MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 9Oswaldo Cabrera
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.244wOBA vs RHP.264xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Oswaldo Cabrera: wOBA .332 vs league .340 (about even).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Oswaldo Cabrera: wOBA .286 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Oswaldo Cabrera: wOBA .347 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Oswaldo Cabrera: wOBA .276 vs league .284 (about even).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Oswaldo Cabrera: wOBA .338 vs league .346 (about even).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Oswaldo Cabrera's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Oswaldo Cabrera's last 13 balls in playHit (2)Out (11)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 91.2 mph at 1°Out: 88.6 mph at -15°Out: 84.2 mph at 43°Double: 51.8 mph at 5°Out: 61.1 mph at -55°Out: 89.7 mph at -14°Out: 98.3 mph at 7°Out: 67.9 mph at -15°Out: 47.0 mph at -68°Out: 96.4 mph at 17°Out: 87.0 mph at -23°Out: 98.4 mph at -13°Out: 29.1 mph at -16°
23% hit 95+ mph8% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.6%52.4%+0.2
2+ total bases24.2%24.3%-0.1
Home run5.0%5.6%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Oswaldo Cabrera hits
Oswaldo Cabrera · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .307 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .307 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .362 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 7 pitches seen.344xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .382 on 4 PA) · league .386 · 7 pitches seen.385xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .321 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .063 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 2 pitches seen.289xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .020 on 2 PA) · league .351 · 4 pitches seen.304xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .292 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .377 · 7 pitches seen.348xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .138 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 6 pitches seen.245xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 6 pitches seen.235
vs RHP · 45 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 22%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 20%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 28%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 24%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 49%67%
vs RHP · 45 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 62%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 72%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 66%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 70%86%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 65%50%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 60%100%Swings at 14% of 7 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 34%0%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 32%50%
vs RHP · 45 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Oswaldo Cabrera against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.332.34012.7%14.5%2Little history vs this shape
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.286.29429.9%30.7%3Little history vs this shape
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.347.35514.5%16.6%3Little history vs this shape
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.276.28425.8%28.5%2Little history vs this shape
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.338.34623.4%24.1%2Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Oswaldo Cabrera · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.100.100.100.110.20336.4%0.0%20.0%78.698.30.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 15 G515.077.077.077.100.19033.3%0.0%16.0%76.598.40.0%30.0%10.0%
Last 30 G515.077.077.077.100.19033.3%0.0%16.0%76.598.40.0%30.0%10.0%
90 days515.077.077.077.100.19033.3%0.0%16.0%76.598.40.0%30.0%10.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 90%Line drive 10%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.125.125.250.179.03250.0%0.0%28.0%75.289.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G38.125.125.250.179.03250.0%0.0%28.0%75.289.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G38.125.125.250.179.03250.0%0.0%28.0%75.289.70.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days38.125.125.250.179.03250.0%0.0%28.0%75.289.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 0%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.111.111.167.138.13342.1%0.0%25.0%77.698.30.0%20.0%10.0%
Last 15 G623.095.095.143.128.13539.1%0.0%22.0%76.298.40.0%23.1%7.7%
Last 30 G623.095.095.143.128.13539.1%0.0%22.0%76.298.40.0%23.1%7.7%
90 days623.095.095.143.128.13539.1%0.0%22.0%76.298.40.0%23.1%7.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 13 balls in play
Ground 85%Line drive 8%Fly ball 8%Pop-up 0%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.073 / .149running 76 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit1/5
2+ total bases1/5
Home run0/5

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.491.21.362Single
Sep 25RHPSlider72.988.6-15.103Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.284.243.017Out
Sep 23LHPSlider82.351.85.091Double
Sep 23RHPChangeup91.561.1-55.276Out
Sep 20LHPSinker91.189.7-14.116Out
Jul 1RHPFastball96.098.37.547Out
Jul 1RHPChangeup88.567.9-15.040Out
Jul 1RHPFastball96.947.0-68–Sac bunt
Jun 29RHPFastball97.896.417.504Out
Jun 28RHPCutter89.387.0-23.063Out
Jun 28RHPSinker98.898.4-13.176Force out
Last 6 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 23512002
Sep 20300002
Jul 1400001
Jun 29300002
Jun 28400001

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Oswaldo Cabrera bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Oswaldo Cabrera with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.0%41.0%
Whiff%21.8%21.3%
Contact%78.2%78.7%
Chase%38.6%39.6%
wOBA.239.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.1%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.312
K%23.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%1.4%
Hard-hit%23.8%
Avg EV86.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

12 PA
wOBA.244
xwOBA vs this mix.264against pitches like his
RV/100-1.82
Hard-hit%24.5%
K%27.2%
BB%5.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Oswaldo Cabrera: every projection we've made →