen.328xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .251 on 18 PA) · league .321 · 36 pitches seen.279xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .298 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 39 pitches seen.302xwOBA .493 shrunk (raw .606 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 30 pitches seen.493xwOBA .379 shrunk (raw .441 on 17 PA) · league .292 · 42 pitches seen.379xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .326 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 110 pitches seen.350xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .121 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 52 pitches seen.204xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .194 on 35 PA) · league .263 · 136 pitches seen.212xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .189 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 131 pitches seen.214
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 22%16%Whiff 0% of 25 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 19%23%Whiff 7% of 28 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 8% of 38 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 3% of 29 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 27% of 30 swings · league 14%27%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 28%31%Whiff 27% of 26 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 32% of 68 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 38% of 68 swings · league 49%38%
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 81% of 31 pitches · league 62%81%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 88% of 43 pitches · league 76%88%Swings at 81% of 36 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 77% of 39 pitches · league 65%77%Swings at 77% of 30 pitches · league 68%77%Swings at 71% of 42 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 24% of 110 pitches · league 24%24%Swings at 50% of 52 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 50% of 136 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 52% of 131 pitches · league 32%52%
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Michael Harris II against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.367.35516.4%16.9%387About league average vs these
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.343.33025.3%26.7%244About league average vs these
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.338.32622.9%23.6%106About league average vs these
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.304.29227.9%27.8%235About league average vs these
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.302.29029.1%29.1%143About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Michael Harris II · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.500.454.4157.7%7.7%16.0%92.7111.618.2%63.6%27.3%
Last 15 G1440.256.275.462.338.34412.5%2.5%16.9%91.8111.611.8%44.1%35.3%
Last 30 G2781.260.288.506.363.34117.3%3.7%18.7%89.7111.610.9%43.8%37.5%
90 days71217.281.296.486.345.30819.8%2.3%20.7%90.9111.66.5%48.2%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.167.286.167.229.4130.0%14.3%20.0%91.7110.30.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1123.381.435.381.374.36813.0%8.7%24.4%88.7110.30.0%38.9%44.4%
Last 30 G2040.297.333.378.346.31517.5%5.0%21.1%84.5110.30.0%38.7%41.9%
90 days57113.276.312.429.335.31914.2%4.4%19.8%83.8112.84.4%38.9%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.278.350.389.375.4145.0%10.0%17.5%92.4111.611.8%64.7%29.4%
Last 15 G1563.300.333.433.351.35312.7%4.8%19.7%90.7111.67.7%42.3%38.5%
Last 30 G30121.272.303.465.358.33217.4%4.1%19.5%88.0111.67.4%42.1%38.9%
90 days79330.279.302.467.341.31217.9%3.0%20.4%88.4112.85.8%45.0%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 258 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 8%
Michael Harris II · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating61Average
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.345 / .328running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider88.5111.61.527Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper86.688.182.003Out
Sep 24RHPSinker90.836.3-73.223Single
Sep 24RHPFastball98.6100.637.521Out
Sep 24RHPSinker89.4110.312.886Double
Sep 24RHPFastball94.0101.9241.020Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.596.3-32.085Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper83.696.725.387Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.074.8-1.129Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper82.999.342.102Out
Sep 23RHPCutter97.196.4-10.278Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.8107.710.876Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 24534000
Sep 23400000
Sep 22423000
Sep 20400020
Sep 19400000
Sep 18536101
Sep 16411001
Sep 15400001
Sep 14422000

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Michael Harris II bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Michael Harris II with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.8%41.3%
Whiff%22.1%21.6%
Contact%77.9%78.4%
Chase%55.9%39.4%
wOBA.258.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.2%22.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.332
K%18.5%
BB%3.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%34.4%
Avg EV88.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

217 PA
wOBA.342
xwOBA vs this mix.307against pitches like his
RV/1000.16
Hard-hit%35.9%
K%19.9%
BB%3.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Michael Harris II: every projection we've made →