MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 3Bo Bichette
Bats rightTalent grade BContactHot
.364wOBA vs LHP.359xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · WSHDJ Herz
Throws leftBTB Stuff 96Stable
3.4projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
DJ Herz's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 54% usage, 93.5 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Bo Bichette: wOBA .373 vs league .354 (hitter's edge).Fastball 54%Changeup: 25% usage, 83.5 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Bo Bichette: wOBA .350 vs league .329 (hitter's edge).Changeup 25%Slider: 18% usage, 86.3 mph, -0.1″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Bo Bichette: wOBA .354 vs league .334 (hitter's edge).Slider 18%Curveball: 3% usage, 81.2 mph, 0.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Bo Bichette: wOBA .343 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bo Bichette's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bo Bichette's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 108.2 mph at 25°Double: 91.3 mph at 12°Out: 40.7 mph at -52°Out: 102.3 mph at -10°Out: 100.3 mph at -2°Out: 91.1 mph at 27°Out: 80.3 mph at -3°Out: 75.6 mph at 9°Out: 86.5 mph at -2°Out: 97.3 mph at 33°Out: 91.2 mph at 7°Out: 66.6 mph at -37°Out: 97.7 mph at 22°Single: 108.6 mph at 14°Home run: 105.6 mph at 31°Out: 93.6 mph at 31°Out: 77.0 mph at 27°Out: 104.5 mph at 17°Single: 82.9 mph at 18°Out: 80.7 mph at 32°Out: 105.3 mph at -13°Single: 95.1 mph at 13°Out: 64.0 mph at -43°Out: 84.2 mph at 4°Out: 71.7 mph at -20°Single: 103.0 mph at 10°Out: 108.3 mph at -17°Single: 80.0 mph at -36°Single: 105.1 mph at 5°Out: 101.2 mph at -17°Out: 66.2 mph at -27°Single: 78.9 mph at 21°Out: 85.0 mph at -14°Single: 97.4 mph at 5°Out: 77.0 mph at 79°Out: 103.0 mph at -11°Out: 67.8 mph at -19°Out: 111.5 mph at 4°Out: 92.3 mph at 24°Single: 84.0 mph at 20°
43% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.6%68.4%+1.3
2+ total bases42.2%40.6%+1.7
Home run11.0%9.8%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Bo Bichette hits
Bo Bichette · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .271 shrunk (raw .337 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 15 pitches seen.271xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .236 on 7 PA) · league .296 · 17 pitches seen.274xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 11 pitches seen.218xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .519 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.370xwOBA .463 shrunk (raw .580 on 8 PA) · league .385 · 26 pitches seen.463xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .286 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 25 pitches seen.322xwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .688 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 18 pitches seen.411xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .090 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 15 pitches seen.285xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .278 on 12 PA) · league .299 · 18 pitches seen.289xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .010 on 5 PA) · league .302 · 37 pitches seen.216xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .442 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 61 pitches seen.390xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .388 on 14 PA) · league .289 · 81 pitches seen.342xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .364 on 15 PA) · league .257 · 54 pitches seen.316
vs LHP · 394 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 21%8%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 23%44%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 17%15%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 16%7%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 25%8%Whiff 22% of 18 swings · league 29%22%Whiff 28% of 29 swings · league 48%28%Whiff 19% of 26 swings · league 34%19%
vs LHP · 394 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 63%53%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 71%71%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 64%82%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 67%69%Swings at 85% of 26 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 76% of 25 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 72% of 18 pitches · league 59%72%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 68%60%Swings at 78% of 18 pitches · league 66%78%Swings at 35% of 37 pitches · league 30%35%Swings at 30% of 61 pitches · league 26%30%Swings at 36% of 81 pitches · league 31%36%Swings at 48% of 54 pitches · league 41%48%
vs LHP · 394 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Bo Bichette against each of DJ Herz's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball54%93.5+13″ / +16″.373.35412.5%19.2%174About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup25%83.5+16″ / +6″.350.32918.5%26.5%111About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider18%86.3-0″ / +3″.354.33420.4%27.8%128About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball3%81.20″ / -2″.343.32325.1%32.7%74About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bo Bichette · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.214.312.714.472.49712.5%12.5%12.1%90.4108.216.7%33.3%58.3%
Last 15 G1227.208.296.500.372.42314.8%11.1%12.7%90.2108.210.0%40.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2449.233.327.512.377.42416.3%12.2%12.8%91.4109.014.3%48.6%57.1%
90 days4799.261.333.489.369.35817.2%10.1%14.3%90.7109.08.3%44.4%51.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 32%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.167.286.167.229.40014.3%14.3%36.4%85.8108.60.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1443.225.279.225.237.31523.3%7.0%20.3%89.1111.50.0%46.7%36.7%
Last 30 G2785.241.294.329.291.32220.0%7.1%20.1%89.0111.83.2%45.2%40.3%
90 days72225.271.324.357.314.31418.2%7.6%18.4%87.4111.83.6%36.5%38.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.200.304.550.398.46813.0%13.0%18.2%89.1108.611.8%41.2%52.9%
Last 15 G1570.219.286.328.289.35720.0%8.6%16.8%89.5111.54.0%44.0%42.0%
Last 30 G30134.238.306.393.322.35918.7%9.0%17.1%89.9111.87.2%46.4%46.4%
90 days75324.268.327.397.331.32817.9%8.3%17.1%88.4111.85.0%38.9%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 239 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 4%
Bo Bichette · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating67Above average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.325 / .333results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.0108.2251.969Home run
Sep 25LHPFastball92.091.312.763Double
Sep 25RHPCurveball82.240.7-52.288Out
Sep 24RHPSinker93.1102.3-10.249Double play
Sep 24RHPSinker93.1100.3-2.298Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.391.127.118Out
Sep 24LHPSinker90.380.3-3.083Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup82.275.69.239Out
Sep 23LHPFastball89.986.5-2.208Error
Sep 23LHPFastball94.897.333.335Out
Sep 23LHPCutter88.891.27.427Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.866.6-37.053Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25526111
Sep 24400000
Sep 23500010
Sep 22511011
Sep 20414101
Sep 19511012
Sep 18511001
Sep 17411001
Sep 16411002
Sep 15633000

Two strikes

DJ Herz WSH · LHPwith two strikes
DJ Herz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball48%50%40.0%37.5%18.4%
Changeup32%44%0.0%14.3%18.3%
Slider18%6%0.0%0.0%22.2%
Bo Bichette bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bo Bichette with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.7%41.4%
Whiff%15.2%22.0%
Contact%84.8%78.0%
Chase%54.1%40.7%
wOBA.258.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes13.7%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.341
K%17.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.3%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%29.6%
Avg EV88.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

95 PA
wOBA.364
xwOBA vs this mix.359against pitches like his
RV/1000.79
Hard-hit%31.6%
K%16.7%
BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
DJ HerzLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 16.3 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.7%56%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.6%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff96
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball48%10393.013.3%
Changeup32%9682.810.0%
Slider18%7987.50.0%
Curveball3%9380.30.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

DJ Herz WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bo Bichette: every projection we've made →