MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · NYY · batting 6Spencer Jones
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.300wOBA vs RHP.333xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · BALShane Baz
Throws rightBTB Stuff 98Trending Down
5.9projected K20%K%2.5trips vs this hitter
Shane Baz's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 96.3 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .328 vs league .345 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 41%Curveball: 27% usage, 84.9 mph, -6.4″ arm side, -11.5″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .266 vs league .283 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 27%Cutter: 11% usage, 89.8 mph, -2.9″ arm side, +7.3″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .332 vs league .349 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 11%Changeup: 10% usage, 88.5 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +9.0″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .315 vs league .332 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 10%Slider: 7% usage, 87.3 mph, -2.4″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .321 vs league .338 (pitcher's edge).Slider 7%Sinker: 3% usage, 95.2 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .341 vs league .358 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Spencer Jones's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%55.8%-0.1
2+ total bases36.7%35.4%+1.3
Home run17.0%14.6%+2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.5
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Spencer Jones hits
Shane Baz · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing5%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing19%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing6%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing20%
All · 896 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%24% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters24%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 381 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%7% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%42% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters42%
Curveball · 304 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%23% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters23%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters27% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters27%13% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters13%
Changeup · 152 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters20% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters20%
Cutter · 54 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Spencer Jones against each of Shane Baz's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%96.3+10″ / +17″.328.34535.2%19.8%73About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball27%84.9-6″ / -12″.266.28348.5%32.9%20About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter11%89.8-3″ / +7″.332.34937.0%21.3%32About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup10%88.5+15″ / +9″.315.33239.1%22.5%37About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider7%87.3-2″ / +4″.321.33840.1%25.8%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker3%95.2+15″ / +12″.341.35830.4%16.6%53About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating92Top tier
Last 100 pitches63trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .369running 23 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Shane Baz BAL · RHPwith two strikes
Shane Baz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball33%43%18.4%17.8%20.7%
Fastball34%35%14.6%20.0%18.3%
Changeup11%12%21.4%14.9%18.4%
Cutter12%7%25.0%18.5%18.7%
Sinker10%4%8.3%11.8%17.7%
Other0%0%–0.0%17.9%
Spencer Jones bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Spencer Jones with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%53.0%41.3%
Whiff%29.9%21.6%
Contact%70.1%78.4%
Chase%36.2%39.4%
wOBA.224.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes32.5%24.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.331
K%32.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%18.2%
Barrel%8.3%
Hard-hit%28.9%
Avg EV92.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

167 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.333against pitches like his
RV/100-0.13
Hard-hit%29.5%
K%33.9%
BB%7.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Shane BazRHP · BAL vs NYY
5.9projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 16.0%16%≤34 strikeouts: 13.7%14%45 strikeouts: 16.1%16%56 strikeouts: 16.0%16%67 strikeouts: 13.4%13%78 strikeouts: 10.1%10%89+ strikeouts: 14.7%15%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff98
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball34%10095.66.8%
Curveball33%10285.311.3%
Cutter12%10889.810.0%
Changeup11%7887.211.8%
Sinker10%9195.37.9%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 21937%3%19%.254
Sep 156810%7%43%.419
Sep 910019%5%35%.387

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Shane Baz BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

6 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Spencer Jones: every projection we've made →