MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
4:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CHC · batting 3Michael Busch
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.315wOBA vs RHP.307xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · BOSBrayan Bello
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
4.2projected K22%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Brayan Bello's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.0 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Michael Busch: wOBA .339 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 34%Changeup: 24% usage, 89.6 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Michael Busch: wOBA .295 vs league .301 (about even).Changeup 24%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.4 mph, -9.7″ arm side, -3.4″ rise. Michael Busch: wOBA .305 vs league .312 (about even).Sweeper 16%Cutter: 13% usage, 88.0 mph, 0.0″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Michael Busch: wOBA .335 vs league .341 (about even).Cutter 13%Fastball: 13% usage, 96.5 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +12.2″ rise. Michael Busch: wOBA .355 vs league .361 (about even).Fastball 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Michael Busch's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.1%61.6%-0.6
2+ total bases34.8%36.7%-1.9
Home run10.9%14.1%-3.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Michael Busch against each of Brayan Bello's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.0+16″ / +6″.339.34512.9%13.6%37About league average vs these
Changeup24%89.6+16″ / +6″.295.30132.8%26.1%41About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper16%86.4-10″ / -3″.305.31228.1%26.3%24About league average vs these
Cutter13%88.00″ / +2″.335.34126.1%26.6%35About league average vs these
Fastball13%96.5+6″ / +12″.355.36114.0%14.7%60About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating57Average
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.326 / .325results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPwith two strikes
Brayan Bello with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup24%29%19.6%12.0%18.6%
Sinker34%26%5.9%20.0%17.0%
Sweeper16%22%35.7%21.8%19.3%
Fastball13%18%16.7%17.4%18.0%
Cutter13%6%40.0%28.6%17.9%
Michael Busch bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Michael Busch with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.9%41.0%
Whiff%22.9%21.3%
Contact%77.1%78.7%
Chase%35.7%39.6%
wOBA.224.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.5%19.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.340
K%24.3%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV88.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

247 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.307against pitches like his
RV/1000.07
Hard-hit%24.1%
K%25.1%
BB%10.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brayan BelloRHP · BOS vs CHC
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.7%40%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.4%11%67 strikeouts: 6.8%7%78 strikeouts: 3.6%4%89+ strikeouts: 2.9%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.3%
BB%5.3%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo92.0
BTB Stuff93
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker36%10396.03.7%
Changeup23%8389.511.5%
Sweeper15%9286.316.5%
Cutter13%10288.018.9%
Fastball13%7596.47.8%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199338%12%14%.224
Sep 710332%11%18%.259
Sep 2690%7%29%.515

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Michael Busch: every projection we've made →