MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 6Brandon Marsh
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.256wOBA vs RHP.282xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · TBNick Martinez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
3.4projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nick Martinez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Changeup: 24% usage, 79.3 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .318 vs league .301 (hitter's edge).Changeup 24%Sinker: 21% usage, 92.5 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .378 vs league .363 (hitter's edge).Sinker 21%Cutter: 20% usage, 89.2 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .377 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Cutter 20%Fastball: 19% usage, 92.9 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .378 vs league .362 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, -16.0″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .306 vs league .291 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Slider: 5% usage, 85.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .349 vs league .333 (hitter's edge).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Marsh's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Marsh's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.6 mph at 47°Out: 63.0 mph at -62°Double: 100.1 mph at 22°Out: 97.1 mph at -7°Home run: 104.4 mph at 32°Single: 105.8 mph at 13°Out: 102.2 mph at -9°Out: 93.5 mph at 55°Out: 94.9 mph at 25°Single: 72.6 mph at 45°Out: 32.9 mph at -23°Out: 77.3 mph at -38°Out: 91.7 mph at 29°Out: 95.3 mph at 51°Out: 87.4 mph at -15°Out: 62.9 mph at -18°Out: 59.9 mph at -16°Out: 94.0 mph at 8°Out: 88.0 mph at -7°Out: 98.1 mph at 32°Out: 77.4 mph at -32°Out: 71.7 mph at -14°Single: 104.8 mph at 10°Out: 105.6 mph at -21°Double: 103.8 mph at 21°Single: 90.5 mph at 18°Out: 99.5 mph at 49°Out: 84.7 mph at 40°Out: 104.4 mph at 2°Out: 78.2 mph at 4°Out: 90.9 mph at 79°Out: 84.4 mph at 9°Out: 85.9 mph at 40°Out: 94.9 mph at 23°Out: 68.3 mph at -5°Out: 66.2 mph at -13°Out: 88.9 mph at 47°Out: 95.7 mph at 24°Single: 92.5 mph at 2°Single: 97.1 mph at 16°
35% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.9%55.3%+3.6
2+ total bases35.7%32.6%+3.1
Home run11.6%9.9%+1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
+1.2
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brandon Marsh hits
Where they meet

