MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 8Colson Montgomery
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.321wOBA vs LHP.303xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .368 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .302 vs league .288 (about even).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .282 vs league .268 (about even).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .348 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .323 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .278 vs league .264 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Colson Montgomery's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.8%46.4%+5.4
2+ total bases34.2%30.0%+4.2
Home run15.6%13.3%+2.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Colson Montgomery hits
Kyle Freeland · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing9%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing9%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%27% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing27%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing7%
All · 310 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%23% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters23%
Sinker · 80 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 67 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Fastball · 60 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%50% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters50%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%43% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters43%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters
Sweeper · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Colson Montgomery against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.368.35324.5%17.5%73About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.302.28841.8%31.7%40About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.282.26836.7%33.1%29About league average vs these
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.348.33417.9%12.4%81About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.323.30935.2%27.8%19About league average vs these
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.278.26436.8%33.0%48About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating16Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.268 / .273results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Colson Montgomery bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Colson Montgomery with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.3%44.3%
Whiff%30.2%23.6%
Contact%69.8%76.4%
Chase%33.9%38.0%
wOBA.223.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes32.2%25.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.302
K%37.7%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%15.8%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%19.6%
Avg EV87.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

96 PA
wOBA.321
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/100-0.02
Hard-hit%21.9%
K%28.8%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Colson Montgomery: every projection we've made →