MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 27, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 1Carlos Jorge
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TORTBD
Stable
4.2projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Carlos Jorge's last 27 balls in playHit (7)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 28.2 mph at 41°Out: 95.2 mph at -24°Single: 90.0 mph at 15°Out: 90.9 mph at -9°Out: 82.3 mph at 3°Out: 94.3 mph at 21°Home run: 101.0 mph at 32°Out: 63.2 mph at -9°Single: 68.7 mph at 24°Out: 82.1 mph at -34°Out: 75.4 mph at 10°Out: 92.1 mph at 6°Out: 28.1 mph at 0°Triple: 96.8 mph at 18°Out: 81.0 mph at 67°Out: 93.1 mph at 23°Out: 69.3 mph at -11°Out: 70.7 mph at 9°Out: 60.4 mph at 38°Out: 80.3 mph at 12°Single: 93.8 mph at 1°Out: 72.8 mph at -5°Single: 57.6 mph at -42°Out: 101.7 mph at 35°Out: 97.7 mph at 7°Out: 71.7 mph at 41°Out: 84.2 mph at 33°
19% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot26% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.4%59.1%+0.3
2+ total bases35.5%35.1%+0.5
Home run11.5%11.0%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Carlos Jorge hits
Carlos Jorge · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .226 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seen.262xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .289 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 3 pitches seen.306xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .256 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seen.262xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .008 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 9 pitches seen.316xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .891 on 1 PA) · league .386 · 11 pitches seen.425xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .222 on 2 PA) · league .321 · 5 pitches seen.307xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .204 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.277xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .338 on 4 PA) · league .351 · 15 pitches seen.348xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .221 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 7 pitches seen.278xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .212 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 17 pitches seen.353xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .883 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seen.321xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .188 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 21 pitches seen.238xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .144 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.226
vs RHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 10%33%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 13%23%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 32%14%Whiff 62% of 13 swings · league 49%62%
vs RHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 62%86%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 68%87%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 60%100%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 24%41%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 33% of 21 pitches · league 40%33%Swings at 45% of 29 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carlos Jorge · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.200.200.400.313.21933.3%0.0%23.5%78.1101.010.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1438.167.211.306.250.24428.9%5.3%25.9%78.4101.74.0%20.0%32.0%
Last 30 G1438.167.211.306.250.24428.9%5.3%25.9%78.4101.74.0%20.0%32.0%
90 days1438.167.211.306.250.24428.9%5.3%25.9%78.4101.74.0%20.0%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 25 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9160.0%0.0%0.0%90.090.00.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G23.333.333.333.300.42333.3%0.0%50.0%80.890.00.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 30 G23.333.333.333.300.42333.3%0.0%50.0%80.890.00.0%0.0%50.0%
90 days23.333.333.333.300.42333.3%0.0%50.0%80.890.00.0%0.0%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 2 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 50%Fly ball 50%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.250.250.438.350.26231.2%0.0%22.9%79.2101.09.1%18.2%45.5%
Last 15 G1441.179.220.308.254.25729.3%4.9%27.0%78.6101.73.7%18.5%33.3%
Last 30 G1441.179.220.308.254.25729.3%4.9%27.0%78.6101.73.7%18.5%33.3%
90 days1441.179.220.308.254.25729.3%4.9%27.0%78.6101.73.7%18.5%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 27 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.256 / .294running 38 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter90.628.241.256Single
Sep 25RHPCurveball84.995.2-24.115Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper85.690.015.916Single
Sep 25RHPSinker96.190.9-9.222Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.982.33.287Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter84.194.321.222Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.9101.032.909Home run
Sep 22RHPSinker93.763.2-9.071Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball77.968.724.883Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup92.882.1-34.055Error
Sep 19RHPSplitter86.675.410.260Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.392.16.429Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25522001
Sep 24414101
Sep 22511003
Sep 20100000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18413010
Sep 17100000
Sep 15300011
Sep 14100001
Sep 11300001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carlos Jorge: every projection we've made →