MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 8Spencer Horwitz
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.224wOBA vs RHP.252xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · DETRiver Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Stable
2.7projected K25%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
River Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.4 mph, +7.8″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Spencer Horwitz: wOBA .366 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Fastball 39%Slider: 21% usage, 89.9 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -1.8″ rise. Spencer Horwitz: wOBA .328 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Slider 21%Curveball: 15% usage, 83.0 mph, -11.5″ arm side, -11.6″ rise. Spencer Horwitz: wOBA .305 vs league .285 (hitter's edge).Curveball 15%Sinker: 10% usage, 94.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +7.3″ rise. Spencer Horwitz: wOBA .380 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Sinker 10%Changeup: 10% usage, 89.8 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Spencer Horwitz: wOBA .329 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Spencer Horwitz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Spencer Horwitz's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 95.7 mph at 22°Out: 83.3 mph at 62°Out: 73.4 mph at -31°Out: 81.1 mph at 52°Out: 91.8 mph at 28°Out: 91.7 mph at 5°Double: 94.1 mph at 12°Single: 67.8 mph at 23°Out: 70.5 mph at 17°Out: 91.5 mph at 8°Single: 91.4 mph at 10°Single: 78.1 mph at 21°Out: 85.4 mph at 52°Out: 86.8 mph at 27°Single: 99.1 mph at 11°Out: 82.5 mph at -23°Out: 89.9 mph at -5°Single: 101.2 mph at 10°Out: 51.4 mph at 8°Out: 73.6 mph at 40°Out: 74.6 mph at 32°Single: 52.7 mph at -71°Out: 98.1 mph at -28°Out: 66.3 mph at -20°Single: 104.4 mph at 7°Out: 93.9 mph at 30°Single: 75.6 mph at 20°Out: 78.4 mph at -7°Out: 95.4 mph at -6°Out: 98.4 mph at 39°Out: 72.1 mph at 9°Out: 100.6 mph at 19°Out: 84.9 mph at 36°Out: 77.5 mph at 45°Out: 92.5 mph at 25°Single: 99.2 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at 44°Single: 89.8 mph at -3°Out: 74.8 mph at -22°Out: 97.4 mph at -9°
25% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.2%54.3%-0.1
2+ total bases27.5%27.4%+0.1
Home run5.7%5.4%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Spencer Horwitz hits
Spencer Horwitz · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .248 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 25 pitches seen.264xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .301 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 19 pitches seen.305xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .031 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 8 pitches seen.217xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .293 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 32 pitches seen.317xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .213 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 36 pitches seen.287xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .175 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 21 pitches seen.258xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .250 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 29 pitches seen.280xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .185 on 11 PA) · league .351 · 29 pitches seen.272xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 16 pitches seen.270xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .374 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 71 pitches seen.376xwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .000 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.219xwOBA .211 shrunk (raw .167 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 66 pitches seen.211xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .492 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 70 pitches seen.373
vs RHP · 442 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 22%6%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 28 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 11%27%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 14%12%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 13%12%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 32%21%Whiff 67% of 12 swings · league 49%67%
vs RHP · 442 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 25 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 74% of 19 pitches · league 72%74%Swings at 38% of 8 pitches · league 66%38%Swings at 75% of 32 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 76%78%Swings at 52% of 21 pitches · league 70%52%Swings at 59% of 29 pitches · league 65%59%Swings at 59% of 29 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 31% of 16 pitches · league 60%31%Swings at 20% of 71 pitches · league 24%20%Swings at 20% of 20 pitches · league 34%20%Swings at 36% of 66 pitches · league 40%36%Swings at 17% of 70 pitches · league 32%17%
vs RHP · 442 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Spencer Horwitz against each of River Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.4+8″ / +16″.366.34712.7%18.5%316About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider21%89.9-5″ / -2″.328.30923.4%32.7%131About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball15%83.0-12″ / -12″.305.28521.6%30.8%60About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker10%94.6+15″ / +7″.380.3619.8%13.4%201About league average vs these
Changeup10%89.8+15″ / +3″.329.30918.1%26.5%143About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Spencer Horwitz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.364.385.545.385.37623.1%7.7%14.8%85.395.70.0%11.1%77.8%
Last 15 G1539.206.282.265.251.28520.5%10.3%20.5%85.7104.40.0%25.9%55.6%
Last 30 G3085.190.235.215.208.24121.2%5.9%17.3%86.1104.40.0%25.8%40.3%
90 days38111.178.243.208.212.24320.7%7.2%16.4%86.6104.40.0%24.1%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 22%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.250.400.250.320.32120.0%20.0%16.7%80.883.30.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1012.400.500.400.417.3658.3%16.7%17.6%81.1101.20.0%22.2%33.3%
Last 30 G2033.250.364.250.297.31721.2%12.1%22.9%85.6104.30.0%23.8%42.9%
90 days2337.219.324.219.265.29121.6%10.8%24.6%84.8104.30.0%20.8%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.333.389.467.367.36122.2%11.1%15.2%84.295.70.0%8.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1551.250.333.295.290.30417.6%11.8%20.0%84.6104.40.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 30 G30118.206.271.224.233.26221.2%7.6%18.7%86.0104.40.0%25.3%41.0%
90 days38148.188.264.211.225.25520.9%8.1%18.3%86.2104.40.0%23.3%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 103 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
Spencer Horwitz · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches38trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.228 / .267running 39 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.795.722.247Double
Sep 24LHPFastball90.083.362.008Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.273.4-31.036Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup80.781.152.041Out
Sep 24RHPFastball98.091.828.096Sac fly
Sep 22RHPFastball95.691.75.468Out
Sep 22RHPSlider89.494.112.860Double
Sep 20RHPFastball95.167.823.833Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup81.270.517.602Out
Sep 18RHPFastball92.991.58.523Out
Sep 18RHPFastball99.191.410.525Single
Sep 18LHPFastball94.478.121.860Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25312002
Sep 24400000
Sep 22312010
Sep 20411002
Sep 18422010
Sep 16100001
Sep 15200000
Sep 12411011
Sep 10311000
Sep 9411001

Two strikes

River Ryan DET · RHPwith two strikes
River Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%40%66.7%50.0%18.4%
Curveball14%30%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Fastball33%20%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Sinker12%10%100.0%100.0%17.7%
Spencer Horwitz bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Spencer Horwitz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.2%41.3%
Whiff%15.7%21.6%
Contact%84.3%78.4%
Chase%37.0%39.4%
wOBA.276.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.291
K%20.2%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%8.5%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%19.8%
Avg EV86.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

111 PA
wOBA.224
xwOBA vs this mix.252against pitches like his
RV/100-1.98
Hard-hit%17.9%
K%21.0%
BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
River RyanRHP · DET vs PIT
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.7 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.9%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 7.8%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.3%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo91.8
BTB Stuff110
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball33%12696.50.0%
Changeup19%9389.837.5%
Curveball14%10182.316.7%
Cutter12%11793.00.0%
Sinker12%9694.220.0%
Slider12%10789.620.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

River Ryan DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Spencer Horwitz: every projection we've made →