MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · KC · batting 6Salvador Perez
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.330wOBA vs RHP.346xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CLEGavin Williams
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Up
7.2projected K39%K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Gavin Williams's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 32% usage, 87.8 mph, -12.2″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Salvador Perez: wOBA .284 vs league .280 (about even).Sweeper 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 98.4 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Salvador Perez: wOBA .348 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 31%Curveball: 22% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.6″ arm side, -15.1″ rise. Salvador Perez: wOBA .274 vs league .270 (about even).Curveball 22%Sinker: 13% usage, 97.9 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Salvador Perez: wOBA .346 vs league .342 (about even).Sinker 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Salvador Perez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Salvador Perez's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 89.7 mph at 46°Home run: 107.3 mph at 28°Out: 91.8 mph at -22°Out: 74.5 mph at 14°Out: 83.4 mph at -21°Home run: 110.1 mph at 20°Single: 95.7 mph at 8°Out: 106.5 mph at 23°Out: 66.1 mph at -36°Single: 78.5 mph at 20°Out: 91.1 mph at 38°Out: 109.5 mph at -1°Single: 103.8 mph at 1°Single: 91.3 mph at 15°Out: 81.0 mph at 73°Out: 100.0 mph at 39°Out: 62.9 mph at -15°Out: 104.0 mph at 21°Out: 108.6 mph at 7°Out: 87.5 mph at 26°Out: 59.9 mph at -39°Out: 103.2 mph at 8°Out: 99.0 mph at -19°Single: 73.8 mph at 32°Out: 101.3 mph at 54°Out: 94.0 mph at 63°Out: 91.3 mph at -6°Single: 108.1 mph at 11°Out: 76.6 mph at 39°Out: 94.2 mph at -7°Out: 98.3 mph at 9°Out: 82.7 mph at -36°Single: 103.9 mph at 0°Single: 86.9 mph at 13°Out: 101.3 mph at 0°Out: 87.2 mph at 34°Out: 98.0 mph at 48°Out: 101.0 mph at 36°Out: 90.5 mph at 63°Out: 97.5 mph at 7°
48% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.5%68.1%-4.6
2+ total bases37.3%41.1%-3.8
Home run13.6%15.5%-1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.5
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.2
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Salvador Perez hits
Salvador Perez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .472 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 25 pitches seen.359xwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .476 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 38 pitches seen.392xwOBA .455 shrunk (raw .744 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 26 pitches seen.455xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .473 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 37 pitches seen.415xwOBA .498 shrunk (raw .690 on 7 PA) · league .386 · 30 pitches seen.498xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .278 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 48 pitches seen.299xwOBA .356 shrunk (raw .421 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 23 pitches seen.356xwOBA .501 shrunk (raw .650 on 12 PA) · league .351 · 34 pitches seen.501xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .394 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 44 pitches seen.350xwOBA .422 shrunk (raw .451 on 19 PA) · league .377 · 80 pitches seen.422xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .147 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 73 pitches seen.223xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .164 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 44 pitches seen.227xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .197 on 70 PA) · league .274 · 299 pitches seen.208
vs RHP · 801 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 20%4%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 0% of 25 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 13%5%Whiff 18% of 33 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 28%26%Whiff 28% of 36 swings · league 24%28%Whiff 24% of 21 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 48% of 140 swings · league 49%48%
vs RHP · 801 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 25 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 68% of 38 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 73% of 26 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 68% of 37 pitches · league 70%68%Swings at 73% of 30 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 65% of 48 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 74% of 23 pitches · league 65%74%Swings at 65% of 34 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 75% of 44 pitches · league 60%75%Swings at 29% of 80 pitches · league 24%29%Swings at 49% of 73 pitches · league 34%49%Swings at 48% of 44 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 47% of 299 pitches · league 32%47%
vs RHP · 801 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Salvador Perez against each of Gavin Williams's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper32%87.8-12″ / -1″.284.28039.2%37.0%41About league average vs these
Fastball31%98.4+10″ / +15″.348.34317.4%17.9%41About league average vs these
Curveball22%82.4-11″ / -15″.274.27033.7%31.0%16About league average vs these
Sinker13%97.9+15″ / +9″.346.34211.5%11.9%33About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Salvador Perez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G415.385.467.846.540.50820.0%13.3%23.1%93.1110.120.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1138.222.263.389.284.37618.4%5.3%28.2%92.1110.110.3%51.7%37.9%
Last 30 G2689.274.315.488.360.39616.9%4.5%26.2%90.4111.314.7%48.5%41.2%
90 days64206.250.302.452.337.36118.0%4.9%25.3%89.0111.311.2%42.8%39.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.200.180.52420.0%0.0%15.4%92.0106.525.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1017.200.294.200.238.39117.6%11.8%20.6%93.7108.68.3%41.7%33.3%
Last 30 G1831.241.290.310.270.36622.6%6.5%20.0%90.9108.69.1%40.9%36.4%
90 days4188.284.322.407.334.35320.5%3.4%20.5%91.2109.210.9%50.0%40.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 64 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 27%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.333.400.667.450.51220.0%10.0%21.2%92.8110.121.4%42.9%50.0%
Last 15 G1555.216.273.333.270.38118.2%7.3%26.1%92.5110.19.8%48.8%36.6%
Last 30 G30120.265.308.442.337.38818.3%5.0%24.5%90.5111.313.3%46.7%40.0%
90 days72294.260.308.439.336.35918.7%4.4%23.9%89.6111.311.1%44.9%39.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 216 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 22%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 7%
Salvador Perez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.330 / .369running 39 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper86.989.746.004Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.5107.3281.918Home run
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.091.8-22.097Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.374.514.406Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.483.4-21.049Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.1110.1201.421Home run
Sep 23RHPSinker96.095.78.544Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper83.6106.5231.588Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.566.1-36.052Out
Sep 22LHPCutter91.778.520.898Single
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.391.138.036Out
Sep 20RHPSinker97.4109.5-1.466Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25514110
Sep 24414111
Sep 23411001
Sep 22311001
Sep 20422001
Sep 19100001
Sep 18400002
Sep 17300000
Sep 16500001
Sep 15111000

Two strikes

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%43%44.3%29.2%19.3%
Fastball31%33%30.2%25.9%18.0%
Curveball22%19%34.6%23.7%20.0%
Sinker13%4%7.1%22.7%17.0%
Cutter2%1%40.0%33.3%17.9%
Salvador Perez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Salvador Perez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.2%42.4%
Whiff%20.4%22.2%
Contact%79.6%77.8%
Chase%44.3%39.9%
wOBA.248.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.8%27.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.328
K%19.3%
BB%4.3%
Whiff%12.6%
Barrel%8.1%
Hard-hit%32.9%
Avg EV89.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

205 PA
wOBA.330
xwOBA vs this mix.346against pitches like his
RV/1000.19
Hard-hit%31.3%
K%18.7%
BB%4.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC
7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 7.4%7%≤34 strikeouts: 8.5%9%45 strikeouts: 12.0%12%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 13.2%13%89+ strikeouts: 29.7%30%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%39.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%16.9%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff110
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper32%12487.924.6%
Fastball31%11198.314.8%
Curveball22%9882.513.7%
Sinker13%9497.98.6%
Cutter2%10993.215.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208938%24%21%.148
Sep 1411329%19%13%.296
Sep 69946%16%21%.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Salvador Perez: every projection we've made →