MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYY · batting 5Spencer Jones
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.297wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · BALBrandon Young
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Up
5.6projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Brandon Young's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .341 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 41%Splitter: 18% usage, 83.9 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +1.2″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .274 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 18%Slider: 16% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.2″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .339 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 16%Sinker: 14% usage, 94.2 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .340 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 75.5 mph, -13.3″ arm side, -15.2″ rise. Spencer Jones: wOBA .316 vs league .328 (about even).Curveball 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Spencer Jones's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.3%57.8%+1.5
2+ total bases38.6%36.1%+2.5
Home run18.0%14.8%+3.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.8
Home run
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Spencer Jones against each of Brandon Young's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%94.6+6″ / +18″.341.35329.3%16.4%51About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter18%83.9+8″ / +1″.274.28646.4%27.1%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider16%85.2-2″ / +4″.339.35241.7%24.7%13About league average vs these
Sinker14%94.2+15″ / +11″.340.35227.9%15.3%39About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball12%75.5-13″ / -15″.316.32843.6%26.1%12About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .363running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brandon Young BAL · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Young with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%43%14.6%12.0%18.0%
Splitter18%22%39.6%19.4%19.0%
Slider16%21%37.0%25.8%21.1%
Sinker14%8%4.3%11.8%17.0%
Curveball12%7%50.0%25.0%20.0%
Spencer Jones bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Spencer Jones with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.4%41.0%
Whiff%28.9%21.3%
Contact%71.1%78.7%
Chase%36.0%39.6%
wOBA.229.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.0%20.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.331
K%32.8%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%18.4%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%28.7%
Avg EV92.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

166 PA
wOBA.297
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/100-0.18
Hard-hit%29.2%
K%34.7%
BB%7.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon YoungRHP · BAL vs NYY
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.9 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.1%19%≤34 strikeouts: 15.0%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.7%13%78 strikeouts: 8.9%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.7%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.4%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.9%
Velo88.9
BTB Stuff96
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%10494.510.0%
Splitter18%9983.818.9%
Slider16%8685.219.4%
Sinker14%8194.13.1%
Curveball12%9275.48.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208441%17%18%.281
Sep 1410625%10%25%.379
Sep 8869%8%18%.555

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Young BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Spencer Jones: every projection we've made →