MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · DET · batting 8Spencer Torkelson
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.364wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · PITBubba Chandler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 105Trending Down
5.0projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bubba Chandler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 98.2 mph, +10.2″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .360 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Fastball 47%Slider: 25% usage, 92.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .334 vs league .317 (hitter's edge).Slider 25%Changeup: 11% usage, 91.1 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .363 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Sinker: 10% usage, 97.6 mph, +14.9″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .362 vs league .345 (hitter's edge).Sinker 10%Curveball: 6% usage, 87.3 mph, -1.3″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Spencer Torkelson: wOBA .312 vs league .295 (hitter's edge).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Spencer Torkelson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Spencer Torkelson's last 40 balls in playHit (20)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Triple: 101.5 mph at 13°Home run: 105.2 mph at 35°Double: 84.2 mph at 52°Home run: 97.1 mph at 36°Out: 87.2 mph at -4°Double: 92.6 mph at 23°Out: 101.7 mph at 52°Single: 75.4 mph at 41°Out: 73.5 mph at 8°Single: 103.2 mph at 8°Out: 93.3 mph at 12°Single: 106.0 mph at 19°Single: 97.2 mph at 16°Double: 103.9 mph at 22°Home run: 102.7 mph at 38°Double: 97.3 mph at 2°Single: 52.7 mph at -67°Home run: 102.9 mph at 38°Out: 80.9 mph at 46°Out: 95.4 mph at 36°Single: 103.8 mph at 13°Out: 93.1 mph at 73°Out: 94.9 mph at 50°Out: 100.9 mph at 37°Single: 71.5 mph at 39°Out: 95.3 mph at -11°Out: 68.5 mph at 8°Out: 94.7 mph at 55°Out: 78.6 mph at 45°Out: 71.9 mph at -14°Out: 86.2 mph at -8°Single: 103.8 mph at 8°Single: 105.1 mph at 9°Out: 91.6 mph at 9°Home run: 101.9 mph at 35°Out: 94.5 mph at -12°Home run: 106.5 mph at 26°Out: 95.7 mph at 22°Out: 88.0 mph at 31°Out: 96.9 mph at 22°
53% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.0%52.8%+0.2
2+ total bases29.9%30.2%-0.3
Home run12.6%13.3%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Spencer Torkelson hits
Spencer Torkelson · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .152 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.222xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .238 on 14 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.270xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .482 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 28 pitches seen.318xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .203 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.265xwOBA .521 shrunk (raw .577 on 29 PA) · league .386 · 63 pitches seen.521xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .266 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 52 pitches seen.290xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .375 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.325xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .424 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 46 pitches seen.389xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .266 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 56 pitches seen.278xwOBA .472 shrunk (raw .559 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 78 pitches seen.472xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .222 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 57 pitches seen.250xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .291 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 61 pitches seen.274xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .242 on 37 PA) · league .274 · 212 pitches seen.250
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 18 swings · league 22%17%Whiff 29% of 24 swings · league 20%29%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 19%8%Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 10%16%Whiff 4% of 47 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 28% of 36 swings · league 11%28%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 14%21%Whiff 21% of 28 swings · league 13%21%Whiff 41% of 29 swings · league 17%41%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 24%42%Whiff 57% of 21 swings · league 32%57%Whiff 83% of 53 swings · league 49%83%
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 28 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 77% of 31 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 66%43%Swings at 76% of 33 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 75% of 63 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 69% of 52 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 65%82%Swings at 61% of 46 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 52% of 56 pitches · league 60%52%Swings at 12% of 78 pitches · league 24%12%Swings at 21% of 57 pitches · league 34%21%Swings at 34% of 61 pitches · league 40%34%Swings at 25% of 212 pitches · league 32%25%
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Spencer Torkelson against each of Bubba Chandler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%98.2+10″ / +17″.360.34326.2%19.0%44About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider25%92.0-1″ / +5″.334.31737.9%25.5%36About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup11%91.1+16″ / +6″.363.34619.9%13.3%43About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker10%97.6+15″ / +12″.362.34517.6%12.3%51About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball6%87.3-1″ / -2″.312.29545.1%31.7%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Spencer Torkelson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.455.6001.364.773.38533.3%13.3%44.0%94.6105.216.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1441.433.5851.033.649.41724.4%22.0%36.4%92.2105.210.0%55.0%35.0%
Last 30 G2868.340.485.830.541.36133.8%16.2%41.6%92.0106.513.3%56.7%36.7%
90 days71186.259.366.544.392.33430.1%12.4%34.1%90.0106.514.6%45.6%33.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 103 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.400.000.280.27960.0%40.0%62.5%–––––
Last 15 G1015.250.400.250.320.30546.7%20.0%41.7%94.9106.020.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2138.171.237.200.207.21436.8%7.9%27.3%89.6106.04.8%38.1%47.6%
90 days57101.258.337.360.313.27730.7%10.9%26.6%87.7107.55.1%32.2%44.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 17%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.357.5501.071.650.35940.0%20.0%48.5%94.6105.216.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1556.381.536.810.561.38730.4%21.4%37.8%92.7106.012.0%56.0%36.0%
Last 30 G30106.273.396.580.421.30934.9%13.2%36.3%91.0106.59.8%49.0%41.2%
90 days75287.259.355.478.364.31430.3%11.8%31.5%89.2107.511.1%40.7%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 19%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 15%
Spencer Torkelson · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating50Average
Last 100 pitches29trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.352 / .314running 37 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.5101.513.892Triple
Sep 25RHPFastball97.7105.2351.362Home run
Sep 25RHPFastball97.584.252.020Double
Sep 21RHPFastball98.697.136.261Home run
Sep 21RHPSlider86.287.2-4.172Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball95.392.623.220Double
Sep 19RHPSlider88.3101.752.028Out
Sep 18RHPSinker96.875.441.203Single
Sep 18RHPSinker95.973.58.236Out
Sep 18LHPFastball91.4103.28.666Single
Sep 17RHPSweeper82.593.312.836Out
Sep 17LHPFastball89.5106.019.835Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25439101
Sep 23400004
Sep 22400030
Sep 21414102
Sep 20412011
Sep 19200001
Sep 18522011
Sep 17411011
Sep 16411021
Sep 15526112

Two strikes

Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Bubba Chandler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball47%48%19.5%18.1%18.0%
Slider25%28%18.3%13.8%21.1%
Changeup11%13%16.7%14.0%18.6%
Curveball6%6%23.1%16.0%20.0%
Sinker10%5%11.1%26.3%17.0%
Sweeper1%1%–0.0%19.3%
Spencer Torkelson bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Spencer Torkelson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.0%42.4%
Whiff%28.8%22.2%
Contact%71.2%77.8%
Chase%33.3%39.9%
wOBA.233.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.0%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.347
K%29.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%12.9%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%22.9%
Avg EV88.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

186 PA
wOBA.364
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/1000.82
Hard-hit%24.2%
K%29.4%
BB%11.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT vs DET
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.3 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.2%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.6%18%45 strikeouts: 17.5%18%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 10.2%10%78 strikeouts: 6.4%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.7%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.2%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.0%
Velo95.1
BTB Stuff105
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%11098.29.6%
Slider25%10892.28.1%
Changeup11%8790.97.0%
Sinker10%9897.52.4%
Curveball6%9587.36.3%
Sweeper1%10387.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199029%10%29%.462
Sep 139013%3%30%.380
Sep 89538%15%29%.240

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Spencer Torkelson: every projection we've made →