Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Trevor Story's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 64.0% | 63.9% | +0.1 |
| 2+ total bases | 34.3% | 34.9% | -0.7 |
| Home run | 9.8% | 11.6% | -1.8 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Trevor Story against each of David Peterson's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 31% | 92.3 | +14″ / +8″ | .362 | .361 | 21.2% | 14.5% | 7 | Little history vs this shape |
| Fastball | 26% | 92.8 | +2″ / +12″ | .345 | .343 | 25.3% | 17.6% | 8 | About league average vs these; misses them more than most |
| Slider | 19% | 86.6 | -3″ / +3″ | .311 | .310 | 32.6% | 25.7% | 3 | Little history vs this shape |
| Changeup | 15% | 85.6 | +13″ / +4″ | .321 | .320 | 35.2% | 28.2% | 3 | Little history vs this shape |
| Curveball | 8% | 80.0 | -4″ / -9″ | .304 | .303 | 37.1% | 29.6% | 3 | Little history vs this shape |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 26% | 30% | 20.3% | 17.7% | 18.6% |
| Slider | 19% | 30% | 25.0% | 17.1% | 21.6% |
| Sinker | 31% | 18% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 17.7% |
| Changeup | 15% | 15% | 18.5% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| Curveball | 8% | 7% | 50.0% | 32.0% | 21.2% |
| Other | 0% | 0% | – | 100.0% | 14.3% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 45.8% | 41.5% |
| Whiff% | 24.2% | 21.6% |
| Contact% | 75.8% | 78.4% |
| Chase% | 40.3% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .255 | .245 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 22.7% | 20.2% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
24 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 83 | 32% | 12% | 23% | .205 |
| Sep 14 | 85 | 30% | 14% | 17% | .209 |
| Sep 8 | 83 | 20% | 7% | 15% | .392 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.