MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 9Edmundo Sosa
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.263wOBA vs RHP.276xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · TBNick Martinez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
3.4projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nick Martinez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Changeup: 24% usage, 79.3 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .312 vs league .322 (about even).Changeup 24%Sinker: 21% usage, 92.5 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .343 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 21%Cutter: 20% usage, 89.2 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .317 vs league .328 (about even).Cutter 20%Fastball: 19% usage, 92.9 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .335 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, -16.0″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .283 vs league .293 (about even).Curveball 12%Slider: 5% usage, 85.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .295 vs league .305 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Edmundo Sosa's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.7%57.9%+2.8
2+ total bases33.8%31.9%+1.9
Home run9.6%9.4%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Edmundo Sosa hits
Nick Martinez · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing4%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing11%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%21% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing21%
All · 499 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Sinker · 203 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%37% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Cutter · 123 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%26% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Changeup · 96 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%34% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters34%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%
Fastball · 61 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Edmundo Sosa against each of Nick Martinez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Changeup24%79.3+12″ / +5″.312.32233.6%31.5%45About league average vs these
Sinker21%92.5+14″ / +14″.343.35315.6%13.5%207About league average vs these
Cutter20%89.2-2″ / +11″.317.32828.6%24.8%115About league average vs these
Fastball19%92.9+6″ / +18″.335.34624.5%20.5%170About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball12%81.0-1″ / -16″.283.29328.3%26.6%31About league average vs these
Slider5%85.0-1″ / +2″.295.30535.3%31.9%145About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating55Average
Last 100 pitches69trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.342 / .322running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Nick Martinez TB · RHPwith two strikes
Nick Martinez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker33%33%8.2%19.1%17.7%
Fastball14%24%14.3%13.1%18.3%
Changeup24%24%17.0%11.9%18.4%
Cutter24%17%8.8%11.7%18.7%
Slider5%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Edmundo Sosa bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Edmundo Sosa with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.5%43.3%
Whiff%23.5%23.5%
Contact%76.5%76.5%
Chase%54.3%39.4%
wOBA.232.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.8%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.340
K%21.5%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%13.1%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%27.5%
Avg EV87.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

42 PA
wOBA.263
xwOBA vs this mix.276against pitches like his
RV/100-1.41
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%24.4%
BB%5.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick MartinezRHP · TB vs PHI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.8 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.5%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.7%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.6%4%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.7%
BB%2.5%
Whiff%7.8%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9992.24.8%
Cutter24%8789.05.4%
Changeup24%9877.912.5%
Fastball14%7892.68.8%
Slider5%8284.316.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229429%10%17%.277
Sep 167216%6%21%.353
Sep 106815%7%20%.090

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Edmundo Sosa: every projection we've made →