MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 4JJ Bleday
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedHot
.300wOBA vs RHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .328 vs league .340 (about even).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .282 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .343 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .273 vs league .284 (about even).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .334 vs league .346 (about even).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is JJ Bleday's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

JJ Bleday's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 98.1 mph at 33°Out: 97.8 mph at 34°Out: 69.5 mph at -80°Out: 91.6 mph at 52°Out: 66.0 mph at 13°Out: 101.9 mph at 15°Out: 81.8 mph at 57°Single: 66.9 mph at 9°Out: 101.0 mph at -2°Single: 81.6 mph at 10°Out: 89.4 mph at 66°Home run: 103.4 mph at 36°Out: 96.5 mph at -2°Out: 68.4 mph at 83°Single: 105.5 mph at 16°Out: 96.9 mph at 3°Out: 73.7 mph at 85°Out: 67.6 mph at 3°Single: 88.2 mph at 16°Out: 95.7 mph at 38°Out: 105.7 mph at 8°Out: 76.2 mph at 72°Single: 89.1 mph at -24°Out: 91.4 mph at 60°Out: 93.4 mph at -23°Out: 90.4 mph at 32°Out: 87.4 mph at 64°Single: 95.8 mph at 12°Double: 103.5 mph at 15°Out: 96.1 mph at 39°Single: 74.6 mph at 25°Out: 81.4 mph at 0°Out: 97.3 mph at -2°Out: 98.9 mph at 22°Out: 84.2 mph at 2°Out: 46.9 mph at 2°Out: 97.9 mph at 36°Out: 90.5 mph at 75°Out: 79.4 mph at 60°Out: 95.6 mph at 44°
43% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.5%55.2%+0.3
2+ total bases32.5%32.6%-0.2
Home run10.8%11.8%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where JJ Bleday hits
JJ Bleday · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .216 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 37 pitches seen.246xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .386 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 30 pitches seen.346xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .315 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 42 pitches seen.287xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .160 on 20 PA) · league .342 · 50 pitches seen.228xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .325 on 28 PA) · league .386 · 62 pitches seen.343xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .321 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 35 pitches seen.321xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .359 on 23 PA) · league .308 · 57 pitches seen.342xwOBA .465 shrunk (raw .546 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 48 pitches seen.465xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .240 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 50 pitches seen.264xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .412 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 118 pitches seen.396xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .312 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 45 pitches seen.289xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .290 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 128 pitches seen.280xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .392 on 26 PA) · league .274 · 158 pitches seen.355
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 30% of 20 swings · league 22%30%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 12% of 33 swings · league 19%12%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 2% of 46 swings · league 9%2%Whiff 3% of 29 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 19% of 36 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 55% of 11 swings · league 28%55%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 53% of 36 swings · league 32%53%Whiff 60% of 45 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 62%54%Swings at 83% of 30 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 79% of 42 pitches · league 66%79%Swings at 64% of 50 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 74% of 62 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 83% of 35 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 63% of 57 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 75% of 48 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 72% of 50 pitches · league 60%72%Swings at 9% of 118 pitches · league 24%9%Swings at 27% of 45 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 28% of 128 pitches · league 40%28%Swings at 28% of 158 pitches · league 32%28%
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

JJ Bleday against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.328.34011.2%14.5%44About league average vs these
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.282.29432.6%30.7%18About league average vs these
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.343.35512.6%16.6%73About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.273.28435.2%28.5%35About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.334.34626.0%24.1%25About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
JJ Bleday · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.200.200.200.180.22310.0%0.0%15.8%84.5101.00.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1228.115.179.115.146.23028.6%7.1%26.3%88.3105.70.0%38.9%38.9%
Last 30 G2767.190.284.362.285.34322.4%10.4%24.4%89.8106.111.4%45.5%45.5%
90 days73219.193.306.332.296.33222.8%13.7%23.7%88.0108.28.8%38.0%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 137 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 23%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.167.286.667.386.41214.3%14.3%0.0%90.7103.420.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1026.261.346.435.344.33019.2%11.5%20.9%86.9105.55.6%44.4%27.8%
Last 30 G2351.217.294.304.274.28919.6%9.8%23.0%83.9106.72.8%27.8%36.1%
90 days4290.200.289.338.282.28325.6%11.1%27.8%85.0106.73.5%29.8%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.188.235.375.265.30111.8%5.9%10.3%86.7103.47.1%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1554.184.259.265.242.27824.1%9.3%24.0%87.6105.72.8%41.7%33.3%
Last 30 G30118.202.288.337.280.31921.2%10.2%23.8%87.1106.77.5%37.5%41.2%
90 days78309.195.301.333.292.31823.6%12.9%24.9%87.1108.27.2%35.6%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 194 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 23%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 19%
JJ Bleday · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating68Above average
Last 100 pitches22trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.297 / .333running 37 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter91.198.133.423Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper81.697.834.502Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter88.169.5-80.221Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.191.652.009Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.666.013.243Out
Sep 24LHPSlider81.8101.915.679Out
Sep 23LHPSlider80.681.857.042Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.466.99.176Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup84.5101.0-2.324Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.181.610.458Single
Sep 22RHPFastball92.289.466.007Out
Sep 20LHPFastball95.6103.436.959Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 24400000
Sep 23100000
Sep 22422000
Sep 20414110
Sep 19411001
Sep 18411011
Sep 16411000
Sep 15300000
Sep 14300011

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
JJ Bleday bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
JJ Bleday with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.6%41.0%
Whiff%22.5%21.3%
Contact%77.5%78.7%
Chase%31.0%39.6%
wOBA.231.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.9%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.300
K%23.2%
BB%12.7%
Whiff%11.4%
Barrel%4.5%
Hard-hit%22.4%
Avg EV87.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

221 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/100-0.32
Hard-hit%23.7%
K%22.4%
BB%13.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.JJ Bleday: every projection we've made →