MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 2Jonathan Aranda
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.333wOBA vs RHP.314xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · PHIZack Wheeler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.8projected K34%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Zack Wheeler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 95.9 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .370 vs league .345 (hitter's edge).Fastball 41%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.4 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .383 vs league .358 (hitter's edge).Sinker 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, -2.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .372 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Cutter 16%Curveball: 10% usage, 81.2 mph, -10.1″ arm side, -10.7″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .313 vs league .287 (hitter's edge).Curveball 10%Sweeper: 9% usage, 83.8 mph, -13.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .341 vs league .315 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 9%Splitter: 5% usage, 87.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .325 vs league .299 (hitter's edge).Splitter 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jonathan Aranda's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jonathan Aranda's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 88.3 mph at 18°Out: 98.4 mph at -25°Out: 51.0 mph at 2°Single: 98.9 mph at 16°Out: 102.5 mph at 29°Out: 64.4 mph at 0°Home run: 98.7 mph at 31°Out: 54.9 mph at -59°Out: 94.3 mph at 48°Out: 57.5 mph at -13°Double: 98.1 mph at 25°Out: 93.9 mph at -6°Double: 97.1 mph at 21°Out: 102.9 mph at 19°Out: 75.5 mph at 13°Single: 83.7 mph at 21°Home run: 103.0 mph at 32°Home run: 99.8 mph at 37°Single: 102.6 mph at 15°Out: 84.4 mph at 51°Out: 99.6 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at 68°Out: 96.7 mph at -9°Double: 95.7 mph at 35°Out: 92.2 mph at -6°Out: 90.6 mph at -16°Out: 88.4 mph at -12°Single: 70.9 mph at 7°Out: 94.7 mph at 3°Out: 72.1 mph at -40°Double: 98.3 mph at 13°Out: 91.2 mph at 47°Single: 91.9 mph at 16°Out: 77.8 mph at 75°Out: 89.1 mph at 51°Out: 103.7 mph at -1°Home run: 100.7 mph at 30°Single: 94.9 mph at 17°Double: 88.9 mph at 24°Home run: 103.6 mph at 33°
43% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.4%64.3%-3.9
2+ total bases35.6%38.6%-3.0
Home run13.4%14.3%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.8
Home run
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jonathan Aranda hits
Where they meet

