MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 6Héctor Rodríguez
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.341wOBA vs RHP.291xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.0trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .344 vs league .340 (about even).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .299 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .359 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .289 vs league .284 (about even).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .351 vs league .346 (about even).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Héctor Rodríguez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Héctor Rodríguez's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 66.5 mph at -44°Single: 111.7 mph at -3°Single: 101.7 mph at -13°Out: 80.2 mph at 66°Double: 107.8 mph at 18°Home run: 108.8 mph at 27°Out: 100.1 mph at -1°Out: 85.8 mph at 27°Out: 74.6 mph at 7°Out: 87.9 mph at 39°Out: 89.4 mph at -23°Out: 88.8 mph at 61°Triple: 98.7 mph at 18°Out: 64.7 mph at 11°Out: 75.4 mph at -11°Out: 93.3 mph at 38°Out: 97.4 mph at 28°Out: 90.4 mph at 68°Out: 73.8 mph at 9°Out: 77.4 mph at -47°Out: 102.5 mph at 43°Out: 97.1 mph at 34°Out: 97.7 mph at 24°Out: 83.4 mph at 37°Single: 77.5 mph at -45°Out: 78.8 mph at 11°Out: 103.6 mph at -22°Out: 79.3 mph at 44°Out: 72.1 mph at 35°Out: 78.7 mph at -5°Out: 74.3 mph at -34°Out: 100.1 mph at -10°Out: 86.4 mph at -15°Single: 83.1 mph at 14°Out: 107.5 mph at 2°Single: 110.1 mph at -5°Single: 95.9 mph at -10°Out: 82.4 mph at 10°Single: 89.6 mph at 7°Single: 86.6 mph at 4°
38% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.6%56.1%+0.5
2+ total bases32.1%32.0%+0.1
Home run10.5%11.0%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Héctor Rodríguez hits
Héctor Rodríguez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .364 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.296xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .565 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 15 pitches seen.371xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .626 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 10 pitches seen.354xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .214 on 3 PA) · league .342 · 20 pitches seen.316xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .209 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 20 pitches seen.315xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .109 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 12 pitches seen.243xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .228 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.276xwOBA .393 shrunk (raw .431 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.393xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .256 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 16 pitches seen.283xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .367 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 70 pitches seen.372xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seenxwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .204 on 22 PA) · league .263 · 78 pitches seen.225xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .198 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 55 pitches seen.236
vs RHP · 373 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 63% of 8 swings · league 22%63%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 20%31%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 28%39%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 31% of 39 swings · league 32%31%Whiff 38% of 29 swings · league 49%38%
vs RHP · 373 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 62%57%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 72%87%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 90% of 20 pitches · league 76%90%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 65%68%Swings at 81% of 26 pitches · league 68%81%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 60%75%Swings at 26% of 70 pitches · league 24%26%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 34%56%Swings at 50% of 78 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 53% of 55 pitches · league 32%53%
vs RHP · 373 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Héctor Rodríguez against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.344.34015.8%14.5%17About league average vs these
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.299.29432.7%30.7%7Little history vs this shape
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.359.35518.1%16.6%23About league average vs these
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.289.28431.7%28.5%19About league average vs these
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.351.34625.9%24.1%13About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Héctor Rodríguez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.250.250.500.316.27831.2%0.0%22.2%92.2111.718.2%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1134.206.206.382.249.26323.5%0.0%19.5%88.2111.77.7%34.6%30.8%
Last 30 G2678.301.346.575.403.31721.8%5.1%23.4%87.4115.28.9%32.1%30.4%
90 days35103.253.311.474.353.28923.3%6.8%24.8%88.0115.27.0%33.8%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 14%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%50.0%–––––
Last 15 G820.200.200.200.180.16130.0%0.0%25.6%90.6110.10.0%42.9%21.4%
Last 30 G1839.179.179.256.190.16538.5%0.0%32.1%88.1110.14.2%41.7%25.0%
90 days2041.171.171.244.180.17536.6%0.0%31.8%87.4110.13.8%38.5%26.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.235.235.471.297.26235.3%0.0%25.0%92.2111.718.2%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1554.204.204.315.223.22525.9%0.0%21.7%89.0111.75.0%37.5%27.5%
Last 30 G30117.259.291.464.332.26627.4%3.4%26.2%87.6115.27.5%35.0%28.8%
90 days39144.228.271.404.304.25627.1%4.9%26.8%87.8115.26.2%35.1%28.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 97 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 14%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
Héctor Rodríguez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating9Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.298 / .260running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter91.466.5-44.159Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball97.5111.7-3.381Single
Sep 25RHPSinker83.5101.7-13.257Single
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.480.266.006Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.8107.818.815Double
Sep 24RHPCurveball78.7108.8272.030Home run
Sep 22RHPChangeup84.0100.1-1.361Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.185.827.079Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup94.074.67.273Force out
Sep 18RHPChangeup87.087.939.005Out
Sep 18RHPCutter91.989.4-23.080Force out
Sep 17LHPFastball97.488.861.016Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422001
Sep 24426101
Sep 22400002
Sep 20100000
Sep 18400002
Sep 17313001
Sep 15300000
Sep 14300001
Sep 13400001
Sep 12411000

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Héctor Rodríguez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Héctor Rodríguez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.9%41.0%
Whiff%23.1%21.3%
Contact%76.9%78.7%
Chase%44.6%39.6%
wOBA.250.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.4%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%25.5%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%13.5%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%24.2%
Avg EV88.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

99 PA
wOBA.341
xwOBA vs this mix.291against pitches like his
RV/1000.35
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%23.6%
BB%5.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Héctor Rodríguez: every projection we've made →