MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 2Brandon Lowe
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerHot
.371wOBA vs RHP.340xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · DETRiver Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Stable
2.7projected K25%K%1.6trips vs this hitter
River Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.4 mph, +7.8″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Brandon Lowe: wOBA .380 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Fastball 39%Slider: 21% usage, 89.9 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -1.8″ rise. Brandon Lowe: wOBA .341 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Slider 21%Curveball: 15% usage, 83.0 mph, -11.5″ arm side, -11.6″ rise. Brandon Lowe: wOBA .318 vs league .285 (hitter's edge).Curveball 15%Sinker: 10% usage, 94.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +7.3″ rise. Brandon Lowe: wOBA .394 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Sinker 10%Changeup: 10% usage, 89.8 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Brandon Lowe: wOBA .341 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Lowe's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Lowe's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 99.5 mph at -8°Out: 67.1 mph at -11°Single: 68.7 mph at 13°Single: 96.3 mph at 10°Home run: 108.4 mph at 29°Out: 87.0 mph at -12°Out: 64.0 mph at 1°Out: 102.8 mph at 41°Out: 105.3 mph at 28°Out: 102.9 mph at -5°Out: 81.1 mph at 74°Single: 92.9 mph at -29°Out: 53.1 mph at -68°Out: 101.5 mph at -4°Single: 110.9 mph at 20°Home run: 103.7 mph at 30°Home run: 105.6 mph at 33°Out: 77.5 mph at -36°Out: 101.9 mph at -9°Double: 89.8 mph at 14°Home run: 107.4 mph at 32°Single: 98.6 mph at 5°Out: 88.3 mph at 64°Out: 94.1 mph at 65°Home run: 100.6 mph at 28°Single: 102.8 mph at 9°Single: 84.0 mph at 10°Out: 79.0 mph at -34°Out: 99.1 mph at 51°Out: 87.2 mph at 79°Out: 76.8 mph at 53°Out: 73.0 mph at -23°Single: 107.1 mph at 3°Single: 69.3 mph at -53°Out: 91.6 mph at 19°Single: 106.2 mph at 14°Out: 79.7 mph at 47°Single: 72.5 mph at 33°Single: 104.8 mph at 18°Single: 88.3 mph at 14°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.3%62.4%-0.1
2+ total bases39.0%38.8%+0.1
Home run16.5%16.0%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brandon Lowe hits
Brandon Lowe · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .132 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.227xwOBA .271 shrunk (raw .186 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 35 pitches seen.271xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .050 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.233xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .377 on 22 PA) · league .342 · 47 pitches seen.365xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .443 on 26 PA) · league .386 · 49 pitches seen.425xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .477 on 11 PA) · league .321 · 38 pitches seen.396xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .301 on 16 PA) · league .308 · 44 pitches seen.304xwOBA .360 shrunk (raw .365 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 44 pitches seen.360xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .520 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 42 pitches seen.396xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .330 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 134 pitches seen.350xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .142 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.230xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .316 on 27 PA) · league .263 · 172 pitches seen.300xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .294 on 31 PA) · league .274 · 131 pitches seen.288
vs RHP · 804 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 12 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 41% of 29 swings · league 20%41%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 14% of 35 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 16% of 43 swings · league 9%16%Whiff 6% of 32 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 19% of 32 swings · league 14%19%Whiff 23% of 39 swings · league 13%23%Whiff 24% of 33 swings · league 17%24%Whiff 53% of 19 swings · league 28%53%Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 24%40%Whiff 45% of 64 swings · league 32%45%Whiff 51% of 55 swings · league 49%51%
vs RHP · 804 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 62%43%Swings at 83% of 35 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 75% of 47 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 88% of 49 pitches · league 76%88%Swings at 84% of 38 pitches · league 70%84%Swings at 73% of 44 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 89% of 44 pitches · league 68%89%Swings at 79% of 42 pitches · league 60%79%Swings at 14% of 134 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 34%56%Swings at 37% of 172 pitches · league 40%37%Swings at 42% of 131 pitches · league 32%42%
vs RHP · 804 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Lowe against each of River Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.4+8″ / +16″.380.34727.0%18.5%515Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Slider21%89.9-5″ / -2″.341.30939.0%32.7%262Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Curveball15%83.0-12″ / -12″.318.28536.2%30.8%179Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Sinker10%94.6+15″ / +7″.394.36119.8%13.4%431Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Changeup10%89.8+15″ / +3″.341.30931.9%26.5%405Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Lowe · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.100.250.100.192.22525.0%16.7%28.6%81.9102.90.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 15 G1540.303.425.606.439.39725.0%17.5%34.1%90.1107.413.0%39.1%34.8%
Last 30 G2980.318.438.576.438.36323.8%17.5%31.5%90.4107.46.4%38.3%36.2%
90 days64199.286.367.491.375.34528.1%11.6%31.4%92.5111.010.1%46.2%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 119 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.333.400.667.450.56330.0%10.0%38.1%92.6108.433.3%66.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1525.304.360.565.396.40832.0%4.0%37.8%91.0110.926.7%60.0%33.3%
Last 30 G2546.262.326.524.383.32839.1%6.5%37.4%89.5110.925.0%50.0%29.2%
90 days55113.257.301.410.318.25141.6%5.3%39.7%88.7110.913.6%42.4%30.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 14%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.211.318.368.309.37927.3%13.6%32.7%86.9108.415.4%46.2%30.8%
Last 15 G1565.304.400.589.422.40127.7%12.3%35.3%90.5110.918.4%47.4%34.2%
Last 30 G30126.296.397.556.418.35029.4%13.5%33.6%90.1110.912.7%42.3%33.8%
90 days72312.275.343.461.354.31133.0%9.3%34.3%91.2111.011.2%44.9%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
Brandon Lowe · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating59Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .326running 33 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run5/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker92.799.5-8.229Double play
Sep 25RHPSlider87.167.1-11.058Out
Sep 24RHPFastball96.468.713.295Single
Sep 23LHPCurveball78.896.310.648Single
Sep 23LHPFastball93.8108.4292.000Home run
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.687.0-12.140Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.464.01.075Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.3102.841.408Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.7105.3281.789Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.8102.9-5.331Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup82.081.174.000Out
Sep 20LHPSinker92.292.9-29.059Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500012
Sep 24411012
Sep 23425101
Sep 22400000
Sep 20511011
Sep 19425101
Sep 18514102
Sep 17412011
Sep 16425111
Sep 15514102

Two strikes

River Ryan DET · RHPwith two strikes
River Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%40%66.7%50.0%18.4%
Curveball14%30%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Fastball33%20%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Sinker12%10%100.0%100.0%17.7%
Brandon Lowe bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Lowe with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.7%41.3%
Whiff%26.3%21.6%
Contact%73.7%78.4%
Chase%40.7%39.4%
wOBA.269.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.352
K%31.5%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%16.4%
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%26.5%
Avg EV91.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

195 PA
wOBA.371
xwOBA vs this mix.340against pitches like his
RV/1000.78
Hard-hit%27.8%
K%27.8%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
River RyanRHP · DET vs PIT
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.7 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.9%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 7.8%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.3%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo91.8
BTB Stuff110
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball33%12696.50.0%
Changeup19%9389.837.5%
Curveball14%10182.316.7%
Cutter12%11793.00.0%
Sinker12%9694.220.0%
Slider12%10789.620.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

River Ryan DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Lowe: every projection we've made →