MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 1Sam Antonacci
Bats leftTalent grade BContactHot
.331wOBA vs LHP.318xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .349 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .283 vs league .288 (about even).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .263 vs league .268 (about even).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .329 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .304 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .260 vs league .264 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sam Antonacci's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sam Antonacci's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.9 mph at 2°Single: 88.3 mph at 9°Single: 97.9 mph at 14°Single: 95.8 mph at 13°Out: 91.8 mph at 35°Single: 100.6 mph at 13°Out: 77.1 mph at -12°Single: 95.3 mph at -2°Out: 62.9 mph at 39°Single: 101.9 mph at 13°Out: 99.2 mph at 28°Out: 101.1 mph at -6°Out: 87.4 mph at 25°Double: 96.3 mph at 7°Out: 94.4 mph at 0°Out: 90.8 mph at 33°Single: 101.8 mph at 10°Out: 94.8 mph at 36°Out: 84.6 mph at -7°Out: 81.3 mph at -13°Out: 97.2 mph at -7°Out: 63.7 mph at -84°Out: 96.1 mph at 40°Out: 99.5 mph at 25°Single: 89.7 mph at 6°Single: 89.3 mph at 18°Out: 58.7 mph at 26°Out: 98.1 mph at 16°Out: 90.2 mph at -24°Single: 96.5 mph at -7°Triple: 100.2 mph at 13°Out: 92.2 mph at -24°Out: 102.2 mph at 7°Out: 96.7 mph at 26°Single: 92.9 mph at 13°Out: 89.9 mph at 3°Out: 95.8 mph at -19°Single: 72.1 mph at 37°Single: 67.4 mph at 29°Out: 74.7 mph at 88°
45% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.3%63.5%+2.9
2+ total bases38.3%36.4%+1.9
Home run6.7%7.9%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sam Antonacci hits
Where they meet

.315 xwOBA for Sam Antonacci in the spots Kyle Freeland throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (+9 points). His best spot against lefties is up and right, outside, and Kyle Freeland puts 11% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kyle Freeland · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing9%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing9%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%27% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing27%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing7%
All · 310 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%23% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters23%
Sinker · 80 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 67 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Fastball · 60 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%50% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters50%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%43% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters43%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters
Sweeper · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Sam Antonacci · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .247 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.243xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .265 on 7 PA) · league .296 · 19 pitches seen.285xwOBA .220 shrunk (raw .016 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.220xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .308 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 12 pitches seen.308xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .102 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 22 pitches seen.281xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .171 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 14 pitches seen.306xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .575 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 10 pitches seen.316xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .255 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 10 pitches seen.331xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .441 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seen.327xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 19 pitches seen.332xwOBA .472 shrunk (raw .724 on 6 PA) · league .346 · 17 pitches seen.472xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .328 on 17 PA) · league .289 · 82 pitches seen.312xwOBA .220 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 7 pitches seen.220
vs LHP · 238 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 21%33%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 25%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 18% of 28 swings · league 48%18%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 238 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 38% of 8 pitches · league 63%38%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 71%63%Swings at 42% of 12 pitches · league 64%42%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 67%75%Swings at 68% of 22 pitches · league 76%68%Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 72%50%Swings at 40% of 10 pitches · league 59%40%Swings at 40% of 10 pitches · league 68%40%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 5% of 19 pitches · league 30%5%Swings at 0% of 17 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 34% of 82 pitches · league 31%34%Swings at 14% of 7 pitches · league 41%14%
vs LHP · 238 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Sam Antonacci against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.349.35310.2%17.5%25About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.283.28819.8%31.7%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.263.26823.1%33.1%9About league average vs these
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.329.3347.1%12.4%34About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.304.30919.9%27.8%8About league average vs these
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.260.26423.1%33.0%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sam Antonacci · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.1600.0%0.0%25.0%96.4101.10.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G611.111.273.111.209.31518.2%0.0%15.8%85.0101.10.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 30 G1116.231.375.231.300.29918.8%6.2%13.0%81.6101.10.0%30.0%40.0%
90 days3658.286.397.327.338.31819.0%6.9%13.8%81.0102.40.0%23.7%44.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.444.476.500.426.4610.0%4.8%0.0%91.2101.95.3%47.4%42.1%
Last 15 G1545.381.400.452.374.4084.4%2.2%5.8%90.1103.04.9%43.9%41.5%
Last 30 G30103.311.388.422.369.3639.7%8.7%10.1%88.4103.03.7%32.1%40.7%
90 days73238.254.338.388.332.32413.4%8.4%10.6%88.2107.33.4%32.4%35.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 179 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.400.435.450.389.4350.0%4.3%3.2%91.7101.94.8%47.6%38.1%
Last 15 G1556.333.375.392.342.3907.1%1.8%8.0%89.3103.04.2%43.8%41.7%
Last 30 G30119.301.387.398.360.35410.9%8.4%10.5%87.7103.03.3%31.9%40.7%
90 days75296.260.349.376.333.32314.5%8.1%11.2%87.0107.32.8%30.9%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 217 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 2%
Sam Antonacci · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating61Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.333 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter88.584.92.284Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter87.588.39.488Single
Sep 25RHPFastball94.597.914.873Single
Sep 25RHPFastball92.995.813.907Single
Sep 24LHPFastball95.291.835.063Out
Sep 24RHPFastball89.2100.613.915Single
Sep 24RHPCutter89.577.1-12.054Out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.295.3-2.299Single
Sep 24RHPFastball93.862.939.350Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.3101.913.892Single
Sep 23RHPFastball99.299.228.780Out
Sep 23LHPSinker90.1101.1-6.258Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25433000
Sep 24622010
Sep 23511000
Sep 20423000
Sep 19400000
Sep 18200000
Sep 16100000
Sep 15422001
Sep 14311000
Sep 13413000

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Sam Antonacci bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sam Antonacci with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.3%44.3%
Whiff%20.9%23.6%
Contact%79.1%76.4%
Chase%41.8%38.0%
wOBA.221.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.7%25.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.327
K%15.7%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%5.7%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%23.2%
Avg EV87.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

58 PA
wOBA.331
xwOBA vs this mix.318against pitches like his
RV/1000.26
Hard-hit%19.2%
K%19.8%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sam Antonacci: every projection we've made →