MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 5José Fermín
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.293wOBA vs RHP.296xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · MILJacob Misiorowski
Throws rightBTB Stuff 134Trending Down
7.8projected K37%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Misiorowski's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 61% usage, 100.2 mph, +10.7″ arm side, +15.6″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .322 vs league .321 (about even).Fastball 61%Slider: 15% usage, 93.1 mph, -3.1″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .301 vs league .301 (about even).Slider 15%Curveball: 11% usage, 87.7 mph, -5.9″ arm side, -8.5″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .271 vs league .270 (about even).Curveball 11%Cutter: 10% usage, 95.9 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .312 vs league .311 (about even).Cutter 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is José Fermín's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.8%59.6%-2.8
2+ total bases29.3%31.7%-2.3
Home run5.3%6.4%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where José Fermín hits
Jacob Misiorowski · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing9%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing4%27% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing27%
All · 446 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Fastball · 274 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%14% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters14%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%51% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters51%
Slider · 80 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%37% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Cutter · 65 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%60% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters60%
Curveball · 25 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

José Fermín against each of Jacob Misiorowski's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball61%100.2+11″ / +16″.322.32111.4%21.2%52About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider15%93.1-3″ / +6″.301.30118.4%31.0%34About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball11%87.7-6″ / -9″.271.27022.9%37.3%23About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter10%95.9-2″ / +7″.312.31114.4%26.0%25About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating56Average
Last 100 pitches83trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.303 / .322running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob Misiorowski with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball63%58%33.8%31.0%18.3%
Curveball11%19%36.4%28.8%20.7%
Slider11%16%35.9%25.5%21.4%
Cutter14%7%18.8%19.2%18.7%
José Fermín bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
José Fermín with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.2%43.3%
Whiff%15.0%23.5%
Contact%85.0%76.5%
Chase%35.0%39.4%
wOBA.235.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.9%25.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.323
K%14.0%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%5.2%
Barrel%2.0%
Hard-hit%24.1%
Avg EV85.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

144 PA
wOBA.293
xwOBA vs this mix.296against pitches like his
RV/100-0.75
Hard-hit%23.3%
K%14.7%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL vs STL
7.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 21.3 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 5.2%5%≤34 strikeouts: 6.5%6%45 strikeouts: 10.1%10%56 strikeouts: 12.9%13%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 13.7%14%89+ strikeouts: 37.4%37%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%37.3%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%18.3%
Velo97.7
BTB Stuff134
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball63%142100.918.5%
Cutter14%12895.611.2%
Curveball11%10788.521.0%
Slider11%12791.224.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 158235%23%15%.274
Sep 89338%15%21%.223
Sep 29224%12%14%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.José Fermín: every projection we've made →