.307 xwOBA for Jonathan Aranda in the spots Zack Wheeler throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .299 (+8 points). His best spot against righties is down-right, and Zack Wheeler puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Zack Wheeler · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing11%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing12%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing20%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 59% per swing19%
All · 813 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters20%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 327 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters50% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters50%25% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Splitter · 187 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%28% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%15% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters15%
Cutter · 138 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters25% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters25%56% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters56%
Curveball · 113 pitches · catcher's view
16% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%12% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters12%36% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters36%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%
Sinker · 25 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%13% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters13%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%13% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters26% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters26%26% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Sweeper · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jonathan Aranda · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .155 shrunk (raw .037 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 64 pitches seen.155xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .268 on 14 PA) · league .307 · 49 pitches seen.286xwOBA .152 shrunk (raw .003 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 29 pitches seen.152xwOBA .441 shrunk (raw .526 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 66 pitches seen.441xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .313 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 49 pitches seen.343xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .244 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.277xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .331 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 37 pitches seen.322xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .357 on 26 PA) · league .351 · 54 pitches seen.355xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .550 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 31 pitches seen.431xwOBA .419 shrunk (raw .450 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 161 pitches seen.419xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .349 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 86 pitches seen.310xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .273 on 27 PA) · league .263 · 114 pitches seen.270xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .297 on 39 PA) · league .274 · 149 pitches seen.292
vs RHP · 930 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 32 swings · league 22%38%Whiff 32% of 37 swings · league 20%32%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 19%16%Whiff 25% of 48 swings · league 10%25%Whiff 11% of 36 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 9% of 35 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 10% of 29 swings · league 14%10%Whiff 0% of 44 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 17%9%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 28%45%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 24%16%Whiff 9% of 56 swings · league 32%9%Whiff 37% of 78 swings · league 49%37%
vs RHP · 930 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 64 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 76% of 49 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 66% of 29 pitches · league 66%66%Swings at 73% of 66 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 74% of 49 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 85% of 41 pitches · league 70%85%Swings at 78% of 37 pitches · league 65%78%Swings at 82% of 54 pitches · league 68%82%Swings at 74% of 31 pitches · league 60%74%Swings at 12% of 161 pitches · league 24%12%Swings at 22% of 86 pitches · league 34%22%Swings at 49% of 114 pitches · league 40%49%Swings at 52% of 149 pitches · league 32%52%
vs RHP · 930 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jonathan Aranda against each of Zack Wheeler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%95.9+9″ / +15″.370.34522.3%19.2%262About league average vs these
Sinker18%95.4+17″ / +9″.383.35816.9%14.4%177About league average vs these
Cutter16%91.2-2″ / +7″.372.34624.7%22.3%128About league average vs these
Curveball10%81.2-10″ / -11″.313.28727.8%30.8%60About league average vs these
Sweeper9%83.8-14″ / +2″.341.31524.8%27.2%75About league average vs these
Splitter5%87.1+14″ / +4″.325.29916.5%27.9%111About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jonathan Aranda · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.111.111.444.222.09866.7%0.0%26.1%87.298.70.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1438.212.316.515.378.26834.2%10.5%27.0%91.0103.05.0%45.0%30.0%
Last 30 G2886.227.326.467.354.32831.4%9.3%25.7%93.7110.06.2%52.1%43.8%
90 days71233.270.335.412.334.31625.3%7.3%20.4%91.8110.97.8%46.4%39.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.333.429.333.357.48928.6%14.3%28.6%85.2102.525.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G921.316.333.474.340.31023.8%4.8%20.0%84.2102.56.7%33.3%46.7%
Last 30 G1534.281.294.562.354.27823.5%2.9%18.0%86.2102.512.0%40.0%36.0%
90 days4182.237.280.368.295.30928.0%4.9%19.2%89.4108.211.1%46.3%46.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 30%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.200.250.400.281.27050.0%6.2%27.0%86.0102.514.3%57.1%57.1%
Last 15 G1559.250.322.500.364.28330.5%8.5%24.6%88.1103.05.7%40.0%37.1%
Last 30 G30120.243.317.495.354.31429.2%7.5%23.8%91.1110.08.2%47.9%41.1%
90 days74315.261.321.401.324.31526.0%6.7%20.1%91.2110.98.7%46.4%41.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 25%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
Jonathan Aranda · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating72Above average
Last 100 pitches38trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.328 / .338results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider86.188.318.741Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball83.798.4-25.094Out
Sep 23LHPSinker88.551.02.099Out
Sep 22LHPSlider86.298.916.623Single
Sep 22LHPSlider86.2102.5291.265Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup89.464.40.075Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.998.731.717Home run
Sep 18LHPChangeup82.454.9-59.190Out
Sep 18LHPCurveball77.394.348.010Out
Sep 18LHPSlider86.457.5-13.077Force out
Sep 18LHPSinker88.598.125.578Double
Sep 18RHPChangeup84.593.9-6.184Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411012
Sep 23400002
Sep 22311001
Sep 22100001
Sep 19414102
Sep 18512000
Sep 17512012
Sep 15411002
Sep 13528212
Sep 12411010

Two strikes

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball35%36%27.1%21.4%18.3%
Splitter18%23%39.7%26.9%21.3%
Curveball9%15%46.7%29.2%20.7%
Sweeper13%11%30.8%21.2%20.7%
Sinker15%11%3.6%19.6%17.7%
Cutter10%5%16.7%31.8%18.7%
Jonathan Aranda bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jonathan Aranda with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%41.3%
Whiff%19.2%21.6%
Contact%80.8%78.4%
Chase%38.8%39.4%
wOBA.247.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.2%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.344
K%26.1%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%10.2%
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%30.7%
Avg EV91.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

229 PA
wOBA.333
xwOBA vs this mix.314against pitches like his
RV/1000.33
Hard-hit%30.1%
K%25.6%
BB%6.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB
6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.7%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.1%10%45 strikeouts: 13.6%14%56 strikeouts: 15.2%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.4%12%89+ strikeouts: 24.3%24%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.7%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%16.1%
Velo90.1
BTB Stuff100
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%11095.114.3%
Splitter18%8387.425.5%
Sinker15%9794.86.6%
Sweeper13%9181.316.9%
Cutter10%11290.710.9%
Curveball9%10480.025.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2210148%21%9%.226
Sep 169120%14%32%.186
Sep 1011033%16%22%.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jonathan Aranda: every projection we've made →