MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 3William Contreras
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.323wOBA vs RHP.328xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · STLAndre Pallante
Throws rightBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.7projected K14%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Andre Pallante's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 95.1 mph, +1.2″ arm side, +9.5″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .368 vs league .342 (hitter's edge).Fastball 47%Slider: 24% usage, 87.5 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -0.5″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .315 vs league .291 (hitter's edge).Slider 24%Curveball: 15% usage, 78.1 mph, -5.2″ arm side, -16.8″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .321 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Curveball 15%Sinker: 14% usage, 95.1 mph, +11.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. William Contreras: wOBA .376 vs league .350 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is William Contreras's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

William Contreras's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.3 mph at 25°Out: 101.7 mph at 20°Out: 87.7 mph at 34°Out: 88.8 mph at -24°Single: 103.1 mph at 0°Out: 81.0 mph at -5°Out: 72.8 mph at 41°Out: 86.5 mph at 0°Single: 78.1 mph at 3°Out: 76.5 mph at -9°Single: 83.3 mph at 12°Out: 81.1 mph at 25°Out: 64.5 mph at -26°Home run: 106.9 mph at 43°Single: 92.7 mph at 8°Out: 104.6 mph at 16°Out: 49.1 mph at -22°Out: 45.3 mph at -64°Out: 86.2 mph at 79°Double: 111.7 mph at 9°Out: 93.4 mph at 1°Single: 95.4 mph at 15°Out: 103.7 mph at -32°Out: 90.0 mph at 22°Out: 91.0 mph at 23°Out: 81.5 mph at 28°Out: 102.3 mph at 15°Out: 88.4 mph at 26°Out: 102.7 mph at 1°Double: 96.0 mph at 36°Home run: 101.0 mph at 26°Out: 50.5 mph at 42°Out: 92.8 mph at -19°Out: 94.7 mph at 40°Single: 104.8 mph at -3°Home run: 109.3 mph at 26°Out: 100.2 mph at 49°Out: 89.9 mph at 37°Out: 105.8 mph at 18°Home run: 102.1 mph at 26°
43% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.9%62.4%+1.5
2+ total bases36.1%36.1%0.0
Home run8.7%11.1%-2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where William Contreras hits
Where they meet

.310 xwOBA for William Contreras in the spots Andre Pallante throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .309 (+1 points). His best spot against righties is down and left, outside, and Andre Pallante puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Andre Pallante · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 3% per swing15%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing8%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing7%26% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing26%
All · 462 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%12% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters12%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%11% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%
Slider · 186 pitches · catcher's view
11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%36% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters36%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Sinker · 157 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%73% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters73%
Curveball · 69 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%24% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters24%
Fastball · 50 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

William Contreras · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .182 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.237xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .511 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 33 pitches seen.405xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .139 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.217xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .396 on 24 PA) · league .342 · 44 pitches seen.378xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .408 on 14 PA) · league .386 · 41 pitches seen.398xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .326 on 20 PA) · league .321 · 51 pitches seen.324xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .289 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 30 pitches seen.298xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .364 on 21 PA) · league .351 · 53 pitches seen.359xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .299 on 21 PA) · league .292 · 41 pitches seen.296xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .319 on 22 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.339xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .223 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 44 pitches seen.259xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .420 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 77 pitches seen.361xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .256 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 226 pitches seen.261
vs RHP · 786 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 24% of 21 swings · league 22%24%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 13% of 40 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 12% of 33 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 18% of 34 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 5% of 37 swings · league 13%5%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 13% of 31 swings · league 28%13%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 24%18%Whiff 24% of 34 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 58% of 50 swings · league 49%58%
vs RHP · 786 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 78% of 27 pitches · league 62%78%Swings at 76% of 33 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 41% of 22 pitches · league 66%41%Swings at 91% of 44 pitches · league 70%91%Swings at 81% of 41 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 67% of 51 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 63% of 30 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 70% of 53 pitches · league 68%70%Swings at 59% of 41 pitches · league 60%59%Swings at 32% of 97 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 25% of 44 pitches · league 34%25%Swings at 44% of 77 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 22% of 226 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 786 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

