MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.287wOBA vs RHP.304xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .335 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .275 vs league .288 (about even).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .292 vs league .305 (about even).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .345 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .273 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.8 mph at -38°Out: 102.5 mph at 18°Out: 56.7 mph at 58°Double: 103.6 mph at 18°Out: 76.4 mph at -24°Single: 97.1 mph at -23°Out: 77.5 mph at 42°Single: 103.8 mph at -15°Out: 93.9 mph at 34°Out: 106.4 mph at -9°Out: 67.6 mph at -28°Single: 103.2 mph at 9°Out: 100.5 mph at 16°Single: 86.9 mph at 10°Out: 96.1 mph at -18°Out: 104.1 mph at 22°Out: 76.5 mph at 41°Out: 91.4 mph at -34°Out: 78.0 mph at -28°Out: 82.3 mph at -44°Out: 99.9 mph at 27°Home run: 94.0 mph at 26°Double: 105.3 mph at 24°Single: 115.5 mph at 1°Single: 82.3 mph at 17°Out: 54.4 mph at -35°Double: 100.1 mph at 20°Out: 76.4 mph at -45°Single: 68.1 mph at -53°Out: 109.6 mph at -7°Out: 76.0 mph at -14°Out: 95.7 mph at 27°Single: 89.4 mph at -1°Out: 105.0 mph at 20°Single: 97.3 mph at 10°Single: 68.4 mph at 29°Out: 95.4 mph at -9°Out: 110.6 mph at -12°Out: 108.7 mph at -25°Out: 110.1 mph at 3°
53% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.9%68.0%+1.9
2+ total bases41.4%39.5%+1.9
Home run10.4%9.5%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.335.3478.5%10.9%52About league average vs these
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.275.28834.2%34.6%20About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.292.30524.0%25.3%23About league average vs these
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.345.35812.6%15.8%53About league average vs these
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.273.28623.5%23.7%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.357.400.429.370.2646.7%6.7%7.1%89.8106.40.0%46.2%30.8%
Last 15 G1549.250.327.295.288.30818.4%8.2%28.6%93.4115.58.6%54.3%28.6%
Last 30 G3089.247.303.296.273.30912.4%6.7%20.5%92.8116.34.2%53.5%23.9%
90 days64194.228.278.328.280.30017.0%6.2%21.1%91.5116.36.8%48.6%27.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.333.000.233.4610.0%33.3%33.3%98.3100.50.0%100.0%50.0%
Last 15 G714.333.429.667.461.47914.3%14.3%16.7%90.2109.610.0%60.0%60.0%
Last 30 G1537.324.378.559.403.3958.1%8.1%12.7%89.7110.29.7%38.7%35.5%
90 days3376.299.382.448.367.36913.2%11.8%13.0%91.6111.17.0%42.1%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.312.389.375.347.2975.6%11.1%11.8%90.9106.40.0%53.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1563.268.349.375.326.34617.5%9.5%25.9%92.7115.58.9%55.6%35.6%
Last 30 G30126.270.325.374.311.33411.1%7.1%18.2%91.9116.35.9%49.0%27.5%
90 days64270.247.307.360.304.31915.9%7.8%18.7%91.5116.36.8%46.8%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 205 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 20%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches75steady
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .337running 27 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSinker93.591.8-38.035Double play
Sep 23RHPSinker94.1102.518.590Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper87.056.758.003Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper73.4103.618.608Double
Sep 20RHPSlider92.276.4-24.031Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.797.1-23.098Single
Sep 19RHPCurveball77.277.542.100Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper86.3103.8-15.218Single
Sep 19RHPFastball91.893.934.087Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.8106.4-9.273Out
Sep 18RHPSweeper77.467.6-28.042Out
Sep 18RHPSinker88.2103.29.684Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23412000
Sep 20211000
Sep 19411010
Sep 18411001
Sep 16411010
Sep 15400010
Sep 14500011
Sep 13548101
Sep 12512002
Sep 11511012

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.9%42.4%
Whiff%24.2%22.2%
Contact%75.8%77.8%
Chase%40.7%39.8%
wOBA.245.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.1%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.333
K%16.0%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%8.9%
Barrel%5.9%
Hard-hit%34.5%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

190 PA
wOBA.287
xwOBA vs this mix.304against pitches like his
RV/100-0.88
Hard-hit%35.1%
K%17.4%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: every projection we've made →