MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 8Spencer Torkelson
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.373wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · PITJared Jones
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
6.3projected K32%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jared Jones's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 48% usage, 97.8 mph, +8.8″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .331 vs league .329 (about even).Fastball 48%Slider: 35% usage, 89.3 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +2.0″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .292 vs league .290 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 9% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, -10.2″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .281 vs league .280 (about even).Curveball 9%Changeup: 9% usage, 91.8 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .336 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Spencer Torkelson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Spencer Torkelson's last 40 balls in playHit (20)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Triple: 101.5 mph at 13°Home run: 105.2 mph at 35°Double: 84.2 mph at 52°Home run: 97.1 mph at 36°Out: 87.2 mph at -4°Double: 92.6 mph at 23°Out: 101.7 mph at 52°Single: 75.4 mph at 41°Out: 73.5 mph at 8°Single: 103.2 mph at 8°Out: 93.3 mph at 12°Single: 106.0 mph at 19°Single: 97.2 mph at 16°Double: 103.9 mph at 22°Home run: 102.7 mph at 38°Double: 97.3 mph at 2°Single: 52.7 mph at -67°Home run: 102.9 mph at 38°Out: 80.9 mph at 46°Out: 95.4 mph at 36°Single: 103.8 mph at 13°Out: 93.1 mph at 73°Out: 94.9 mph at 50°Out: 100.9 mph at 37°Single: 71.5 mph at 39°Out: 95.3 mph at -11°Out: 68.5 mph at 8°Out: 94.7 mph at 55°Out: 78.6 mph at 45°Out: 71.9 mph at -14°Out: 86.2 mph at -8°Single: 103.8 mph at 8°Single: 105.1 mph at 9°Out: 91.6 mph at 9°Home run: 101.9 mph at 35°Out: 94.5 mph at -12°Home run: 106.5 mph at 26°Out: 95.7 mph at 22°Out: 88.0 mph at 31°Out: 96.9 mph at 22°
53% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.5%51.4%-1.9
2+ total bases29.1%30.3%-1.2
Home run13.4%13.6%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Spencer Torkelson hits
Where they meet

.306 xwOBA for Spencer Torkelson in the spots Jared Jones throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (+2 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Jared Jones puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jared Jones · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing10%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing9%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing10%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 66% per swing28%
All · 446 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%
Fastball · 216 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters12%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%40% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Slider · 188 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%47% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters47%
Curveball · 32 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Spencer Torkelson · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .152 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.222xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .238 on 14 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.270xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .482 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 28 pitches seen.318xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .203 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.265xwOBA .521 shrunk (raw .577 on 29 PA) · league .386 · 63 pitches seen.521xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .266 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 52 pitches seen.290xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .375 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.325xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .424 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 46 pitches seen.389xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .266 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 56 pitches seen.278xwOBA .472 shrunk (raw .559 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 78 pitches seen.472xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .222 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 57 pitches seen.250xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .291 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 61 pitches seen.274xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .242 on 37 PA) · league .274 · 212 pitches seen.250
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 18 swings · league 22%17%Whiff 29% of 24 swings · league 20%29%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 19%8%Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 10%16%Whiff 4% of 47 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 28% of 36 swings · league 11%28%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 14%21%Whiff 21% of 28 swings · league 13%21%Whiff 41% of 29 swings · league 17%41%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 24%42%Whiff 57% of 21 swings · league 32%57%Whiff 83% of 53 swings · league 49%83%
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 28 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 77% of 31 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 66%43%Swings at 76% of 33 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 75% of 63 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 69% of 52 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 65%82%Swings at 61% of 46 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 52% of 56 pitches · league 60%52%Swings at 12% of 78 pitches · league 24%12%Swings at 21% of 57 pitches · league 34%21%Swings at 34% of 61 pitches · league 40%34%Swings at 25% of 212 pitches · league 32%25%
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Spencer Torkelson against each of Jared Jones's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball48%97.8+9″ / +17″.331.32920.3%21.0%445About league average vs these
Slider35%89.3-3″ / +2″.292.29036.7%33.4%340About league average vs these
Curveball9%83.6-6″ / -10″.281.28035.6%33.0%150About league average vs these
Changeup9%91.8+12″ / +5″.336.33625.7%22.3%273About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Spencer Torkelson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.455.6001.364.773.38533.3%13.3%44.0%94.6105.216.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1441.433.5851.033.649.41724.4%22.0%36.4%92.2105.210.0%55.0%35.0%
Last 30 G2868.340.485.830.541.36133.8%16.2%41.6%92.0106.513.3%56.7%36.7%
90 days71186.259.366.544.392.33430.1%12.4%34.1%90.0106.514.6%45.6%33.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 103 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.400.000.280.27960.0%40.0%62.5%–––––
Last 15 G1015.250.400.250.320.30546.7%20.0%41.7%94.9106.020.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2138.171.237.200.207.21436.8%7.9%27.3%89.6106.04.8%38.1%47.6%
90 days57101.258.337.360.313.27730.7%10.9%26.6%87.7107.55.1%32.2%44.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 17%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.357.5501.071.650.35940.0%20.0%48.5%94.6105.216.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1556.381.536.810.561.38730.4%21.4%37.8%92.7106.012.0%56.0%36.0%
Last 30 G30106.273.396.580.421.30934.9%13.2%36.3%91.0106.59.8%49.0%41.2%
90 days75287.259.355.478.364.31430.3%11.8%31.5%89.2107.511.1%40.7%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 19%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 15%
Spencer Torkelson · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating49Average
Last 100 pitches65trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.355 / .315running 40 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.5101.513.892Triple
Sep 25RHPFastball97.7105.2351.362Home run
Sep 25RHPFastball97.584.252.020Double
Sep 21RHPFastball98.697.136.261Home run
Sep 21RHPSlider86.287.2-4.172Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball95.392.623.220Double
Sep 19RHPSlider88.3101.752.028Out
Sep 18RHPSinker96.875.441.203Single
Sep 18RHPSinker95.973.58.236Out
Sep 18LHPFastball91.4103.28.666Single
Sep 17RHPSweeper82.593.312.836Out
Sep 17LHPFastball89.5106.019.835Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25439101
Sep 23400004
Sep 22400030
Sep 21414102
Sep 20412011
Sep 19200001
Sep 18522011
Sep 17411011
Sep 16411021
Sep 15526112

Two strikes

Jared Jones PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Jared Jones with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%46%20.6%21.8%18.3%
Slider35%39%37.6%31.9%21.4%
Changeup8%8%35.7%17.2%18.4%
Curveball7%6%41.7%30.4%20.7%
Spencer Torkelson bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Spencer Torkelson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.0%43.3%
Whiff%26.9%23.5%
Contact%73.1%76.5%
Chase%35.3%39.4%
wOBA.229.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.3%24.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.351
K%29.7%
BB%11.6%
Whiff%12.9%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%23.1%
Avg EV89.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

185 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/1000.96
Hard-hit%24.7%
K%29.6%
BB%11.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jared JonesRHP · PIT vs DET
6.3projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 12.9%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.1%12%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 11.2%11%89+ strikeouts: 18.6%19%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%14.9%
Velo93.8
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%10698.19.9%
Slider35%11489.721.9%
Changeup8%9192.415.8%
Curveball7%9785.715.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228641%20%18%.057
Sep 169139%15%22%.320
Sep 109033%20%17%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jared Jones PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Spencer Torkelson: every projection we've made →