MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 1Otto Lopez
Bats rightTalent grade AvgPowerNormal
.344wOBA vs RHP.323xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .310 vs league .281 (hitter's edge).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .373 vs league .344 (hitter's edge).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .373 vs league .345 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .335 vs league .308 (hitter's edge).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .340 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .323 vs league .294 (hitter's edge).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Otto Lopez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Otto Lopez's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 103.9 mph at -22°Out: 91.7 mph at 37°Single: 85.7 mph at 11°Out: 103.5 mph at 0°Out: 93.5 mph at -30°Single: 71.4 mph at 25°Single: 95.2 mph at 6°Out: 95.4 mph at -2°Out: 83.0 mph at 2°Out: 63.1 mph at 11°Single: 64.9 mph at 21°Out: 101.7 mph at -31°Out: 84.8 mph at -18°Out: 102.4 mph at 23°Out: 100.4 mph at -10°Out: 85.0 mph at -17°Home run: 99.4 mph at 23°Out: 103.1 mph at 7°Out: 80.8 mph at 28°Single: 95.6 mph at 17°Double: 100.0 mph at 24°Out: 92.6 mph at -2°Out: 91.2 mph at 59°Single: 100.3 mph at 16°Out: 93.5 mph at 42°Out: 94.7 mph at 29°Single: 99.5 mph at 14°Out: 68.5 mph at 8°Out: 83.8 mph at 27°Out: 99.0 mph at 32°Out: 105.3 mph at 0°Out: 90.9 mph at 64°Out: 94.5 mph at 45°Single: 110.0 mph at 9°Out: 70.8 mph at -27°Single: 91.0 mph at 12°Single: 74.7 mph at 0°Out: 110.8 mph at -8°Single: 80.7 mph at 0°Single: 108.6 mph at 0°
45% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.2%67.0%-1.9
2+ total bases35.9%37.7%-1.8
Home run7.5%8.7%-1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Otto Lopez hits
Where they meet

.320 xwOBA for Otto Lopez in the spots JR Ritchie throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (+12 points). His best spot against righties is up-left, and JR Ritchie puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

JR Ritchie · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing28%
All · 195 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%40% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Curveball · 72 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters15%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 68 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%23% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters23%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Otto Lopez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .475 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.324xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .349 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 32 pitches seen.327xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .265 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 24 pitches seen.264xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .289 on 23 PA) · league .342 · 50 pitches seen.307xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .383 on 25 PA) · league .386 · 67 pitches seen.384xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .350 on 27 PA) · league .321 · 61 pitches seen.341xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .270 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 45 pitches seen.285xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .307 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.324xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .254 on 29 PA) · league .292 · 73 pitches seen.265xwOBA .417 shrunk (raw .446 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 73 pitches seen.417xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .344 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 54 pitches seen.295xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .235 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 65 pitches seen.250xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .307 on 43 PA) · league .274 · 281 pitches seen.300
vs RHP · 894 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 19%15%Whiff 3% of 34 swings · league 10%3%Whiff 5% of 43 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 3% of 40 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 7% of 28 swings · league 14%7%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 13% of 45 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 28%13%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 24%18%Whiff 23% of 26 swings · league 32%23%Whiff 41% of 69 swings · league 49%41%
vs RHP · 894 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 40% of 20 pitches · league 62%40%Swings at 63% of 32 pitches · league 72%63%Swings at 54% of 24 pitches · league 66%54%Swings at 68% of 50 pitches · league 70%68%Swings at 64% of 67 pitches · league 76%64%Swings at 66% of 61 pitches · league 70%66%Swings at 62% of 45 pitches · league 65%62%Swings at 65% of 49 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 62% of 73 pitches · league 60%62%Swings at 32% of 73 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 32% of 54 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 40% of 65 pitches · league 40%40%Swings at 25% of 281 pitches · league 32%25%
vs RHP · 894 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Otto Lopez against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.310.28124.0%30.4%76About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.373.3446.1%11.8%262About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.373.3459.7%18.3%324About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.335.30825.4%31.9%121About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.340.31216.0%28.7%218About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.323.29425.7%32.8%229About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Otto Lopez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.167.333.167.260.35313.3%13.3%16.7%91.7103.910.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1553.286.434.381.378.38715.1%13.2%19.6%91.3110.08.8%50.0%44.1%
Last 30 G3091.312.407.390.372.36113.2%8.8%17.5%90.0110.06.1%47.0%36.4%
90 days74243.276.346.387.343.32111.1%7.8%14.8%87.4110.04.7%39.3%33.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 191 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 20%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.286.257.31814.3%0.0%19.0%84.8103.50.0%16.7%50.0%
Last 15 G917.438.471.562.453.35511.8%5.9%13.5%85.5110.80.0%14.3%35.7%
Last 30 G2045.250.311.425.318.31517.8%8.9%18.2%85.6110.86.1%27.3%24.2%
90 days4191.244.275.390.297.31215.4%5.5%18.4%88.8110.85.6%35.2%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.211.318.211.259.34213.6%9.1%17.8%89.1103.96.2%43.8%31.2%
Last 15 G1570.328.443.431.396.37914.3%11.4%17.8%89.6110.86.2%39.6%41.7%
Last 30 G30136.291.375.402.354.34514.7%8.8%17.7%88.5110.86.1%40.4%32.3%
90 days74334.268.326.388.330.31812.3%7.2%15.9%87.8110.85.0%38.2%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 262 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
Otto Lopez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches90trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.336 / .332results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider86.5103.9-22.168Out
Sep 25LHPSinker94.091.737.061Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball81.285.711.593Single
Sep 24LHPFastball92.5103.50.429Out
Sep 24LHPSlider82.893.5-30.070Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.071.425.890Single
Sep 23RHPFastball93.195.26.484Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.395.4-2.321Force out
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.183.02.269Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter82.763.111.186Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper87.864.921.558Single
Sep 22RHPFastball99.1101.7-31.076Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24411010
Sep 23411001
Sep 22611001
Sep 20400001
Sep 19614121
Sep 18423000
Sep 16522001
Sep 15500021
Sep 14500003

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Otto Lopez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Otto Lopez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%31.5%43.3%
Whiff%17.6%23.5%
Contact%82.4%76.5%
Chase%45.9%39.4%
wOBA.265.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.0%25.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgPower type
wOBA.330
K%12.6%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%7.5%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%30.1%
Avg EV87.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

240 PA
wOBA.344
xwOBA vs this mix.323against pitches like his
RV/1000.35
Hard-hit%30.7%
K%11.9%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Otto Lopez: every projection we've made →