MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 8Keibert Ruiz
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.322wOBA vs LHP.308xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · NYMSean Manaea
Throws leftBTB Stuff 87Trending Up
5.1projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Sean Manaea's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +10.8″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .346 vs league .361 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 30%Fastball: 28% usage, 91.8 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .349 vs league .364 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 28%Changeup: 16% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .294 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 16%Sweeper: 14% usage, 77.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .310 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 14%Slider: 9% usage, 83.4 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .319 vs league .334 (pitcher's edge).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Keibert Ruiz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Keibert Ruiz's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.5 mph at 50°Out: 93.4 mph at 47°Out: 74.1 mph at 68°Single: 97.6 mph at 15°Out: 83.9 mph at 10°Out: 88.6 mph at 25°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°Out: 82.2 mph at 45°Out: 79.6 mph at 24°Out: 90.6 mph at 63°Out: 100.5 mph at 1°Out: 75.5 mph at 35°Out: 89.4 mph at -17°Out: 90.3 mph at -35°Single: 96.2 mph at 12°Out: 78.9 mph at 35°Out: 77.7 mph at 82°Out: 97.1 mph at 2°Out: 80.7 mph at 50°Single: 100.5 mph at 11°Out: 73.6 mph at -20°Single: 62.4 mph at -45°Out: 55.0 mph at 47°Double: 98.4 mph at 26°Single: 88.8 mph at -5°Home run: 104.6 mph at 29°Out: 45.8 mph at -47°Out: 85.8 mph at -24°Out: 87.6 mph at -1°Out: 65.3 mph at 51°Out: 99.0 mph at 34°Out: 85.9 mph at 57°Single: 103.8 mph at 2°Double: 103.3 mph at 14°Out: 98.2 mph at 32°Out: 81.9 mph at -21°Single: 101.6 mph at 16°Single: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at -8°Out: 85.1 mph at 44°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.5%62.8%+1.7
2+ total bases36.7%34.6%+2.1
Home run8.2%6.4%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Keibert Ruiz hits
Where they meet

.304 xwOBA for Keibert Ruiz in the spots Sean Manaea throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (-6 points). His best spot against lefties is down-right, and Sean Manaea puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Sean Manaea · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing3%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 34% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing9%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing17%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing9%
All · 982 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%
Fastball · 442 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters14%27% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters27%13% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Sweeper · 271 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters16%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%
Sinker · 126 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%15% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters15%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%20% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters20%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Cutter · 86 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%37% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Changeup · 57 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Keibert Ruiz · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .268 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.245xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .438 on 2 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.316xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .018 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 1 pitches seen.236xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .220 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 2 pitches seen.295xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .186 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 7 pitches seen.326xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .272 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 5 pitches seen.335xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .504 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 7 pitches seen.319xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .758 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seen.391xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .062 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.284xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 12 pitches seenxwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .311 on 5 PA) · league .289 · 17 pitches seen.295xwOBA .194 shrunk (raw .068 on 6 PA) · league .257 · 17 pitches seen.194
vs LHP · 98 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 56% of 9 swings · league 48%56%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 34%14%
vs LHP · 98 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 67%100%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 20% of 5 pitches · league 72%20%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 59%43%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 68%25%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 17% of 6 pitches · league 30%17%Swings at 8% of 12 pitches · league 26%8%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 31%53%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 41%41%
vs LHP · 98 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Keibert Ruiz against each of Sean Manaea's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%92.3+16″ / +11″.346.3614.4%16.2%112About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball28%91.8+13″ / +12″.349.3644.5%15.9%150About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup16%85.0+13″ / +6″.294.30819.8%29.1%46About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper14%77.3-13″ / +2″.310.32415.8%25.0%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider9%83.4-4″ / +3″.319.33417.9%28.2%61About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Keibert Ruiz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.667.667.600.5430.0%0.0%16.7%96.698.70.0%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G57.500.571.500.486.4220.0%0.0%9.1%85.398.70.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G912.500.583.500.492.4230.0%8.3%5.6%86.698.710.0%30.0%40.0%
90 days1930.259.333.370.317.28713.3%6.7%15.9%85.4101.68.7%26.1%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 17%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.077.077.077.069.2140.0%0.0%5.9%86.3100.50.0%15.4%30.8%
Last 15 G1544.273.273.477.327.2856.8%0.0%16.9%87.2104.65.0%30.0%35.0%
Last 30 G3094.318.362.466.377.3377.4%6.4%15.1%87.5108.72.5%35.0%36.2%
90 days47143.293.336.429.350.3135.6%6.3%11.4%87.2108.72.4%34.4%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 125 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.188.188.188.169.2760.0%0.0%8.7%88.2100.50.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1551.300.314.480.349.3045.9%0.0%16.0%86.9104.64.3%30.4%34.8%
Last 30 G30106.337.387.469.390.3476.6%6.6%14.1%87.4108.73.3%34.4%36.7%
90 days48173.288.335.419.344.3096.9%6.4%12.1%86.9108.73.4%33.1%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 25%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
Keibert Ruiz · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches42trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .330running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter82.392.550.012Out
Sep 25LHPSinker93.893.447.017Out
Sep 25RHPFastball91.974.168.000Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper82.197.615.758Single
Sep 22RHPFastball94.583.910.461Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.188.625.087Out
Sep 22LHPSinker89.298.711.855Single
Sep 21RHPSinker94.182.245.031Out
Sep 21RHPFastball97.479.624.476Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup84.890.663.003Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper80.1100.51.453Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup87.475.535.135Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 22311000
Sep 21300000
Sep 20100000
Sep 19511000
Sep 16200000
Sep 13411000
Sep 12434000
Sep 9414100
Sep 7300000

Two strikes

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Sean Manaea with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%48%26.9%23.8%18.4%
Sweeper29%33%25.9%19.5%21.2%
Sinker18%8%8.7%9.7%17.8%
Changeup4%7%6.7%7.7%18.3%
Cutter8%5%33.3%26.3%18.3%
Keibert Ruiz bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Keibert Ruiz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%26.5%41.4%
Whiff%13.8%22.0%
Contact%86.2%78.0%
Chase%56.9%40.7%
wOBA.246.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes11.6%18.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.313
K%8.1%
BB%5.0%
Whiff%7.3%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%28.2%
Avg EV86.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

29 PA
wOBA.322
xwOBA vs this mix.308against pitches like his
RV/1000.18
Hard-hit%24.4%
K%17.1%
BB%6.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM vs WSH
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.0 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.4%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.9%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.6%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.8%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo86.3
BTB Stuff87
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball41%9091.913.0%
Sweeper29%8476.512.3%
Sinker18%9190.62.0%
Cutter8%8284.911.5%
Changeup4%6784.83.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229935%16%27%.260
Sep 156732%9%32%.305
Sep 86120%10%35%.260

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Keibert Ruiz: every projection we've made →