MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 5Ezequiel Duran
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.304wOBA vs RHP.273xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · MINDean Kremer
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.5projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dean Kremer's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 33% usage, 93.6 mph, +8.4″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .338 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 33%Cutter: 23% usage, 87.6 mph, -4.8″ arm side, +7.1″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .297 vs league .305 (about even).Cutter 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .346 vs league .354 (about even).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 77.2 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -13.7″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .301 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 12%Splitter: 11% usage, 82.6 mph, +10.4″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .296 vs league .304 (about even).Splitter 11%Changeup: 6% usage, 84.5 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .305 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ezequiel Duran's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ezequiel Duran's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 100.0 mph at -5°Out: 84.1 mph at 67°Out: 88.9 mph at 0°Out: 79.5 mph at -7°Out: 99.6 mph at 33°Out: 89.6 mph at -24°Out: 84.5 mph at 62°Out: 104.4 mph at -2°Out: 95.1 mph at -16°Out: 97.2 mph at 36°Out: 90.8 mph at -2°Out: 80.1 mph at -48°Out: 95.9 mph at -23°Out: 94.4 mph at 30°Double: 90.1 mph at 15°Out: 87.7 mph at -27°Out: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 61.1 mph at 42°Out: 90.4 mph at 61°Out: 78.8 mph at 65°Out: 61.0 mph at -5°Out: 86.2 mph at -35°Single: 98.9 mph at 13°Single: 105.3 mph at 11°Out: 19.2 mph at 19°Single: 82.5 mph at -19°Single: 96.3 mph at 2°Out: 55.2 mph at 42°Single: 105.5 mph at 13°Out: 98.8 mph at 18°Out: 87.4 mph at 1°Out: 45.5 mph at 35°Out: 97.4 mph at -2°Out: 72.1 mph at -29°Out: 93.0 mph at 34°Out: 97.2 mph at 47°Out: 95.6 mph at 22°Out: 108.2 mph at 1°Out: 82.4 mph at 25°Out: 105.6 mph at -3°
40% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.7%58.3%+1.3
2+ total bases33.8%32.8%+1.0
Home run9.6%9.6%+0.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ezequiel Duran hits
Where they meet

.266 xwOBA for Ezequiel Duran in the spots Dean Kremer throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .298 (-33 points). His best spot against righties is down-left, and Dean Kremer puts 1% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Dean Kremer · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing1%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 60% per swing5%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing11%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%42% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing42%
All · 525 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters62% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters62%
Cutter · 182 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Fastball · 121 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%27% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters27%
Sinker · 95 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%10% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters9%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%44% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters44%
Splitter · 71 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%44% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters44%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Ezequiel Duran · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .175 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.227xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .548 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 35 pitches seen.378xwOBA .180 shrunk (raw .039 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 35 pitches seen.180xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .280 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 48 pitches seen.306xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .284 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 68 pitches seen.323xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .234 on 26 PA) · league .321 · 53 pitches seen.261xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .506 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.403xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .253 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 41 pitches seen.297xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .336 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 46 pitches seen.316xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .410 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.395xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .324 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 92 pitches seen.300xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .185 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 41 pitches seen.228xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .200 on 49 PA) · league .274 · 231 pitches seen.215
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 22% of 23 swings · league 22%22%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 19%35%Whiff 5% of 38 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 9% of 54 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 19% of 43 swings · league 11%19%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 13% of 31 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 28%14%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 24%14%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 57% of 91 swings · league 49%57%
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 85% of 27 pitches · league 62%85%Swings at 71% of 35 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 66% of 35 pitches · league 66%66%Swings at 79% of 48 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 79% of 68 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 81% of 53 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 65%79%Swings at 83% of 41 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 67% of 46 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 30% of 97 pitches · league 24%30%Swings at 30% of 92 pitches · league 34%30%Swings at 61% of 41 pitches · league 40%61%Swings at 39% of 231 pitches · league 32%39%
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ezequiel Duran against each of Dean Kremer's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball33%93.6+8″ / +18″.338.34720.3%19.3%295About league average vs these
Cutter23%87.6-5″ / +7″.297.30530.0%29.3%218About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.3+15″ / +12″.346.35411.9%11.6%286About league average vs these
Curveball12%77.2-9″ / -14″.301.30927.4%26.9%45About league average vs these
Splitter11%82.6+10″ / +9″.296.30425.1%31.0%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup6%84.5+15″ / +4″.305.31325.6%32.0%71About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ezequiel Duran · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.077.143.077.123.18735.7%7.1%24.0%91.1100.00.0%28.6%0.0%
Last 15 G1543.100.140.125.127.20125.6%2.3%16.5%82.7108.20.0%31.0%20.7%
Last 30 G2981.176.235.297.262.24624.7%6.2%22.0%86.0108.21.9%35.2%27.8%
90 days75214.227.271.404.302.27025.2%5.1%23.3%86.5110.25.5%33.1%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.25916.7%16.7%5.9%94.0104.40.0%75.0%0.0%
Last 15 G818.188.278.188.278.36916.7%11.1%19.1%94.2105.60.0%61.5%38.5%
Last 30 G2046.308.413.462.409.38919.6%13.0%23.5%91.5110.96.7%56.7%40.0%
90 days48104.307.404.466.400.35620.2%12.5%24.8%91.0110.94.4%51.5%39.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.056.150.056.121.21030.0%10.0%16.7%92.2104.40.0%45.5%0.0%
Last 15 G1561.125.180.143.172.25223.0%4.9%17.4%86.3108.20.0%40.5%26.2%
Last 30 G30127.221.299.354.315.29822.8%8.7%22.6%88.0110.93.6%42.9%32.1%
90 days77318.252.314.423.334.29823.6%7.5%23.8%87.9110.95.2%39.0%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 213 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
Ezequiel Duran · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .310running 21 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper78.7100.0-5.316Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper78.884.167.009Out
Sep 25RHPSinker94.888.90.302Double play
Sep 24LHPSlider84.379.5-7.091Out
Sep 23RHPSlider83.799.633.729Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.389.6-24.076Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.284.562.016Out
Sep 23LHPSinker96.3104.4-2.372Force out
Sep 22LHPFastball90.295.1-16.133Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper75.397.236.261Out
Sep 20RHPSinker82.790.8-2.280Out
Sep 19RHPSinker94.780.1-48.141Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24400002
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400012
Sep 19400002
Sep 18512000
Sep 17400001
Sep 16411002
Sep 15322000

Two strikes

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Dean Kremer with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter23%40%32.5%20.7%21.3%
Fastball30%27%15.7%14.6%18.3%
Cutter20%18%31.7%22.1%18.7%
Sinker14%8%5.9%17.2%17.7%
Curveball12%5%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Ezequiel Duran bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ezequiel Duran with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.7%43.3%
Whiff%22.5%23.5%
Contact%77.5%76.5%
Chase%40.7%39.4%
wOBA.245.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.3%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%24.0%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%25.4%
Avg EV87.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

210 PA
wOBA.304
xwOBA vs this mix.273against pitches like his
RV/100-0.04
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%25.2%
BB%7.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dean KremerRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.8%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.1%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff92
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball30%10292.57.4%
Splitter23%8482.318.6%
Cutter20%10987.015.9%
Sinker14%6791.94.8%
Curveball12%8176.510.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209636%16%18%.168
Sep 149426%14%26%.189
Sep 86915%13%15%.315

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ezequiel Duran: every projection we've made →