MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 8Sal Frelick
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedCold
.246wOBA vs RHP.240xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · STLAndre Pallante
Throws rightBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.7projected K14%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Andre Pallante's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 95.1 mph, +1.2″ arm side, +9.5″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .352 vs league .357 (about even).Fastball 47%Slider: 24% usage, 87.5 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -0.5″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .315 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 24%Curveball: 15% usage, 78.1 mph, -5.2″ arm side, -16.8″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .277 vs league .282 (about even).Curveball 15%Sinker: 14% usage, 95.1 mph, +11.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .356 vs league .361 (about even).Sinker 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sal Frelick's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.8%57.4%+1.4
2+ total bases29.1%28.9%+0.2
Home run3.9%5.1%-1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sal Frelick hits
Andre Pallante · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 35% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing4%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing11%14% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing14%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing18%
All · 641 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%
Fastball · 374 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%13% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters27% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters27%17% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Slider · 119 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%24% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters24%37% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters37%
Curveball · 111 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%18% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters56% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters56%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%
Splitter · 34 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Sal Frelick against each of Andre Pallante's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%95.1+1″ / +10″.352.3576.6%15.3%331About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider24%87.5-5″ / -1″.315.32014.3%30.0%178About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball15%78.1-5″ / -17″.277.28214.2%29.4%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker14%95.1+11″ / +14″.356.3617.6%16.7%413About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.264 / .266results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Andre Pallante STL · RHPwith two strikes
Andre Pallante with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider28%27%25.5%15.5%21.4%
Fastball38%27%16.0%13.1%18.3%
Curveball16%25%33.3%15.6%20.7%
Sinker14%17%3.2%1.9%17.7%
Splitter3%4%20.0%9.1%21.3%
Sal Frelick bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sal Frelick with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%28.1%41.3%
Whiff%10.8%21.6%
Contact%89.2%78.4%
Chase%35.7%39.4%
wOBA.270.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes11.0%22.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.317
K%14.2%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%7.0%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%21.7%
Avg EV84.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

81 PA
wOBA.246
xwOBA vs this mix.240against pitches like his
RV/100-2.15
Hard-hit%23.4%
K%14.3%
BB%6.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Andre PallanteRHP · STL vs MIL
3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.3 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 50.0%50%≤34 strikeouts: 19.2%19%45 strikeouts: 14.1%14%56 strikeouts: 8.6%9%67 strikeouts: 4.6%5%78 strikeouts: 2.1%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.4%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.5%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%8.3%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff91
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball38%8695.35.9%
Slider28%9588.013.4%
Curveball16%8779.410.0%
Sinker14%9595.63.1%
Splitter3%10990.05.9%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22898%7%28%.270
Sep 15997%6%30%.444
Sep 98821%9%37%.269

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Andre Pallante STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sal Frelick: every projection we've made →