MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 7Rafael Flores Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.366wOBA vs RHP.364xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · DETRiver Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Stable
2.7projected K25%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
River Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.4 mph, +7.8″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Rafael Flores Jr.: wOBA .347 vs league .336 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 21% usage, 89.9 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -1.8″ rise. Rafael Flores Jr.: wOBA .294 vs league .282 (about even).Slider 21%Curveball: 15% usage, 83.0 mph, -11.5″ arm side, -11.6″ rise. Rafael Flores Jr.: wOBA .294 vs league .282 (about even).Curveball 15%Sinker: 10% usage, 94.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +7.3″ rise. Rafael Flores Jr.: wOBA .357 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 10%Changeup: 10% usage, 89.8 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Rafael Flores Jr.: wOBA .338 vs league .327 (about even).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Rafael Flores Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.2%58.1%-0.9
2+ total bases35.5%36.4%-0.8
Home run14.7%15.3%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Rafael Flores Jr. against each of River Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.4+8″ / +16″.347.33625.9%20.5%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider21%89.9-5″ / -2″.294.28238.7%34.7%16About league average vs these
Curveball15%83.0-12″ / -12″.294.28234.8%30.9%7Little history vs this shape
Sinker10%94.6+15″ / +7″.357.34515.0%11.6%23About league average vs these
Changeup10%89.8+15″ / +3″.338.32731.8%25.9%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.366 / .366results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

River Ryan DET · RHPwith two strikes
River Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%40%66.7%50.0%18.4%
Curveball14%30%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Fastball33%20%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Sinker12%10%100.0%100.0%17.7%
Rafael Flores Jr. bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Rafael Flores Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.7%43.3%
Whiff%23.3%23.5%
Contact%76.7%76.5%
Chase%38.8%39.4%
wOBA.237.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.337
K%28.4%
BB%8.7%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%28.8%
Avg EV90.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

78 PA
wOBA.366
xwOBA vs this mix.364against pitches like his
RV/1000.60
Hard-hit%35.1%
K%28.6%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
River RyanRHP · DET vs PIT
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.7 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.9%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 7.8%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.3%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo91.8
BTB Stuff110
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball33%12696.50.0%
Changeup19%9389.837.5%
Curveball14%10182.316.7%
Cutter12%11793.00.0%
Sinker12%9694.220.0%
Slider12%10789.620.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

River Ryan DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Rafael Flores Jr.: every projection we've made →