MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 5Riley Greene
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerNormal
.390wOBA vs RHP.385xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · PITJared Jones
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
6.3projected K32%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jared Jones's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 48% usage, 97.8 mph, +8.8″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Riley Greene: wOBA .364 vs league .336 (hitter's edge).Fastball 48%Slider: 35% usage, 89.3 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +2.0″ rise. Riley Greene: wOBA .351 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Slider 35%Curveball: 9% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, -10.2″ rise. Riley Greene: wOBA .313 vs league .285 (hitter's edge).Curveball 9%Changeup: 9% usage, 91.8 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Riley Greene: wOBA .346 vs league .320 (hitter's edge).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Riley Greene's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Riley Greene's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.6 mph at 40°Single: 73.3 mph at 46°Out: 95.2 mph at 18°Out: 82.6 mph at 51°Out: 93.0 mph at 26°Out: 75.8 mph at -16°Out: 65.6 mph at 80°Out: 49.7 mph at -18°Out: 86.1 mph at 54°Double: 109.2 mph at 20°Out: 61.2 mph at 8°Single: 80.5 mph at 27°Single: 89.8 mph at 6°Out: 71.1 mph at 10°Out: 80.5 mph at 6°Home run: 108.9 mph at 33°Single: 79.3 mph at 21°Out: 87.5 mph at 6°Out: 89.6 mph at 60°Out: 73.0 mph at 66°Single: 105.8 mph at 6°Out: 55.8 mph at 3°Single: 101.5 mph at 28°Out: 102.8 mph at 68°Single: 102.4 mph at 11°Out: 69.1 mph at -32°Out: 98.1 mph at 16°Single: 92.4 mph at 11°Out: 61.6 mph at -6°Single: 82.6 mph at 23°Home run: 101.7 mph at 27°Single: 94.9 mph at 17°Out: 93.1 mph at 46°Single: 105.3 mph at -3°Out: 100.4 mph at 49°Triple: 111.4 mph at 28°Double: 93.6 mph at 12°Single: 111.5 mph at 9°Out: 83.3 mph at 36°Out: 83.2 mph at 46°
33% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.8%61.6%-2.8
2+ total bases40.3%42.4%-2.1
Home run20.2%21.2%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Riley Greene hits
Where they meet

