MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 6Kyle Karros
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.345wOBA vs RHP.331xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CWSDavis Martin
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
2.9projected K13%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Davis Martin's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 27% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.2″ arm side, +13.2″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .357 vs league .350 (about even).Fastball 27%Sinker: 20% usage, 92.6 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .360 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 20%Curveball: 17% usage, 81.3 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -9.0″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .280 vs league .274 (about even).Curveball 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, +12.3″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .341 vs league .334 (about even).Changeup 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.8 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .313 vs league .306 (about even).Cutter 12%Slider: 10% usage, 86.7 mph, -5.0″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .294 vs league .288 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Karros's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Karros's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 107.8 mph at 22°Single: 76.6 mph at 26°Out: 94.2 mph at 29°Out: 97.3 mph at -19°Out: 88.5 mph at 41°Single: 100.7 mph at -13°Out: 89.8 mph at 49°Out: 104.9 mph at -3°Out: 81.4 mph at 31°Out: 91.6 mph at -33°Single: 110.7 mph at 8°Out: 106.5 mph at 16°Out: 108.0 mph at -9°Single: 88.3 mph at 21°Out: 100.3 mph at -16°Out: 80.7 mph at 39°Home run: 101.2 mph at 30°Out: 91.9 mph at -2°Out: 92.3 mph at 5°Out: 94.2 mph at -6°Out: 80.8 mph at 13°Single: 91.7 mph at 5°Out: 98.6 mph at 9°Out: 55.2 mph at -29°Out: 93.6 mph at 35°Double: 102.0 mph at 25°Out: 108.3 mph at -6°Single: 100.9 mph at -4°Out: 82.5 mph at 31°Single: 81.6 mph at 4°Out: 65.9 mph at 68°Out: 85.3 mph at -3°Out: 73.0 mph at -20°Out: 101.0 mph at 11°Out: 92.8 mph at -27°Home run: 109.1 mph at 27°Out: 89.1 mph at 57°Triple: 103.7 mph at 21°Out: 72.9 mph at -44°Out: 69.8 mph at 18°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.2%59.7%+2.5
2+ total bases34.7%32.9%+1.8
Home run10.2%9.9%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Karros against each of Davis Martin's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball27%93.4+5″ / +13″.357.35012.8%18.8%43About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker20%92.6+14″ / +7″.360.3537.4%11.0%47About league average vs these
Curveball17%81.3-14″ / -9″.280.27432.4%28.4%6Little history vs this shape
Changeup14%89.6+12″ / +1″.341.33415.2%16.1%28About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.8-1″ / +7″.313.30618.8%26.5%25About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider10%86.7-5″ / +1″.294.28835.9%31.6%26About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Karros · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.125.263.125.205.25926.3%15.8%33.3%97.6110.70.0%54.5%36.4%
Last 15 G1548.186.271.256.245.28422.9%8.3%26.0%90.2110.76.2%37.5%34.4%
Last 30 G2990.231.322.282.284.30822.2%10.0%18.1%90.1110.75.2%37.9%34.5%
90 days46140.254.343.443.353.33920.7%10.0%21.2%91.1110.78.6%40.9%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 93 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 16%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G13.667.6671.667.967.70733.3%0.0%40.0%92.2107.850.0%50.0%100.0%
Last 15 G614.308.3571.000.543.50921.4%7.1%30.0%91.9109.130.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 30 G1535.312.371.719.453.40714.3%5.7%20.0%86.5109.114.8%25.9%63.0%
90 days3069.281.406.544.413.38817.4%13.0%22.7%87.0109.113.3%31.1%55.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 27%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.211.318.368.309.32027.3%13.6%34.4%96.8110.77.7%53.8%46.2%
Last 15 G1562.214.290.429.312.33522.6%8.1%26.8%90.6110.711.9%38.1%40.5%
Last 30 G30125.255.336.409.332.33620.0%8.8%18.6%89.0110.78.2%34.1%43.5%
90 days50209.263.364.475.372.35519.6%11.0%21.7%89.7110.710.1%37.7%42.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 138 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 20%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 9%
Kyle Karros · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches76trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.367 / .358results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball90.2107.8221.608Home run
Sep 24LHPFastball91.176.626.513Single
Sep 24RHPSlider88.494.229.201Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.397.3-19.125Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.688.541.004Out
Sep 23RHPSinker96.9100.7-13.181Single
Sep 22RHPCutter90.789.849.008Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.1104.9-3.382Force out
Sep 19RHPSlider87.581.431.093Out
Sep 19RHPSinker97.391.6-33.047Force out
Sep 18RHPSinker95.3110.78.703Single
Sep 18RHPFastball97.5106.516.737Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24525101
Sep 23411011
Sep 22400002
Sep 19400020
Sep 18511002
Sep 17411001
Sep 16414110
Sep 15511010
Sep 14523000
Sep 12511001

Two strikes

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball27%29%16.7%12.2%18.0%
Curveball17%19%32.0%30.6%20.1%
Slider10%17%11.1%9.3%21.0%
Sinker20%16%0.0%2.4%16.9%
Changeup14%10%0.0%4.0%18.6%
Cutter12%8%7.1%4.8%17.9%
Kyle Karros bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Karros with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.2%42.4%
Whiff%22.0%22.2%
Contact%78.0%77.8%
Chase%37.5%39.8%
wOBA.243.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.7%20.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.328
K%20.6%
BB%10.3%
Whiff%10.2%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%23.8%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

137 PA
wOBA.345
xwOBA vs this mix.331against pitches like his
RV/1000.54
Hard-hit%26.0%
K%20.6%
BB%10.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL
2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 66.7%67%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 9.5%10%56 strikeouts: 4.6%5%67 strikeouts: 2.0%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.3%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff93
Location96
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball27%8593.46.9%
Sinker20%8092.60.0%
Curveball17%9781.312.5%
Changeup14%10389.64.5%
Cutter12%11089.89.0%
Slider10%9886.610.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207033%16%22%.267
Sep 15710%1%45%.270
Sep 9685%6%47%.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Karros: every projection we've made →