MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 9David Hamilton
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.313wOBA vs RHP.303xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · STLAndre Pallante
Throws rightBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.7projected K14%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Andre Pallante's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 95.1 mph, +1.2″ arm side, +9.5″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .340 vs league .357 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 47%Slider: 24% usage, 87.5 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -0.5″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .302 vs league .320 (pitcher's edge).Slider 24%Curveball: 15% usage, 78.1 mph, -5.2″ arm side, -16.8″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .264 vs league .282 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 15%Sinker: 14% usage, 95.1 mph, +11.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .345 vs league .361 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is David Hamilton's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

David Hamilton's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 97.5 mph at 11°Single: 100.5 mph at 15°Out: 65.4 mph at 38°Single: 82.8 mph at 17°Out: 80.3 mph at -8°Out: 87.9 mph at 35°Out: 79.6 mph at 1°Out: 63.9 mph at 67°Single: 86.0 mph at 3°Single: 96.2 mph at 10°Out: 90.1 mph at 43°Out: 91.1 mph at 4°Out: 81.1 mph at 72°Out: 93.4 mph at 3°Out: 64.5 mph at -14°Out: 83.5 mph at 28°Out: 100.1 mph at 22°Single: 61.1 mph at -21°Single: 90.6 mph at 11°Single: 93.1 mph at 12°Triple: 96.3 mph at -3°Out: 70.7 mph at 53°Out: 97.5 mph at 21°Single: 25.2 mph at -52°Out: 101.6 mph at -2°Single: 104.1 mph at 18°Out: 86.1 mph at 4°Out: 87.1 mph at 3°Out: 91.8 mph at 1°Out: 72.8 mph at 75°Out: 97.2 mph at -18°Out: 73.0 mph at -21°Single: 102.1 mph at 11°Out: 86.4 mph at 51°Out: 34.4 mph at -30°Single: 27.2 mph at -64°Double: 102.9 mph at 20°Out: 91.6 mph at -16°Single: 31.9 mph at -58°Out: 83.3 mph at 28°
28% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.2%53.3%+1.9
2+ total bases25.3%25.0%+0.3
Home run3.7%5.2%-1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where David Hamilton hits
Where they meet

.309 xwOBA for David Hamilton in the spots Andre Pallante throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (+3 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and Andre Pallante puts 18% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Andre Pallante · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 35% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing4%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing11%14% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing14%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing18%
All · 641 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%
Fastball · 374 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%13% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters27% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters27%17% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Slider · 119 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%24% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters24%37% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters37%
Curveball · 111 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%18% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters56% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters56%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%
Splitter · 34 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

David Hamilton · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .314 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.290xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .316 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 20 pitches seen.311xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .371 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 15 pitches seen.299xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .200 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 34 pitches seen.266xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .352 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 39 pitches seen.367xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .306 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 29 pitches seen.314xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .376 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 26 pitches seen.331xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .292 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 27 pitches seen.327xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .342 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.315xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .567 on 3 PA) · league .377 · 64 pitches seen.415xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .263 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.270xwOBA .213 shrunk (raw .167 on 13 PA) · league .263 · 62 pitches seen.213xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .388 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 105 pitches seen.323
vs RHP · 519 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 22%17%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 20%15%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 13%12%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 17%26%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 32% of 25 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 36% of 31 swings · league 49%36%
vs RHP · 519 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 24 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 72%65%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 50% of 34 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 80% of 39 pitches · league 76%80%Swings at 83% of 29 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 46% of 26 pitches · league 65%46%Swings at 63% of 27 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 61% of 38 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 5% of 64 pitches · league 24%5%Swings at 31% of 36 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 40% of 62 pitches · league 40%40%Swings at 30% of 105 pitches · league 32%30%
vs RHP · 519 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

David Hamilton against each of Andre Pallante's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%95.1+1″ / +10″.340.35710.6%15.3%181About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider24%87.5-5″ / -1″.302.32028.5%30.0%90About league average vs these
Curveball15%78.1-5″ / -17″.264.28228.0%29.4%16About league average vs these
Sinker14%95.1+11″ / +14″.345.36112.4%16.7%244About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
David Hamilton · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.500.571.469.47612.5%12.5%6.2%85.7100.50.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1436.294.333.382.318.31527.8%5.6%19.0%86.1104.10.0%33.3%41.7%
Last 30 G2669.266.319.328.293.31718.8%7.2%15.4%84.3104.10.0%31.4%41.2%
90 days45121.269.336.333.316.30519.8%9.1%18.3%84.2104.61.2%32.6%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 86 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 28%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.15766.7%0.0%27.3%79.679.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G811.100.182.100.145.13345.5%0.0%27.8%76.590.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G1930.241.267.379.312.23823.3%0.0%19.1%77.3102.94.5%18.2%31.8%
90 days2540.216.237.351.289.24627.5%0.0%22.1%75.3102.93.6%17.9%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 25%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.357.333.318.33935.7%7.1%14.8%84.9100.50.0%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1547.250.298.318.278.27331.9%4.3%21.0%84.5104.10.0%27.6%34.5%
Last 30 G3099.258.303.344.298.29320.2%5.1%16.4%82.2104.11.4%27.4%38.4%
90 days50161.255.312.338.309.29121.7%6.8%19.1%82.0104.61.8%28.9%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 27%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 8%
David Hamilton · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating29Below average
Last 100 pitches7trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.292 / .295results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter88.897.511.821Double
Sep 25RHPFastball92.0100.515.716Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.365.438.510Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.282.817.910Single
Sep 22RHPCutter91.580.3-8.120Out
Sep 22RHPFastball98.387.935.035Out
Sep 19LHPCutter83.079.61.212Out
Sep 17RHPCutter93.263.967.000Out
Sep 17RHPFastball98.386.03.357Single
Sep 15RHPFastball92.696.210.648Single
Sep 15LHPSlider84.090.143.015Out
Sep 12RHPSlider82.091.14.391Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25423001
Sep 23300011
Sep 22311000
Sep 19300002
Sep 18100001
Sep 17211000
Sep 15411002
Sep 12400002
Sep 11200000
Sep 6400011

Two strikes

Andre Pallante STL · RHPwith two strikes
Andre Pallante with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider28%27%25.5%15.5%21.4%
Fastball38%27%16.0%13.1%18.3%
Curveball16%25%33.3%15.6%20.7%
Sinker14%17%3.2%1.9%17.7%
Splitter3%4%20.0%9.1%21.3%
David Hamilton bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
David Hamilton with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.1%41.3%
Whiff%19.5%21.6%
Contact%80.5%78.4%
Chase%37.7%39.4%
wOBA.219.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.8%22.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.290
K%22.6%
BB%6.9%
Whiff%9.2%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%20.0%
Avg EV82.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

119 PA
wOBA.313
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/100-0.75
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%20.7%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Andre PallanteRHP · STL vs MIL
3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.3 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 50.0%50%≤34 strikeouts: 19.2%19%45 strikeouts: 14.1%14%56 strikeouts: 8.6%9%67 strikeouts: 4.6%5%78 strikeouts: 2.1%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.4%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.5%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%8.3%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff91
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball38%8695.35.9%
Slider28%9588.013.4%
Curveball16%8779.410.0%
Sinker14%9595.63.1%
Splitter3%10990.05.9%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22898%7%28%.270
Sep 15997%6%30%.444
Sep 98821%9%37%.269

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Andre Pallante STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.David Hamilton: every projection we've made →