MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 9Jake Mangum
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedHot
.309wOBA vs RHP.287xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · DETRiver Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Stable
2.7projected K25%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
River Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.4 mph, +7.8″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .343 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 21% usage, 89.9 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -1.8″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .305 vs league .309 (about even).Slider 21%Curveball: 15% usage, 83.0 mph, -11.5″ arm side, -11.6″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .282 vs league .285 (about even).Curveball 15%Sinker: 10% usage, 94.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +7.3″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .357 vs league .361 (about even).Sinker 10%Changeup: 10% usage, 89.8 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .305 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Mangum's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake Mangum's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 102.5 mph at 4°Out: 103.0 mph at -27°Out: 31.8 mph at 75°Out: 82.7 mph at 78°Out: 85.5 mph at -32°Out: 84.6 mph at 25°Out: 91.2 mph at -51°Home run: 102.2 mph at 32°Out: 80.2 mph at 41°Out: 102.1 mph at 17°Out: 89.8 mph at -18°Out: 100.2 mph at 2°Single: 98.6 mph at 0°Out: 96.4 mph at 0°Out: 91.7 mph at -18°Out: 100.1 mph at 12°Out: 75.8 mph at -11°Single: 106.3 mph at 14°Out: 89.0 mph at -50°Double: 103.7 mph at 23°Out: 79.9 mph at 36°Out: 76.3 mph at -22°Out: 81.4 mph at 27°Out: 95.6 mph at 16°Out: 66.6 mph at -17°Out: 101.3 mph at 35°Out: 82.2 mph at 63°Out: 84.1 mph at 20°Out: 102.2 mph at -30°Out: 72.1 mph at 9°Out: 90.7 mph at -17°Double: 87.4 mph at 16°Out: 87.6 mph at 34°Single: 71.5 mph at 31°Out: 83.7 mph at -11°Out: 93.0 mph at 27°Out: 83.2 mph at 36°Out: 83.9 mph at 6°Double: 93.4 mph at 7°Out: 58.1 mph at -69°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%55.6%+0.1
2+ total bases27.1%27.3%-0.2
Home run4.7%5.1%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jake Mangum hits
Jake Mangum · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .151 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.238xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .385 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 35 pitches seen.333xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .431 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 21 pitches seen.330xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .409 on 9 PA) · league .342 · 37 pitches seen.371xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .188 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 46 pitches seen.265xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .353 on 8 PA) · league .321 · 22 pitches seen.334xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .169 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 35 pitches seen.236xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .205 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 42 pitches seen.268xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .310 on 22 PA) · league .292 · 44 pitches seen.304xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .295 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 101 pitches seen.333xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .404 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 45 pitches seen.333xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .201 on 18 PA) · league .263 · 88 pitches seen.226xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .343 on 38 PA) · league .274 · 137 pitches seen.326
vs RHP · 683 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 22%39%Whiff 33% of 27 swings · league 20%33%Whiff 0% of 16 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 7% of 28 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 9% of 34 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 11%16%Whiff 27% of 22 swings · league 14%27%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 6% of 35 swings · league 17%6%Whiff 40% of 25 swings · league 28%40%Whiff 19% of 27 swings · league 24%19%Whiff 29% of 42 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 21% of 66 swings · league 49%21%
vs RHP · 683 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 60% of 30 pitches · league 62%60%Swings at 77% of 35 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 66%76%Swings at 76% of 37 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 74% of 46 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 70%86%Swings at 63% of 35 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 67% of 42 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 80% of 44 pitches · league 60%80%Swings at 25% of 101 pitches · league 24%25%Swings at 60% of 45 pitches · league 34%60%Swings at 48% of 88 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 48% of 137 pitches · league 32%48%
vs RHP · 683 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Mangum against each of River Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.4+8″ / +16″.343.34719.5%18.5%145About league average vs these
Slider21%89.9-5″ / -2″.305.30920.2%32.7%82About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball15%83.0-12″ / -12″.282.28518.3%30.8%50About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker10%94.6+15″ / +7″.357.36113.6%13.4%126About league average vs these
Changeup10%89.8+15″ / +3″.305.30920.8%26.5%91About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Mangum · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.100.145.20536.4%9.1%16.7%94.3103.00.0%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1538.206.289.265.265.30415.8%7.9%15.5%88.0103.00.0%29.6%22.2%
Last 30 G2769.206.275.254.253.28420.3%5.8%17.9%85.2103.00.0%27.7%23.4%
90 days63189.249.312.353.308.28920.6%5.8%19.9%85.3104.91.5%30.5%31.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 20%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.167.167.667.333.20233.3%0.0%30.8%74.9102.225.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1218.176.176.412.297.40716.7%0.0%22.6%81.5106.313.3%33.3%46.7%
Last 30 G1837.182.250.303.274.33124.3%5.4%20.8%82.9106.312.0%32.0%40.0%
90 days4187.263.337.395.335.32220.7%4.6%18.5%85.1107.16.7%28.3%35.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.125.176.312.212.20435.3%5.9%21.6%86.6103.010.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1556.196.255.314.275.33716.1%5.4%17.4%85.7106.34.8%31.0%31.0%
Last 30 G30106.198.267.271.260.30021.7%5.7%18.8%84.4106.34.2%29.2%29.2%
90 days67276.253.320.365.316.29920.7%5.4%19.5%85.2107.13.1%29.8%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 191 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 6%
Jake Mangum · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches21trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .302results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider88.1102.54.554Single
Sep 25RHPCutter89.3103.0-27.160Out
Sep 24LHPFastball89.831.875.037Out
Sep 24RHPSlider84.882.778.010Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball78.685.5-32.048Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup79.484.625.179Out
Sep 20RHPFastball98.291.2-51.200Out
Sep 19LHPSlider85.6102.2321.083Home run
Sep 19LHPCutter89.180.241.041Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup84.8102.117.459Out
Sep 16RHPSweeper79.389.8-18.131Out
Sep 16RHPFastball93.0100.22.432Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411002
Sep 24300001
Sep 23300002
Sep 20400011
Sep 19314100
Sep 16411001
Sep 15400000
Sep 13423010
Sep 12400001
Sep 11411000

Two strikes

River Ryan DET · RHPwith two strikes
River Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%40%66.7%50.0%18.4%
Curveball14%30%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Fastball33%20%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Sinker12%10%100.0%100.0%17.7%
Jake Mangum bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Mangum with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.2%41.3%
Whiff%15.6%21.6%
Contact%84.4%78.4%
Chase%52.6%39.4%
wOBA.241.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.319
K%19.9%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%21.8%
Avg EV85.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

184 PA
wOBA.309
xwOBA vs this mix.287against pitches like his
RV/100-0.28
Hard-hit%22.1%
K%20.4%
BB%5.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
River RyanRHP · DET vs PIT
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.7 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.9%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 7.8%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.3%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo91.8
BTB Stuff110
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball33%12696.50.0%
Changeup19%9389.837.5%
Curveball14%10182.316.7%
Cutter12%11793.00.0%
Sinker12%9694.220.0%
Slider12%10789.620.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

River Ryan DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Mangum: every projection we've made →