MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 7Justin Crawford
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.320wOBA vs RHP.294xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · TBNick Martinez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
3.4projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nick Martinez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Changeup: 24% usage, 79.3 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .290 vs league .301 (about even).Changeup 24%Sinker: 21% usage, 92.5 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .352 vs league .363 (about even).Sinker 21%Cutter: 20% usage, 89.2 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .350 vs league .361 (about even).Cutter 20%Fastball: 19% usage, 92.9 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .352 vs league .362 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, -16.0″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .279 vs league .291 (about even).Curveball 12%Slider: 5% usage, 85.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .322 vs league .333 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Justin Crawford's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Justin Crawford's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 85.2 mph at -4°Out: 100.1 mph at 28°Out: 97.6 mph at 8°Single: 96.8 mph at 10°Out: 75.3 mph at 49°Out: 86.4 mph at -46°Out: 80.2 mph at -3°Triple: 93.0 mph at 20°Out: 90.1 mph at -26°Out: 59.5 mph at 45°Out: 69.5 mph at -20°Single: 65.7 mph at -46°Out: 33.9 mph at -20°Out: 89.9 mph at 46°Double: 102.9 mph at 24°Out: 89.9 mph at 28°Out: 74.4 mph at -60°Single: 90.7 mph at 16°Out: 73.9 mph at -45°Out: 87.9 mph at 3°Out: 102.0 mph at -6°Out: 73.8 mph at -42°Home run: 104.7 mph at 27°Out: 70.3 mph at -22°Single: 96.5 mph at 15°Single: 77.5 mph at -61°Out: 56.3 mph at 23°Out: 100.3 mph at -18°Single: 66.2 mph at -15°Out: 101.8 mph at 9°Double: 96.7 mph at 21°Out: 89.2 mph at 0°Out: 94.3 mph at -26°Out: 103.5 mph at -28°Out: 98.1 mph at 21°Out: 99.5 mph at -1°Out: 82.0 mph at -31°Out: 96.3 mph at -18°Single: 87.1 mph at -8°Single: 96.7 mph at -17°
38% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.2%59.3%+1.9
2+ total bases31.3%30.3%+1.0
Home run6.3%6.9%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.8
Home run
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Justin Crawford hits
Where they meet

