MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 1Lars Nootbaar
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerNormal
.324wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .354 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .351 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .282 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .355 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .305 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Lars Nootbaar's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Lars Nootbaar's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.0 mph at 34°Out: 72.1 mph at -18°Home run: 106.4 mph at 32°Single: 73.5 mph at 16°Out: 79.4 mph at 3°Single: 106.8 mph at 13°Out: 81.6 mph at -11°Out: 93.4 mph at -33°Single: 99.1 mph at 4°Out: 81.3 mph at -19°Double: 99.6 mph at 23°Single: 105.6 mph at 6°Out: 70.7 mph at 71°Out: 89.9 mph at -37°Out: 92.5 mph at 5°Out: 97.7 mph at -16°Out: 82.9 mph at 9°Out: 68.7 mph at 11°Out: 101.7 mph at 55°Out: 93.1 mph at 26°Single: 106.3 mph at -5°Home run: 100.5 mph at 32°Out: 103.0 mph at -7°Single: 76.1 mph at 21°Single: 95.8 mph at 0°Out: 100.8 mph at -9°Single: 107.1 mph at 8°Out: 81.1 mph at -15°Out: 109.1 mph at 9°Out: 44.2 mph at -70°Out: 87.1 mph at 42°Out: 101.8 mph at 33°Single: 78.7 mph at 11°Single: 102.5 mph at -10°Out: 93.8 mph at 24°Single: 104.8 mph at 12°Out: 85.3 mph at 36°Double: 99.6 mph at 20°Out: 92.5 mph at 82°Out: 99.4 mph at 14°
50% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.2%59.5%+2.7
2+ total bases37.9%35.4%+2.4
Home run11.9%10.4%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Lars Nootbaar hits
Lars Nootbaar · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .237 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.253xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .466 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 29 pitches seen.371xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .366 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.297xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .414 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 57 pitches seen.384xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .356 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 65 pitches seen.368xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .230 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 38 pitches seen.274xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .304 on 23 PA) · league .308 · 63 pitches seen.305xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .375 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 62 pitches seen.366xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .293 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 48 pitches seen.293xwOBA .410 shrunk (raw .426 on 24 PA) · league .377 · 128 pitches seen.410xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .126 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 46 pitches seen.207xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .262 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 128 pitches seen.262xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .406 on 26 PA) · league .274 · 155 pitches seen.364
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 15% of 26 swings · league 22%15%Whiff 0% of 16 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 10% of 31 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 14% of 37 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 13% of 39 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 19% of 26 swings · league 28%19%Whiff 25% of 24 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 20% of 35 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 46% of 22 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 41 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 55% of 29 pitches · league 72%55%Swings at 55% of 20 pitches · league 66%55%Swings at 54% of 57 pitches · league 70%54%Swings at 57% of 65 pitches · league 76%57%Swings at 61% of 38 pitches · league 70%61%Swings at 52% of 63 pitches · league 65%52%Swings at 63% of 62 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 46% of 48 pitches · league 60%46%Swings at 20% of 128 pitches · league 24%20%Swings at 52% of 46 pitches · league 34%52%Swings at 27% of 128 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 14% of 155 pitches · league 32%14%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Lars Nootbaar against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.354.35513.4%16.8%53About league average vs these
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.351.35217.2%22.9%30About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.282.28319.8%26.9%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.355.35613.6%16.9%54About league average vs these
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.305.30623.2%30.3%14About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lars Nootbaar · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.333.368.556.397.36921.1%5.3%21.2%90.0106.87.1%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1548.310.375.476.371.34325.0%10.4%18.3%92.2109.16.5%51.6%41.9%
Last 30 G3093.301.366.542.389.38618.3%9.7%16.2%93.2110.510.4%53.7%44.8%
90 days67212.243.335.395.329.34018.9%12.3%16.2%92.2110.56.8%50.7%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 19%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11–1.000–.700.6980.0%100.0%––––––
Last 15 G57.000.333.000.267.53114.3%28.6%9.1%81.4101.825.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 30 G79.000.375.000.288.48522.2%33.3%23.1%81.4101.825.0%25.0%0.0%
90 days1935.071.235.071.182.29625.7%17.1%24.5%84.5106.510.0%30.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 10%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.333.400.556.412.38620.0%10.0%21.2%90.0106.87.1%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1555.283.370.435.359.36423.6%12.7%17.2%91.0109.18.6%48.6%37.1%
Last 30 G30102.284.366.511.380.39418.6%11.8%16.8%92.5110.511.3%52.1%42.3%
90 days69247.221.321.352.309.33419.8%13.0%17.3%91.3110.57.2%48.2%34.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 166 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Lars Nootbaar · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating67Above average
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .332running 26 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.9101.034.836Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter86.572.1-18.050Out
Sep 25RHPFastball90.8106.4321.737Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball92.773.516.660Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.479.43.225Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.4106.813.863Single
Sep 24RHPFastball92.481.6-11.086Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.193.4-33.063Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.199.14.457Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.981.3-19.056Out
Sep 20RHPSinker93.699.623.683Double
Sep 20RHPFastball94.1105.66.553Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25514120
Sep 24633000
Sep 23300002
Sep 20323001
Sep 19300001
Sep 18400002
Sep 16500011
Sep 15600014
Sep 14536101
Sep 13322000

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Lars Nootbaar bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Lars Nootbaar with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.2%41.0%
Whiff%17.7%21.3%
Contact%82.3%78.7%
Chase%36.4%39.6%
wOBA.273.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.0%20.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.309
K%20.5%
BB%12.1%
Whiff%7.2%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%32.0%
Avg EV91.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

212 PA
wOBA.324
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/100-0.20
Hard-hit%33.3%
K%19.8%
BB%12.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lars Nootbaar: every projection we've made →