MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 2Dominic Canzone
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedHot
.373wOBA vs LHP.362xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · LAAYusei Kikuchi
Throws leftBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
4.9projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yusei Kikuchi's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 42% usage, 95.2 mph, +9.1″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .356 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 42%Slider: 27% usage, 87.5 mph, -2.8″ arm side, +2.8″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .290 vs league .277 (about even).Slider 27%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.9 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .280 vs league .266 (about even).Curveball 12%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.8 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .333 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 10%Cutter: 7% usage, 91.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .332 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dominic Canzone's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dominic Canzone's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 94.2 mph at 18°Home run: 100.8 mph at 31°Single: 100.8 mph at 10°Out: 106.3 mph at 22°Out: 80.5 mph at -48°Out: 70.7 mph at -22°Out: 91.5 mph at 30°Single: 112.0 mph at 17°Single: 98.2 mph at 16°Out: 75.8 mph at -13°Out: 97.6 mph at -2°Out: 82.0 mph at 43°Single: 72.1 mph at 32°Out: 76.3 mph at 32°Out: 87.1 mph at 82°Out: 88.3 mph at -3°Single: 99.2 mph at 0°Double: 110.5 mph at 11°Single: 104.2 mph at 16°Out: 91.4 mph at 30°Out: 99.1 mph at 20°Double: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 83.9 mph at 24°Out: 91.3 mph at 38°Out: 54.8 mph at -4°Single: 87.1 mph at -6°Out: 102.9 mph at -1°Triple: 102.8 mph at 27°Out: 85.9 mph at 58°Out: 106.8 mph at 1°Out: 65.8 mph at -46°Out: 70.4 mph at -72°Single: 104.8 mph at 6°Out: 96.6 mph at 29°Out: 83.2 mph at 68°Double: 101.4 mph at 22°Out: 90.5 mph at 21°Single: 83.3 mph at 18°Out: 98.1 mph at -26°Home run: 99.2 mph at 27°
48% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.4%66.1%-1.7
2+ total bases37.1%39.8%-2.6
Home run13.4%15.8%-2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Dominic Canzone hits
Where they meet

.339 xwOBA for Dominic Canzone in the spots Yusei Kikuchi throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .302 (+36 points). His best spot against lefties is up and right, outside, and Yusei Kikuchi puts 8% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Yusei Kikuchi · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing5%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing8%31% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing31%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%
All · 159 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%23% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters23%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 82 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%41% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters41%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters
Slider · 49 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%32% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters32%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Curveball · 22 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Dominic Canzone · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .347 on 7 PA) · league .243 · 17 pitches seen.281xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .599 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 22 pitches seen.385xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .175 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.234xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .231 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 31 pitches seen.277xwOBA .487 shrunk (raw .609 on 10 PA) · league .385 · 35 pitches seen.487xwOBA .439 shrunk (raw .588 on 8 PA) · league .340 · 20 pitches seen.439xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .106 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 25 pitches seen.217xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .266 on 10 PA) · league .350 · 21 pitches seen.312xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .010 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 17 pitches seen.227xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .251 on 5 PA) · league .302 · 49 pitches seen.287xwOBA .459 shrunk (raw .556 on 14 PA) · league .346 · 45 pitches seen.459xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .418 on 20 PA) · league .289 · 133 pitches seen.370xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .163 on 10 PA) · league .257 · 33 pitches seen.214
vs LHP · 460 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 21%20%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 10% of 21 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 39% of 13 swings · league 17%39%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 14%6%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 25%18%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 29%18%Whiff 53% of 30 swings · league 48%53%Whiff 31% of 16 swings · league 34%31%
vs LHP · 460 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 63%41%Swings at 46% of 22 pitches · league 71%46%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 64%58%Swings at 48% of 31 pitches · league 67%48%Swings at 60% of 35 pitches · league 76%60%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 52% of 25 pitches · league 59%52%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 68%76%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 66%41%Swings at 22% of 49 pitches · league 30%22%Swings at 49% of 45 pitches · league 26%49%Swings at 23% of 133 pitches · league 31%23%Swings at 49% of 33 pitches · league 41%49%
vs LHP · 460 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Dominic Canzone against each of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball42%95.2+9″ / +16″.356.34318.0%18.9%58About league average vs these
Slider27%87.5-3″ / +3″.290.27737.1%33.3%51About league average vs these
Curveball12%81.9-6″ / -5″.280.26636.6%32.8%44About league average vs these
Changeup10%86.8+12″ / +7″.333.31924.2%23.1%26About league average vs these
Cutter7%91.2-0″ / +9″.332.31824.9%25.8%48About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dominic Canzone · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.500.571.500.486.5480.0%14.3%12.5%86.2106.316.7%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1332.346.438.538.432.42512.5%15.6%20.0%90.3106.313.0%43.5%47.8%
Last 30 G2457.312.404.479.392.38114.0%12.3%19.8%88.1106.39.8%41.5%41.5%
90 days49113.284.389.484.385.37418.6%13.3%20.2%87.8108.49.3%41.3%34.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 20%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.333.333.600.397.34720.0%0.0%28.6%93.9112.016.7%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1334.303.324.545.369.36617.6%2.9%26.8%92.6112.014.8%48.1%51.9%
Last 30 G2877.257.286.473.328.35923.4%3.9%25.2%93.4112.814.5%47.3%41.8%
90 days68197.242.284.425.313.32622.3%5.6%25.3%90.8112.89.2%41.8%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 141 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.381.409.571.425.41113.6%4.5%25.0%91.3112.016.7%44.4%55.6%
Last 15 G1566.322.379.542.399.39415.2%9.1%23.6%91.5112.014.0%46.0%50.0%
Last 30 G30134.279.336.475.355.36919.4%7.5%23.1%91.1112.812.5%44.8%41.7%
90 days71310.256.323.445.339.34421.0%8.4%23.6%89.7112.89.3%41.7%34.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 216 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Dominic Canzone · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating81Excellent
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.338 / .352results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider86.494.218.482Single
Sep 25RHPSlider83.0100.8311.019Home run
Sep 25RHPChangeup91.8100.810.816Single
Sep 25LHPFastball94.1106.3221.415Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.680.5-48.117Out
Sep 24LHPSlider79.870.7-22.035Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball82.891.530.076Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.8112.0171.013Single
Sep 23LHPCutter84.898.216.628Single
Sep 23LHPSinker95.775.8-13.067Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.297.6-2.342Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.882.043.012Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25536110
Sep 24400001
Sep 23522000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20423001
Sep 19411020
Sep 18512010
Sep 16511020
Sep 15413000
Sep 14411002

Two strikes

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Yusei Kikuchi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%45%6.2%13.6%18.4%
Slider27%27%22.7%12.2%22.2%
Splitter12%16%23.1%20.7%20.7%
Curveball12%12%26.7%18.2%20.9%
Cutter0%1%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Dominic Canzone bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dominic Canzone with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.7%44.3%
Whiff%20.5%23.6%
Contact%79.5%76.4%
Chase%34.6%38.0%
wOBA.264.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%23.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.347
K%20.9%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%29.5%
Avg EV89.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

113 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.362against pitches like his
RV/1000.69
Hard-hit%27.5%
K%19.3%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA vs SEA
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.6 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 28.0%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.0%10%78 strikeouts: 6.1%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.4%6%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff97
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball49%9895.66.7%
Slider27%9087.910.3%
Splitter12%12286.413.6%
Curveball12%8780.012.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22889%5%50%.382
Sep 1610317%7%29%.428
Sep 118825%8%25%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dominic Canzone: every projection we've made →