MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 1Carlos Jorge
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.284wOBA vs RHP.286xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .334 vs league .340 (about even).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .288 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .349 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .278 vs league .284 (about even).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .340 vs league .346 (about even).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Carlos Jorge's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Carlos Jorge's last 27 balls in playHit (7)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 28.2 mph at 41°Out: 95.2 mph at -24°Single: 90.0 mph at 15°Out: 90.9 mph at -9°Out: 82.3 mph at 3°Out: 94.3 mph at 21°Home run: 101.0 mph at 32°Out: 63.2 mph at -9°Single: 68.7 mph at 24°Out: 82.1 mph at -34°Out: 75.4 mph at 10°Out: 92.1 mph at 6°Out: 28.1 mph at 0°Triple: 96.8 mph at 18°Out: 81.0 mph at 67°Out: 93.1 mph at 23°Out: 69.3 mph at -11°Out: 70.7 mph at 9°Out: 60.4 mph at 38°Out: 80.3 mph at 12°Single: 93.8 mph at 1°Out: 72.8 mph at -5°Single: 57.6 mph at -42°Out: 101.7 mph at 35°Out: 97.7 mph at 7°Out: 71.7 mph at 41°Out: 84.2 mph at 33°
19% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot26% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.5%60.0%-0.5
2+ total bases33.9%35.0%-1.1
Home run9.3%11.1%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Carlos Jorge hits
Carlos Jorge · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .226 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seen.262xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .289 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 3 pitches seen.306xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .256 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seen.262xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .008 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 9 pitches seen.316xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .891 on 1 PA) · league .386 · 11 pitches seen.425xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .222 on 2 PA) · league .321 · 5 pitches seen.307xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .204 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.277xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .338 on 4 PA) · league .351 · 15 pitches seen.348xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .221 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 7 pitches seen.278xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .212 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 17 pitches seen.353xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .883 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seen.321xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .188 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 21 pitches seen.238xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .144 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.226
vs RHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 10%33%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 13%23%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 32%14%Whiff 62% of 13 swings · league 49%62%
vs RHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 62%86%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 68%87%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 60%100%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 24%41%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 33% of 21 pitches · league 40%33%Swings at 45% of 29 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Carlos Jorge against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.334.34017.0%14.5%9About league average vs these
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.288.29436.1%30.7%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.349.35519.5%16.6%7Little history vs this shape
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.278.28427.5%28.5%8Little history vs this shape
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.340.34628.6%24.1%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carlos Jorge · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.200.200.400.313.21933.3%0.0%23.5%78.1101.010.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1438.167.211.306.250.24428.9%5.3%25.9%78.4101.74.0%20.0%32.0%
Last 30 G1438.167.211.306.250.24428.9%5.3%25.9%78.4101.74.0%20.0%32.0%
90 days1438.167.211.306.250.24428.9%5.3%25.9%78.4101.74.0%20.0%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 25 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9160.0%0.0%0.0%90.090.00.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G23.333.333.333.300.42333.3%0.0%50.0%80.890.00.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 30 G23.333.333.333.300.42333.3%0.0%50.0%80.890.00.0%0.0%50.0%
90 days23.333.333.333.300.42333.3%0.0%50.0%80.890.00.0%0.0%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 2 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 50%Fly ball 50%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.250.250.438.350.26231.2%0.0%22.9%79.2101.09.1%18.2%45.5%
Last 15 G1441.179.220.308.254.25729.3%4.9%27.0%78.6101.73.7%18.5%33.3%
Last 30 G1441.179.220.308.254.25729.3%4.9%27.0%78.6101.73.7%18.5%33.3%
90 days1441.179.220.308.254.25729.3%4.9%27.0%78.6101.73.7%18.5%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 27 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.241 / .294running 52 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter90.628.241.256Single
Sep 25RHPCurveball84.995.2-24.115Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper85.690.015.916Single
Sep 25RHPSinker96.190.9-9.222Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.982.33.287Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter84.194.321.222Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.9101.032.909Home run
Sep 22RHPSinker93.763.2-9.071Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball77.968.724.883Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup92.882.1-34.055Error
Sep 19RHPSplitter86.675.410.260Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.392.16.429Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25522001
Sep 24414101
Sep 22511003
Sep 20100000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18413010
Sep 17100000
Sep 15300011
Sep 14100001
Sep 11300001

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Carlos Jorge bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carlos Jorge with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%41.0%
Whiff%21.6%21.3%
Contact%78.4%78.7%
Chase%40.0%39.6%
wOBA.239.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.0%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.306
K%24.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%11.4%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%23.7%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

34 PA
wOBA.284
xwOBA vs this mix.286against pitches like his
RV/100-0.69
Hard-hit%19.0%
K%26.2%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carlos Jorge: every projection we've made →