.278 xwOBA for Brandon Marsh in the spots Nick Martinez throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (-27 points). His best spot against righties is down-right, and Nick Martinez puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Nick Martinez · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing8%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing9%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing13%15% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing15%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing13%
All · 648 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%14% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%39% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters39%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Changeup · 175 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Sinker · 174 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%20% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters20%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 153 pitches · catcher's view
13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters20%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 99 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%33% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters33%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Slider · 45 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Brandon Marsh · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .194 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.240xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .203 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 42 pitches seen.262xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .117 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 38 pitches seen.200xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .396 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 36 pitches seen.370xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .330 on 28 PA) · league .386 · 55 pitches seen.347xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .179 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.242xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .193 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 46 pitches seen.244xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .418 on 23 PA) · league .351 · 57 pitches seen.395xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .466 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 35 pitches seen.371xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .324 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 149 pitches seen.344xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .201 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 61 pitches seen.245xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .237 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 89 pitches seen.247xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .219 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 151 pitches seen.235
vs RHP · 824 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 22%29%Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 20%4%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 19%5%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 4% of 49 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 3% of 30 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 7% of 42 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 28%45%Whiff 27% of 26 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 37% of 43 swings · league 32%37%Whiff 46% of 59 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 824 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 52% of 33 pitches · league 62%52%Swings at 60% of 42 pitches · league 72%60%Swings at 58% of 38 pitches · league 66%58%Swings at 69% of 36 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 89% of 55 pitches · league 76%89%Swings at 94% of 32 pitches · league 70%94%Swings at 61% of 46 pitches · league 65%61%Swings at 74% of 57 pitches · league 68%74%Swings at 69% of 35 pitches · league 60%69%Swings at 13% of 149 pitches · league 24%13%Swings at 43% of 61 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 48% of 89 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 39% of 151 pitches · league 32%39%
vs RHP · 824 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Marsh against each of Nick Martinez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Changeup24%79.3+12″ / +5″.318.30127.9%28.5%125About league average vs these
Sinker21%92.5+14″ / +14″.378.36318.6%16.7%474About league average vs these
Cutter20%89.2-2″ / +11″.377.36119.9%18.4%280About league average vs these
Fastball19%92.9+6″ / +18″.378.36218.2%16.8%476About league average vs these
Curveball12%81.0-1″ / -16″.306.29129.4%28.3%55About league average vs these
Slider5%85.0-1″ / +2″.349.33328.1%27.8%246About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Marsh · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.222.300.556.360.33050.0%10.0%34.8%91.0105.825.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1533.161.188.290.214.24630.3%3.0%27.3%86.4105.89.1%36.4%36.4%
Last 30 G3069.172.221.250.216.24026.1%5.8%22.4%87.4105.86.4%29.8%38.3%
90 days72213.196.259.299.256.28721.1%8.0%19.5%88.8105.86.6%40.4%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 151 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G13.333.333.667.417.26733.3%0.0%33.3%98.6100.10.0%100.0%50.0%
Last 15 G25.200.200.400.250.18340.0%0.0%18.2%91.5100.10.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 30 G710.200.200.300.215.15130.0%0.0%23.8%81.5100.10.0%28.6%14.3%
90 days2542.154.195.256.206.21542.9%4.8%35.4%79.3104.513.6%27.3%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 23%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.250.308.583.373.31646.2%7.7%34.6%93.5105.816.7%66.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1538.167.189.306.219.23731.6%2.6%26.0%87.0105.88.0%40.0%36.0%
Last 30 G3079.176.218.257.216.22826.6%5.1%22.6%86.6105.85.6%29.6%35.2%
90 days73255.189.249.292.248.27524.7%7.5%22.1%87.6105.87.5%38.7%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 6%
Brandon Marsh · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating22Poor
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.240 / .287running 47 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball82.390.647.009Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.163.0-62.260Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.2100.122.555Double
Sep 22LHPSinker92.297.1-7.247Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.2104.4321.451Home run
Sep 20RHPFastball95.9105.813.883Single
Sep 19RHPFastball95.5102.2-9.299Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.693.555.015Out
Sep 17RHPCutter90.494.925.274Out
Sep 17RHPFastball96.372.645.197Single
Sep 17RHPCutter81.732.9-23–Sac bunt
Sep 16LHPCutter85.577.3-38.111Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 24100000
Sep 23200011
Sep 22426101
Sep 20411003
Sep 19200001
Sep 18100000
Sep 17411001
Sep 16400001
Sep 13200000

Two strikes

Nick Martinez TB · RHPwith two strikes
Nick Martinez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker33%33%8.2%19.1%17.7%
Fastball14%24%14.3%13.1%18.3%
Changeup24%24%17.0%11.9%18.4%
Cutter24%17%8.8%11.7%18.7%
Slider5%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Brandon Marsh bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Marsh with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.4%41.3%
Whiff%26.1%21.6%
Contact%73.9%78.4%
Chase%39.0%39.4%
wOBA.248.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.2%18.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.284
K%24.7%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV87.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

209 PA
wOBA.256
xwOBA vs this mix.282against pitches like his
RV/100-1.56
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%21.6%
BB%7.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick MartinezRHP · TB vs PHI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.8 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.5%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.7%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.6%4%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.7%
BB%2.5%
Whiff%7.8%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9992.24.8%
Cutter24%8789.05.4%
Changeup24%9877.912.5%
Fastball14%7892.68.8%
Slider5%8284.316.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229429%10%17%.277
Sep 167216%6%21%.353
Sep 106815%7%20%.090

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Marsh: every projection we've made →