.298 xwOBA for Justin Crawford in the spots Nick Martinez throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (-6 points). His best spot against righties is middle-right, and Nick Martinez puts 8% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Nick Martinez · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing8%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing9%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing13%15% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing15%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing13%
All · 648 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%14% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%39% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters39%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Changeup · 175 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Sinker · 174 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%20% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters20%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 153 pitches · catcher's view
13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters20%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 99 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%33% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters33%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Slider · 45 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Justin Crawford · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .296 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 35 pitches seen.284xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .421 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 28 pitches seen.345xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .218 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 17 pitches seen.244xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .275 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 38 pitches seen.307xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .391 on 14 PA) · league .386 · 41 pitches seen.389xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .544 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.433xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .295 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.304xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .338 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 28 pitches seen.344xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .325 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 36 pitches seen.312xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .345 on 15 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.359xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .178 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 48 pitches seen.230xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .176 on 24 PA) · league .263 · 78 pitches seen.205xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .274 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 115 pitches seen.274
vs RHP · 618 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 22%8%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 3% of 29 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 0% of 27 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 22% of 23 swings · league 28%22%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 32%17%Whiff 21% of 47 swings · league 49%21%
vs RHP · 618 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 71% of 35 pitches · league 62%71%Swings at 71% of 28 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 66%77%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 71% of 41 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 84% of 32 pitches · league 70%84%Swings at 40% of 25 pitches · league 65%40%Swings at 89% of 28 pitches · league 68%89%Swings at 72% of 36 pitches · league 60%72%Swings at 24% of 97 pitches · league 24%24%Swings at 52% of 48 pitches · league 34%52%Swings at 46% of 78 pitches · league 40%46%Swings at 41% of 115 pitches · league 32%41%
vs RHP · 618 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Justin Crawford against each of Nick Martinez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Changeup24%79.3+12″ / +5″.290.30119.7%28.5%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker21%92.5+14″ / +14″.352.36312.7%16.7%102About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter20%89.2-2″ / +11″.350.36114.5%18.4%49About league average vs these
Fastball19%92.9+6″ / +18″.352.36213.2%16.8%91About league average vs these
Curveball12%81.0-1″ / -16″.279.29118.0%28.3%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider5%85.0-1″ / +2″.322.33316.9%27.8%49About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Justin Crawford · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.273.273.455.340.38918.2%0.0%0.0%89.8100.112.5%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1538.235.270.324.281.30518.4%5.3%12.1%84.6103.53.7%33.3%37.0%
Last 30 G3082.236.288.278.269.29514.6%7.3%12.8%86.4104.61.6%40.3%27.4%
90 days66186.277.311.355.316.30312.4%5.4%11.4%85.9109.21.3%40.0%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 64%Line drive 17%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.06650.0%0.0%0.0%86.486.40.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G78.375.375.875.519.49412.5%0.0%6.7%84.6104.728.6%28.6%28.6%
Last 30 G78.375.375.875.519.49412.5%0.0%6.7%84.6104.728.6%28.6%28.6%
90 days1722.400.455.600.457.38813.6%4.5%13.2%80.4104.711.8%17.6%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.231.231.385.283.33523.1%0.0%0.0%89.4100.111.1%33.3%44.4%
Last 15 G1546.262.289.429.326.34017.4%4.3%11.1%84.6104.78.8%32.4%35.3%
Last 30 G3090.250.295.338.292.31314.4%6.7%12.2%86.2104.74.3%39.1%27.5%
90 days67208.290.327.382.332.31312.5%5.3%11.6%85.3109.22.4%37.7%29.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 64%Line drive 17%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 4%
Justin Crawford · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating29Below average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.308 / .296results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup88.685.2-4.171Double play
Sep 25RHPSinker90.3100.128.939Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.197.68.639Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.596.810.708Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.875.349.075Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.586.4-46.132Out
Sep 20RHPCutter90.280.2-3.111Out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.393.020.287Triple
Sep 20RHPCutter89.990.1-26.060Out
Sep 19RHPCutter90.059.545.153Out
Sep 19LHPSinker97.869.5-20.042Out
Sep 17RHPCutter90.965.7-46.227Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311000
Sep 24200001
Sep 23211000
Sep 22200001
Sep 20413001
Sep 19400002
Sep 17411000
Sep 16412010
Sep 13411010
Sep 12314100

Two strikes

Nick Martinez TB · RHPwith two strikes
Nick Martinez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker33%33%8.2%19.1%17.7%
Fastball14%24%14.3%13.1%18.3%
Changeup24%24%17.0%11.9%18.4%
Cutter24%17%8.8%11.7%18.7%
Slider5%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Justin Crawford bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Justin Crawford with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.7%41.3%
Whiff%17.0%21.6%
Contact%83.0%78.4%
Chase%41.0%39.4%
wOBA.248.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes14.2%18.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.325
K%14.7%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%6.8%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%28.9%
Avg EV85.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

182 PA
wOBA.320
xwOBA vs this mix.294against pitches like his
RV/100-0.56
Hard-hit%31.1%
K%13.7%
BB%5.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick MartinezRHP · TB vs PHI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.8 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.5%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.7%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.6%4%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.7%
BB%2.5%
Whiff%7.8%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9992.24.8%
Cutter24%8789.05.4%
Changeup24%9877.912.5%
Fastball14%7892.68.8%
Slider5%8284.316.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229429%10%17%.277
Sep 167216%6%21%.353
Sep 106815%7%20%.090

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Justin Crawford: every projection we've made →