MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 2Andrés Chaparro
Bats rightTalent grade CPowerCold
.404wOBA vs LHP.350xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · NYMSean Manaea
Throws leftBTB Stuff 87Trending Up
5.1projected K22%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Manaea's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +10.8″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .371 vs league .361 (about even).Sinker 30%Fastball: 28% usage, 91.8 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .374 vs league .364 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 16% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .318 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 16%Sweeper: 14% usage, 77.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .334 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 14%Slider: 9% usage, 83.4 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .344 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrés Chaparro's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.5%60.0%+2.6
2+ total bases42.3%37.9%+4.4
Home run20.4%14.5%+5.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
+5.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Andrés Chaparro hits
Sean Manaea · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing3%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 34% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing9%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing17%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing9%
All · 982 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%
Fastball · 442 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters14%27% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters27%13% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Sweeper · 271 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters16%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%
Sinker · 126 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%15% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters15%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%20% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters20%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Cutter · 86 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%37% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Changeup · 57 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Andrés Chaparro against each of Sean Manaea's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%92.3+16″ / +11″.371.36117.0%16.2%41About league average vs these
Fastball28%91.8+13″ / +12″.374.36416.8%15.9%47About league average vs these
Changeup16%85.0+13″ / +6″.318.30837.6%29.1%36About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper14%77.3-13″ / +2″.334.32426.8%25.0%12About league average vs these
Slider9%83.4-4″ / +3″.344.33429.9%28.2%22About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating83Excellent
Last 100 pitches65trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.412 / .355running 57 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Sean Manaea with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%48%26.9%23.8%18.4%
Sweeper29%33%25.9%19.5%21.2%
Sinker18%8%8.7%9.7%17.8%
Changeup4%7%6.7%7.7%18.3%
Cutter8%5%33.3%26.3%18.3%
Andrés Chaparro bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrés Chaparro with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.6%41.4%
Whiff%24.6%22.0%
Contact%75.4%78.0%
Chase%39.7%40.7%
wOBA.247.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.0%18.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.340
K%24.3%
BB%8.5%
Whiff%15.5%
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV88.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

96 PA
wOBA.404
xwOBA vs this mix.350against pitches like his
RV/1002.04
Hard-hit%30.3%
K%24.6%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM vs WSH
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.0 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.4%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.9%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.6%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.8%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo86.3
BTB Stuff87
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball41%9091.913.0%
Sweeper29%8476.512.3%
Sinker18%9190.62.0%
Cutter8%8284.911.5%
Changeup4%6784.83.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229935%16%27%.260
Sep 156732%9%32%.305
Sep 86120%10%35%.260

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrés Chaparro: every projection we've made →