MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 3Brady House
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.389wOBA vs LHP.385xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · NYMSean Manaea
Throws leftBTB Stuff 87Trending Up
5.1projected K22%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Manaea's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +10.8″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .366 vs league .361 (about even).Sinker 30%Fastball: 28% usage, 91.8 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .369 vs league .364 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 16% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .313 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 16%Sweeper: 14% usage, 77.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .330 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 14%Slider: 9% usage, 83.4 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .340 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brady House's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brady House's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 67.3 mph at 48°Out: 73.3 mph at 57°Single: 89.2 mph at 19°Single: 98.6 mph at 12°Out: 89.3 mph at 30°Out: 65.7 mph at 69°Out: 103.7 mph at -37°Single: 108.7 mph at -4°Single: 91.5 mph at 19°Out: 52.1 mph at 18°Double: 111.1 mph at -2°Out: 107.7 mph at -16°Out: 109.9 mph at 0°Double: 99.5 mph at -2°Out: 74.4 mph at -15°Out: 103.2 mph at 34°Out: 105.0 mph at 3°Out: 102.7 mph at -18°Out: 92.7 mph at 51°Out: 85.1 mph at 51°Single: 106.3 mph at 8°Out: 102.9 mph at -10°Out: 74.6 mph at 14°Out: 71.2 mph at -12°Out: 104.9 mph at -4°Double: 100.4 mph at 15°Out: 69.8 mph at 5°Out: 79.9 mph at -18°Out: 108.0 mph at 17°Single: 87.3 mph at 17°Out: 87.7 mph at 0°Out: 71.5 mph at 48°Out: 75.1 mph at 27°Single: 76.8 mph at 21°Out: 90.4 mph at 32°Out: 98.3 mph at 20°Out: 47.7 mph at 0°Out: 95.1 mph at 46°Single: 82.6 mph at 15°Double: 101.6 mph at 0°
45% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.9%64.0%+2.9
2+ total bases41.3%37.4%+4.0
Home run14.4%9.8%+4.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
+4.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brady House hits
Where they meet

.334 xwOBA for Brady House in the spots Sean Manaea throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (+24 points). His best spot against lefties is down-middle, and Sean Manaea puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Sean Manaea · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing3%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 34% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing9%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing17%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing9%
All · 982 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%
Fastball · 442 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters14%27% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters27%13% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Sweeper · 271 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters16%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%
Sinker · 126 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%15% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters15%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%20% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters20%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Cutter · 86 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%37% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Changeup · 57 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Brady House · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .433 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.258xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .439 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 5 pitches seen.325xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .168 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 10 pitches seen.242xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .454 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.357xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .324 on 2 PA) · league .385 · 6 pitches seen.376xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .482 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 16 pitches seen.376xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .761 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 5 pitches seen.343xwOBA .460 shrunk (raw .791 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 12 pitches seen.460xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .436 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 11 pitches seen.339xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .368 on 7 PA) · league .302 · 18 pitches seen.326xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .208 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 33 pitches seen.311xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .438 on 12 PA) · league .289 · 54 pitches seen.363xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .272 on 6 PA) · league .257 · 34 pitches seen.262
vs LHP · 217 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 23%29%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 16%33%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 25%14%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 29%38%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 48%39%Whiff 67% of 15 swings · league 34%67%
vs LHP · 217 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 71%60%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 64%70%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 67%80%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 88% of 16 pitches · league 72%88%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 59%60%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 66%55%Swings at 78% of 18 pitches · league 30%78%Swings at 24% of 33 pitches · league 26%24%Swings at 33% of 54 pitches · league 31%33%Swings at 44% of 34 pitches · league 41%44%
vs LHP · 217 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brady House against each of Sean Manaea's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%92.3+16″ / +11″.366.36121.2%16.2%36About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball28%91.8+13″ / +12″.369.36420.8%15.9%38About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup16%85.0+13″ / +6″.313.30839.0%29.1%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper14%77.3-13″ / +2″.330.32429.7%25.0%10About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider9%83.4-4″ / +3″.340.33433.2%28.2%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brady House · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.800.875.800.713.54012.5%37.5%27.3%97.0108.70.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1222.438.591.500.493.42618.2%27.3%15.8%90.4109.90.0%41.7%58.3%
Last 30 G1730.348.500.391.415.39420.0%23.3%16.4%86.9109.90.0%41.2%52.9%
90 days2858.360.448.540.432.42322.4%13.8%26.1%89.1110.08.1%54.1%51.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 38%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.125.125.250.156.05037.5%0.0%23.1%79.9103.70.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1026.115.115.231.144.21723.1%0.0%23.1%90.5111.110.0%50.0%15.0%
Last 30 G2373.231.288.385.291.30717.8%8.2%18.8%92.6111.17.4%51.9%25.9%
90 days39113.218.283.327.280.30923.9%6.2%21.6%91.7111.17.9%51.3%27.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.385.500.462.434.29525.0%18.8%25.0%87.5108.70.0%33.3%44.4%
Last 15 G1548.238.333.333.304.31320.8%12.5%19.5%90.5111.16.2%46.9%31.2%
Last 30 G30103.261.350.386.327.33218.4%12.6%18.0%91.3111.15.6%49.3%32.4%
90 days49171.265.339.397.331.34723.4%8.8%23.3%90.9111.18.0%52.2%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 113 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 25%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 12%
Brady House · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating86Excellent
Last 100 pitches40trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.328 / .358running 30 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter89.167.348.206Double
Sep 25RHPCutter86.673.357.041Out
Sep 23LHPSinker91.189.219.555Single
Sep 23LHPFastball94.398.612.882Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.889.330.086Out
Sep 21RHPSinker92.865.769.000Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball86.6103.7-37.066Out
Sep 20LHPSlider83.0108.7-4.386Single
Sep 20LHPFastball92.091.519.403Single
Sep 18LHPFastball90.252.118.129Out
Sep 18RHPSinker95.7111.1-2.417Double
Sep 18RHPSinker95.3107.7-16.162Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25412011
Sep 23422001
Sep 21400002
Sep 20322010
Sep 19100010
Sep 18412001
Sep 16100001
Sep 15412011
Sep 13100000
Sep 12500000

Two strikes

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Sean Manaea with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%48%26.9%23.8%18.4%
Sweeper29%33%25.9%19.5%21.2%
Sinker18%8%8.7%9.7%17.8%
Changeup4%7%6.7%7.7%18.3%
Cutter8%5%33.3%26.3%18.3%
Brady House bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brady House with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.6%41.4%
Whiff%27.0%22.0%
Contact%73.0%78.0%
Chase%38.4%40.7%
wOBA.257.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.1%18.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.296
K%24.5%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%11.3%
Barrel%4.3%
Hard-hit%33.3%
Avg EV90.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

58 PA
wOBA.389
xwOBA vs this mix.385against pitches like his
RV/1001.46
Hard-hit%32.0%
K%22.7%
BB%8.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM vs WSH
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.0 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.4%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.9%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.6%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.8%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo86.3
BTB Stuff87
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball41%9091.913.0%
Sweeper29%8476.512.3%
Sinker18%9190.62.0%
Cutter8%8284.911.5%
Changeup4%6784.83.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229935%16%27%.260
Sep 156732%9%32%.305
Sep 86120%10%35%.260

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brady House: every projection we've made →