.347 xwOBA for Riley Greene in the spots Jared Jones throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .315 (+32 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Jared Jones puts 8% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jared Jones · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing5%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing19%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing10%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 61% per swing20%
All · 706 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%27% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters27%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 359 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%33% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Slider · 210 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34%21% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Changeup · 85 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%39% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters39%
Curveball · 52 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Riley Greene · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .428 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.336xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .490 on 14 PA) · league .307 · 32 pitches seen.406xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .246 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 17 pitches seen.257xwOBA .463 shrunk (raw .574 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 45 pitches seen.463xwOBA .569 shrunk (raw .844 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 38 pitches seen.569xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .382 on 14 PA) · league .321 · 26 pitches seen.354xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .147 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 31 pitches seen.254xwOBA .427 shrunk (raw .497 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 32 pitches seen.427xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .409 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 27 pitches seen.342xwOBA .445 shrunk (raw .499 on 15 PA) · league .377 · 123 pitches seen.445xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .457 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 47 pitches seen.341xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .173 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 116 pitches seen.212xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .178 on 26 PA) · league .274 · 112 pitches seen.208
vs RHP · 670 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 22%27%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 20% of 30 swings · league 9%20%Whiff 0% of 22 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 33% of 18 swings · league 14%33%Whiff 23% of 30 swings · league 13%23%Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 17%27%Whiff 50% of 18 swings · league 28%50%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 51% of 37 swings · league 32%51%Whiff 69% of 42 swings · league 49%69%
vs RHP · 670 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 24 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 73% of 45 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 79% of 38 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 85% of 26 pitches · league 70%85%Swings at 58% of 31 pitches · league 65%58%Swings at 94% of 32 pitches · league 68%94%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 60%56%Swings at 15% of 123 pitches · league 24%15%Swings at 17% of 47 pitches · league 34%17%Swings at 32% of 116 pitches · league 40%32%Swings at 38% of 112 pitches · league 32%38%
vs RHP · 670 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Riley Greene against each of Jared Jones's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball48%97.8+9″ / +17″.364.33622.3%20.6%436About league average vs these
Slider35%89.3-3″ / +2″.351.32332.8%29.5%214About league average vs these
Curveball9%83.6-6″ / -10″.313.28536.5%32.7%141About league average vs these
Changeup9%91.8+12″ / +5″.346.32030.5%24.3%341About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Riley Greene · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.400.538.500.465.35815.4%23.1%18.2%84.6109.212.5%12.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1547.341.426.463.396.34223.4%12.8%24.7%87.8111.510.0%33.3%43.3%
Last 30 G3094.265.351.410.338.31830.9%9.6%31.1%84.7111.511.1%29.6%48.1%
90 days53160.281.375.541.397.39927.5%12.5%30.8%87.3111.519.1%41.5%45.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 94 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 25%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.000.333.000.233.3390.0%22.2%23.1%73.495.20.0%16.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1318.214.389.571.406.47111.1%16.7%25.8%83.1111.416.7%33.3%41.7%
Last 30 G2336.367.472.867.543.54611.1%13.9%20.0%87.6111.419.2%34.6%50.0%
90 days4676.250.329.529.377.40821.1%9.2%22.3%87.2111.413.5%36.5%44.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 27%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.250.455.312.370.3509.1%22.7%20.0%79.8109.27.1%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1565.309.415.491.398.37820.0%13.8%25.0%86.5111.511.9%33.3%42.9%
Last 30 G30130.292.385.531.395.38125.4%10.8%28.2%85.6111.513.8%31.2%48.8%
90 days55236.271.360.537.391.40225.4%11.4%27.9%87.3111.517.1%39.7%45.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 25%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 8%
Riley Greene · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches99steady
wOBA / xwOBA.395 / .414running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup89.584.640.029Out
Sep 25RHPCutter92.873.346.203Single
Sep 25LHPSlider83.195.218.452Out
Sep 23RHPSlider91.982.651.038Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup77.593.026.224Out
Sep 23LHPSinker89.275.8-16.047Out
Sep 21LHPFastball92.265.680.000Out
Sep 21LHPChangeup82.449.7-18.088Out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.286.154.018Out
Sep 20RHPFastball92.4109.2201.347Double
Sep 20LHPFastball92.461.28.117Out
Sep 19RHPFastball93.180.527.227Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511020
Sep 23500020
Sep 21400011
Sep 20412001
Sep 19422000
Sep 18514112
Sep 17411002
Sep 16411000
Sep 15411011
Sep 14522001

Two strikes

Jared Jones PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Jared Jones with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%46%20.6%21.8%18.3%
Slider35%39%37.6%31.9%21.4%
Changeup8%8%35.7%17.2%18.4%
Curveball7%6%41.7%30.4%20.7%
Riley Greene bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Riley Greene with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.7%41.3%
Whiff%27.2%21.6%
Contact%72.8%78.4%
Chase%37.9%39.4%
wOBA.250.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes30.1%24.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.373
K%25.5%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%24.9%
Avg EV87.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

157 PA
wOBA.390
xwOBA vs this mix.385against pitches like his
RV/1001.43
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%26.7%
BB%11.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jared JonesRHP · PIT vs DET
6.3projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 12.9%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.1%12%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 11.2%11%89+ strikeouts: 18.6%19%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%14.9%
Velo93.8
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%10698.19.9%
Slider35%11489.721.9%
Changeup8%9192.415.8%
Curveball7%9785.715.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228641%20%18%.057
Sep 169139%15%22%.320
Sep 109033%20%17%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jared Jones PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Riley Greene: every projection we've made →