MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PIT · batting 9Jake Mangum
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedHot
.313wOBA vs RHP.284xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · DETJackson Jobe
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Trending Up
5.3projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jackson Jobe's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 97.6 mph, +7.1″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .335 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 32%Slider: 25% usage, 89.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .312 vs league .319 (about even).Slider 25%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.9 mph, +14.6″ arm side, +6.9″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .344 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 18%Curveball: 13% usage, 85.4 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.8″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .286 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 13%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.3 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Jake Mangum: wOBA .287 vs league .295 (about even).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Mangum's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.9%55.6%-0.7
2+ total bases25.6%25.9%-0.3
Home run5.3%5.0%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Mangum against each of Jackson Jobe's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%97.6+7″ / +16″.335.34321.5%18.3%42About league average vs these
Slider25%89.6-6″ / +1″.312.31922.1%28.2%28About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker18%95.9+15″ / +7″.344.35114.4%12.5%34About league average vs these
Curveball13%85.4-6″ / -11″.286.29425.2%31.7%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup10%86.3+15″ / +7″.287.29523.4%26.6%25About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating32Below average
Last 100 pitches71trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.311 / .298results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPwith two strikes
Jackson Jobe with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball32%31%16.7%20.0%18.0%
Curveball13%24%30.8%27.7%20.0%
Slider25%20%25.0%22.5%21.1%
Changeup10%16%26.3%15.6%18.6%
Sinker18%8%0.0%20.0%17.0%
Cutter2%2%33.3%33.3%17.9%
Jake Mangum bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Mangum with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.2%41.0%
Whiff%18.0%21.3%
Contact%82.0%78.7%
Chase%44.6%39.6%
wOBA.232.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.3%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.320
K%19.9%
BB%5.4%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%2.1%
Hard-hit%21.1%
Avg EV85.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

189 PA
wOBA.313
xwOBA vs this mix.284against pitches like his
RV/100-0.16
Hard-hit%21.1%
K%20.4%
BB%5.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jackson JobeRHP · DET vs PIT
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.7%23%≤34 strikeouts: 16.3%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.6%12%78 strikeouts: 7.7%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.1%9%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.9%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%11497.66.8%
Slider25%11589.712.9%
Sinker18%9495.95.6%
Curveball13%9784.712.6%
Changeup10%8586.312.9%
Cutter2%11793.716.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199638%15%21%.277
Sep 138733%16%13%.226
Sep 69333%8%10%.340

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Mangum: every projection we've made →