MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 8Colson Montgomery
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.321wOBA vs LHP.301xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.7trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .370 vs league .366 (about even).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .357 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Colson Montgomery's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Colson Montgomery's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.9 mph at 53°Out: 97.5 mph at 41°Out: 91.8 mph at 48°Out: 55.0 mph at -21°Out: 78.8 mph at -2°Out: 79.0 mph at 32°Out: 73.9 mph at 43°Out: 85.0 mph at 36°Single: 105.7 mph at 11°Double: 103.0 mph at 10°Single: 65.5 mph at 37°Out: 85.9 mph at 26°Out: 98.2 mph at -7°Out: 94.6 mph at 45°Out: 103.0 mph at 8°Out: 58.9 mph at 8°Out: 94.4 mph at 58°Double: 110.7 mph at 19°Out: 74.6 mph at 66°Out: 84.9 mph at 67°Out: 94.7 mph at 57°Out: 106.3 mph at -3°Out: 39.6 mph at 33°Home run: 112.3 mph at 24°Out: 96.8 mph at 26°Home run: 108.6 mph at 35°Out: 74.4 mph at 79°Out: 78.1 mph at 3°Out: 91.5 mph at -4°Out: 62.8 mph at -15°Out: 61.6 mph at 21°Out: 70.2 mph at 57°Single: 102.4 mph at 14°Double: 86.3 mph at 16°Double: 95.6 mph at 17°Home run: 115.4 mph at 19°Out: 73.9 mph at 10°Out: 89.0 mph at 30°Out: 79.9 mph at 65°Out: 61.4 mph at -32°
33% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.5%47.3%+3.2
2+ total bases31.9%29.6%+2.3
Home run14.2%13.3%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Colson Montgomery against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.370.36621.6%19.5%18About league average vs these
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.357.35312.0%10.7%32About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Colson Montgomery · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.000.000.000.000.04340.0%0.0%14.3%72.985.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1119.125.263.188.271.21047.4%5.3%50.0%82.8103.00.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 30 G2032.179.281.429.336.34637.5%6.2%37.7%89.6115.418.8%50.0%31.2%
90 days5197.253.330.402.334.31127.8%8.2%26.8%84.3115.48.3%35.0%31.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 22%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.071.188.071.144.17450.0%12.5%25.0%89.3105.70.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1439.061.205.091.163.21443.6%12.8%34.1%86.8110.76.2%31.2%37.5%
Last 30 G2891.115.242.269.247.24947.3%12.1%33.9%86.2112.311.4%34.3%42.9%
90 days69212.147.222.304.251.24444.8%7.5%36.2%88.5113.610.3%36.1%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 97 balls in play
Ground 22%Line drive 23%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 30%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.053.143.053.110.14347.6%9.5%23.1%83.8105.70.0%22.2%22.2%
Last 15 G1558.082.224.122.198.21344.8%10.3%38.3%85.6110.74.3%30.4%30.4%
Last 30 G30123.132.252.311.270.27544.7%10.6%34.8%87.3115.413.7%39.2%39.2%
90 days73309.180.256.335.278.26539.5%7.8%33.4%86.9115.49.6%35.7%33.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 157 balls in play
Ground 27%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 27%
Colson Montgomery · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating14Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.267 / .271results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball90.487.953.008Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.397.541.166Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup91.191.848.000Out
Sep 23LHPSinker91.055.0-21.077Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.178.8-2.128Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.679.032.044Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.773.943.226Out
Sep 20LHPSweeper79.585.036.011Out
Sep 20RHPSlider82.4105.711.939Single
Sep 18LHPFastball93.6103.010.812Double
Sep 18LHPSweeper80.465.537.551Single
Sep 15RHPChangeup79.985.926.069Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400001
Sep 23400003
Sep 22500003
Sep 20511020
Sep 19300003
Sep 18423002
Sep 16200001
Sep 15200001
Sep 14500003
Sep 13400011

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Colson Montgomery bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Colson Montgomery with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.9%44.1%
Whiff%25.1%22.7%
Contact%74.9%77.3%
Chase%34.8%38.1%
wOBA.247.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.3%14.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.301
K%37.8%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%16.0%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%19.6%
Avg EV87.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

96 PA
wOBA.321
xwOBA vs this mix.301against pitches like his
RV/100-0.02
Hard-hit%21.9%
K%28.9%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Colson Montgomery: every projection we've made →