MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 9Danny Jansen
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedHot
.359wOBA vs RHP.310xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MINDean Kremer
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.5projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dean Kremer's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 33% usage, 93.6 mph, +8.4″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .358 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 33%Cutter: 23% usage, 87.6 mph, -4.8″ arm side, +7.1″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .316 vs league .305 (about even).Cutter 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .365 vs league .354 (about even).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 77.2 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -13.7″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .319 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 12%Splitter: 11% usage, 82.6 mph, +10.4″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .315 vs league .304 (about even).Splitter 11%Changeup: 6% usage, 84.5 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .323 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Danny Jansen's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Danny Jansen's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 80.7 mph at 18°Out: 96.5 mph at 39°Out: 87.2 mph at 28°Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 75.0 mph at 62°Out: 78.2 mph at 40°Out: 80.9 mph at -1°Out: 103.1 mph at 7°Out: 93.7 mph at 36°Out: 84.2 mph at 77°Out: 96.8 mph at 36°Out: 98.3 mph at -3°Out: 77.8 mph at 48°Double: 99.0 mph at 3°Out: 83.5 mph at 7°Single: 84.7 mph at 0°Single: 71.1 mph at 41°Out: 79.5 mph at 59°Single: 66.7 mph at -50°Out: 90.5 mph at 46°Out: 87.3 mph at 25°Out: 24.2 mph at -73°Out: 98.0 mph at -5°Single: 103.9 mph at 4°Out: 89.5 mph at -11°Out: 98.2 mph at -5°Double: 104.4 mph at 16°Single: 95.6 mph at 10°Out: 92.9 mph at 19°Out: 31.4 mph at 4°Out: 68.7 mph at 62°Single: 101.6 mph at 5°Out: 84.5 mph at 5°Home run: 99.7 mph at 29°Single: 96.4 mph at 7°Out: 93.7 mph at 24°Out: 80.6 mph at 67°Out: 91.8 mph at 60°Single: 105.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 47°
38% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.7%52.8%+1.0
2+ total bases29.6%28.2%+1.3
Home run11.1%9.7%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Danny Jansen hits
Where they meet

.279 xwOBA for Danny Jansen in the spots Dean Kremer throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .298 (-19 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Dean Kremer puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Dean Kremer · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing1%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 60% per swing5%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing11%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%42% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing42%
All · 525 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters62% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters62%
Cutter · 182 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Fastball · 121 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%27% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters27%
Sinker · 95 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%10% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters9%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%44% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters44%
Splitter · 71 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%44% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters44%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Danny Jansen · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .226 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 9 pitches seen.267xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .265 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 10 pitches seen.299xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .018 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 7 pitches seen.228xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .224 on 5 PA) · league .342 · 9 pitches seen.307xwOBA .471 shrunk (raw .726 on 4 PA) · league .386 · 10 pitches seen.471xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .060 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 11 pitches seen.269xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .413 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 3 pitches seen.323xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .331 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 14 pitches seen.344xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .370 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 11 pitches seen.315xwOBA .427 shrunk (raw .729 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 13 pitches seen.427xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 13 pitches seen.285xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .451 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 9 pitches seen.290xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .117 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 57 pitches seen.216
vs RHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 20%33%Whiff 67% of 6 swings · league 19%67%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 11%13%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 17%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 28%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 24%67%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 46% of 13 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 72%60%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 66%86%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 65%67%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 60%64%Swings at 0% of 13 pitches · league 24%0%Swings at 23% of 13 pitches · league 34%23%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 23% of 57 pitches · league 32%23%
vs RHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Danny Jansen against each of Dean Kremer's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball33%93.6+8″ / +18″.358.34718.5%19.3%309About league average vs these
Cutter23%87.6-5″ / +7″.316.30525.8%29.3%186About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.3+15″ / +12″.365.35410.1%11.6%278About league average vs these
Curveball12%77.2-9″ / -14″.319.30920.4%26.9%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter11%82.6+10″ / +9″.315.30423.4%31.0%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup6%84.5+15″ / +4″.323.31323.8%32.0%66About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Danny Jansen · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.100.145.29418.2%9.1%22.2%91.0103.10.0%50.0%12.5%
Last 15 G1535.323.382.484.412.3508.6%2.9%20.0%88.9105.53.4%44.8%24.1%
Last 30 G2347.302.348.512.395.31214.9%2.1%24.1%87.5105.55.4%40.5%24.3%
90 days2347.302.348.512.395.31214.9%2.1%24.1%87.5105.55.4%40.5%24.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 16%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.000.286.000.200.2810.0%14.3%0.0%84.396.70.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G815.200.429.200.346.3176.7%20.0%5.9%79.4101.60.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1531.125.276.250.264.29519.4%12.9%21.2%78.2106.65.0%20.0%30.0%
90 days1531.125.276.250.264.29519.4%12.9%21.2%78.2106.65.0%20.0%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 15%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 25%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.067.222.067.167.28911.1%11.1%16.0%88.4103.10.0%38.5%23.1%
Last 15 G1550.293.396.415.394.3418.0%8.0%16.7%86.5105.52.6%38.5%23.1%
Last 30 G2378.239.320.418.345.30616.7%6.4%22.9%84.2106.65.3%33.3%26.3%
90 days2378.239.320.418.345.30616.7%6.4%22.9%84.2106.65.3%33.3%26.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 16%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 18%
Danny Jansen · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating39Below average
Last 100 pitches57trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.315 / .305results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.180.718.916Single
Sep 25RHPFastball92.896.539.139Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper78.587.228.066Out
Sep 25LHPCutter91.496.728.399Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper80.975.062.010Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.878.240.054Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.580.9-1.111Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.3103.17.591Out
Sep 22RHPCutter93.893.736.163Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.084.277.010Out
Sep 20RHPCutter86.496.836.261Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.498.3-3.293Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 24300001
Sep 23300010
Sep 22400010
Sep 20400001
Sep 19412010
Sep 17322000
Sep 16411000
Sep 15311010
Sep 13412001

Two strikes

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Dean Kremer with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter23%40%32.5%20.7%21.3%
Fastball30%27%15.7%14.6%18.3%
Cutter20%18%31.7%22.1%18.7%
Sinker14%8%5.9%17.2%17.7%
Curveball12%5%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Danny Jansen bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Danny Jansen with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.3%43.3%
Whiff%22.0%23.5%
Contact%78.0%76.5%
Chase%31.2%39.4%
wOBA.237.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.8%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.330
K%22.1%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%4.5%
Hard-hit%24.3%
Avg EV86.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

47 PA
wOBA.359
xwOBA vs this mix.310against pitches like his
RV/1001.18
Hard-hit%29.0%
K%18.2%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dean KremerRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.8%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.1%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff92
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball30%10292.57.4%
Splitter23%8482.318.6%
Cutter20%10987.015.9%
Sinker14%6791.94.8%
Curveball12%8176.510.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209636%16%18%.168
Sep 149426%14%26%.189
Sep 86915%13%15%.315

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Danny Jansen: every projection we've made →