MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 3Gabriel Moreno
Bats rightTalent grade AContactNormal
.401wOBA vs RHP.344xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .393 vs league .358 (hitter's edge).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .346 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .318 vs league .283 (hitter's edge).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .391 vs league .356 (hitter's edge).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .313 vs league .278 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Gabriel Moreno's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Gabriel Moreno's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 108.8 mph at -1°Out: 102.7 mph at -14°Single: 99.5 mph at 13°Out: 99.1 mph at 51°Out: 90.5 mph at 41°Out: 80.8 mph at 62°Home run: 105.6 mph at 35°Out: 101.6 mph at -9°Single: 90.5 mph at 7°Out: 83.1 mph at 72°Single: 69.6 mph at 39°Single: 104.7 mph at 0°Out: 81.0 mph at -11°Out: 95.5 mph at 22°Double: 106.8 mph at 10°Out: 89.7 mph at 33°Out: 68.7 mph at -1°Single: 90.7 mph at 13°Out: 84.6 mph at 58°Single: 59.5 mph at -8°Out: 90.9 mph at 60°Out: 92.3 mph at -2°Single: 98.7 mph at 13°Out: 73.8 mph at 13°Out: 92.2 mph at -2°Out: 101.4 mph at -8°Home run: 101.1 mph at 25°Double: 107.1 mph at 4°Out: 92.6 mph at 39°Single: 84.0 mph at 12°Out: 80.3 mph at -19°Home run: 107.1 mph at 32°Single: 90.3 mph at -33°Out: 100.3 mph at -26°Single: 87.7 mph at 20°Out: 84.4 mph at 30°Home run: 97.5 mph at 30°Out: 69.8 mph at 63°Out: 74.0 mph at 3°Out: 69.9 mph at -32°
40% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit72.0%68.9%+3.1
2+ total bases43.8%40.7%+3.1
Home run12.5%11.1%+1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Gabriel Moreno hits
Gabriel Moreno · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .178 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 39 pitches seen.242xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .348 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 51 pitches seen.322xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .249 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 46 pitches seen.257xwOBA .432 shrunk (raw .495 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 50 pitches seen.432xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .356 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 64 pitches seen.366xwOBA .356 shrunk (raw .384 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 48 pitches seen.356xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .275 on 16 PA) · league .308 · 35 pitches seen.289xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .321 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 61 pitches seen.332xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .298 on 27 PA) · league .292 · 71 pitches seen.296xwOBA .413 shrunk (raw .444 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 102 pitches seen.413xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .492 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 79 pitches seen.387xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .370 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 63 pitches seen.321xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .312 on 53 PA) · league .274 · 298 pitches seen.305
vs RHP · 1007 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 22%15%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 20%19%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 19%17%Whiff 0% of 27 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 5% of 40 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 3% of 37 swings · league 13%3%Whiff 3% of 40 swings · league 17%3%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 24%9%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 32%21%Whiff 32% of 65 swings · league 49%32%
vs RHP · 1007 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 33% of 39 pitches · league 62%33%Swings at 41% of 51 pitches · league 72%41%Swings at 52% of 46 pitches · league 66%52%Swings at 54% of 50 pitches · league 70%54%Swings at 63% of 64 pitches · league 76%63%Swings at 58% of 48 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 63% of 35 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 61% of 61 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 56% of 71 pitches · league 60%56%Swings at 19% of 102 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 28% of 79 pitches · league 34%28%Swings at 46% of 63 pitches · league 40%46%Swings at 22% of 298 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 1007 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Gabriel Moreno against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.393.3589.0%17.5%63Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.346.31216.9%28.5%43Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.318.28320.2%31.7%18Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.391.3567.0%14.3%71Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.313.27817.9%29.7%16Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Gabriel Moreno · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.412.421.588.426.3325.3%5.3%8.0%91.5108.85.9%47.1%17.6%
Last 15 G1556.396.464.667.478.36612.5%10.7%12.6%92.3108.87.1%47.6%28.6%
Last 30 G29100.333.410.609.441.33914.0%11.0%13.7%90.4110.010.8%43.2%29.7%
90 days70234.343.419.542.418.34713.7%11.5%12.4%88.8110.06.9%38.2%34.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 22%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.667.7501.000.713.5540.0%25.0%0.0%85.8106.80.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G611.300.364.400.341.2760.0%9.1%0.0%82.7106.80.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1532.286.344.321.302.3553.1%9.4%4.7%86.4106.83.6%35.7%35.7%
90 days4993.296.366.457.361.38712.9%10.8%13.2%88.4110.95.6%42.3%43.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 28%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.450.478.650.476.3714.3%8.7%7.1%90.7108.85.0%45.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1567.379.448.621.455.35110.4%10.4%10.8%90.5108.85.8%42.3%26.9%
Last 30 G30132.322.394.539.407.34311.4%10.6%11.8%89.3110.08.8%41.2%31.4%
90 days74327.330.404.518.402.35913.5%11.3%12.7%88.7110.96.6%39.3%36.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 244 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 24%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 10%
Gabriel Moreno · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches84trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.398 / .369running 29 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases9/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker92.1108.8-1.435Single
Sep 25RHPSplitter86.3102.7-14.212Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.499.513.902Single
Sep 24RHPFastball90.699.151.011Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup84.190.541.014Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.280.862.026Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.0105.6351.437Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter89.2101.6-9.257Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.590.57.422Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.483.172.003Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.369.639.574Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.9104.70.472Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422010
Sep 24614101
Sep 23433000
Sep 22512000
Sep 20422010
Sep 19411010
Sep 18400001
Sep 16437100
Sep 15625121
Sep 14511011

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Gabriel Moreno bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Gabriel Moreno with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%30.1%42.4%
Whiff%14.8%22.2%
Contact%85.2%77.8%
Chase%42.4%39.9%
wOBA.269.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.4%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.382
K%14.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%5.9%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%29.4%
Avg EV88.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

235 PA
wOBA.401
xwOBA vs this mix.344against pitches like his
RV/1001.30
Hard-hit%28.0%
K%14.5%
BB%10.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Gabriel Moreno: every projection we've made →