William Contreras against each of Andre Pallante's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%95.1+1″ / +10″.368.34222.0%20.8%473About league average vs these
Slider24%87.5-5″ / -1″.315.29133.4%33.0%434About league average vs these
Curveball15%78.1-5″ / -17″.321.29729.1%29.1%39About league average vs these
Sinker14%95.1+11″ / +14″.376.35015.8%15.6%693About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
William Contreras · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.250.278.438.350.27122.2%5.6%19.4%86.5106.97.7%30.8%30.8%
Last 15 G1547.286.340.595.412.36521.3%8.5%23.7%91.0111.712.1%48.5%45.5%
Last 30 G2890.312.389.597.435.37520.0%12.2%20.1%92.3111.713.1%47.5%44.3%
90 days66216.232.310.411.323.33416.7%9.7%19.8%91.0111.710.2%46.5%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 157 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 22%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.500.000.350.3640.0%50.0%0.0%87.787.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G921.176.286.412.298.30814.3%14.3%21.2%92.0105.86.7%46.7%33.3%
Last 30 G1848.326.354.465.371.27512.5%6.2%16.9%89.5108.42.6%43.6%30.8%
90 days4089.244.315.372.334.27013.5%9.0%20.6%87.9112.84.4%35.3%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 21%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.235.300.412.350.28120.0%10.0%17.6%86.6106.97.1%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1568.254.324.542.377.34719.1%10.3%22.9%91.3111.710.4%47.9%41.7%
Last 30 G30138.317.377.550.413.34117.4%10.1%19.0%91.2111.79.0%46.0%39.0%
90 days70305.235.311.399.326.31615.7%9.5%20.1%90.1112.88.4%43.1%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 225 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
William Contreras · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating68Above average
Last 100 pitches86trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.321 / .334results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker91.2100.325.733Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.5101.720.642Out
Sep 25LHPSinker94.887.734.030Out
Sep 25RHPSinker91.288.8-24.046Out
Sep 25RHPSinker96.2103.10.410Single
Sep 24RHPSweeper82.781.0-5.143Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper83.572.841.307Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup82.686.50.168Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball79.178.13.157Single
Sep 23RHPFastball96.576.5-9.050Error
Sep 22RHPSinker94.683.312.483Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper82.181.125.273Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511000
Sep 24300010
Sep 23411001
Sep 22411002
Sep 20414111
Sep 19411000
Sep 18512011
Sep 16511001
Sep 15512000
Sep 12514120

Two strikes

Andre Pallante STL · RHPwith two strikes
Andre Pallante with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider28%27%25.5%15.5%21.4%
Fastball38%27%16.0%13.1%18.3%
Curveball16%25%33.3%15.6%20.7%
Sinker14%17%3.2%1.9%17.7%
Splitter3%4%20.0%9.1%21.3%
William Contreras bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
William Contreras with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.3%43.3%
Whiff%22.9%23.5%
Contact%77.1%76.5%
Chase%35.9%39.4%
wOBA.264.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.7%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.333
K%16.4%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%9.7%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%31.7%
Avg EV90.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

216 PA
wOBA.323
xwOBA vs this mix.328against pitches like his
RV/1000.17
Hard-hit%32.8%
K%17.2%
BB%9.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Andre PallanteRHP · STL vs MIL
3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.3 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 50.0%50%≤34 strikeouts: 19.2%19%45 strikeouts: 14.1%14%56 strikeouts: 8.6%9%67 strikeouts: 4.6%5%78 strikeouts: 2.1%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.4%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.5%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%8.3%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff91
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball38%8695.35.9%
Slider28%9588.013.4%
Curveball16%8779.410.0%
Sinker14%9595.63.1%
Splitter3%10990.05.9%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22898%7%28%.270
Sep 15997%6%30%.444
Sep 98821%9%37%.269

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Andre Pallante STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.William Contreras: every projection we've made →