MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 1Sam Antonacci
Bats leftTalent grade BContactHot
.330wOBA vs LHP.317xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .370 vs league .366 (about even).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .357 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sam Antonacci's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sam Antonacci's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.8 mph at 35°Single: 100.6 mph at 13°Out: 77.1 mph at -12°Single: 95.3 mph at -2°Out: 62.9 mph at 39°Single: 101.9 mph at 13°Out: 99.2 mph at 28°Out: 101.1 mph at -6°Out: 87.4 mph at 25°Double: 96.3 mph at 7°Out: 94.4 mph at 0°Out: 90.8 mph at 33°Single: 101.8 mph at 10°Out: 94.8 mph at 36°Out: 84.6 mph at -7°Out: 81.3 mph at -13°Out: 97.2 mph at -7°Out: 63.7 mph at -84°Out: 96.1 mph at 40°Out: 99.5 mph at 25°Single: 89.7 mph at 6°Single: 89.3 mph at 18°Out: 58.7 mph at 26°Out: 98.1 mph at 16°Out: 90.2 mph at -24°Single: 96.5 mph at -7°Triple: 100.2 mph at 13°Out: 92.2 mph at -24°Out: 102.2 mph at 7°Out: 96.7 mph at 26°Single: 92.9 mph at 13°Out: 89.9 mph at 3°Out: 95.8 mph at -19°Single: 72.1 mph at 37°Single: 67.4 mph at 29°Out: 74.7 mph at 88°Out: 84.9 mph at 27°Single: 103.0 mph at 1°Out: 95.6 mph at 22°Out: 62.0 mph at 25°
45% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.6%63.5%+2.1
2+ total bases38.0%36.1%+1.8
Home run8.1%7.8%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Sam Antonacci against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.370.36615.1%19.5%17About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.357.3538.0%10.7%17About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sam Antonacci · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.1600.0%0.0%25.0%96.4101.10.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G611.111.273.111.209.31518.2%0.0%15.8%85.0101.10.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 30 G1116.231.375.231.300.29918.8%6.2%13.0%81.6101.10.0%30.0%40.0%
90 days3658.286.397.327.338.31819.0%6.9%13.8%81.0102.40.0%23.7%44.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.312.368.375.329.3920.0%5.3%0.0%89.7101.95.9%47.1%29.4%
Last 15 G1545.381.400.524.398.3744.4%2.2%5.5%89.5103.04.9%39.0%36.6%
Last 30 G30100.287.370.402.353.34910.0%9.0%10.4%88.3103.03.8%30.8%39.7%
90 days73238.244.329.378.324.31913.4%8.4%10.8%87.9107.33.4%31.8%35.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 179 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 20%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.278.333.333.298.3700.0%4.8%3.6%90.4101.95.3%47.4%26.3%
Last 15 G1556.333.375.451.361.3637.1%1.8%7.6%88.8103.04.2%39.6%37.5%
Last 30 G30116.280.371.380.346.34211.2%8.6%10.7%87.5103.03.4%30.7%39.8%
90 days75296.252.342.368.327.31914.5%8.1%11.4%86.7107.32.8%30.4%36.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 217 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 2%
Sam Antonacci · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating55Average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.329 / .323results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball95.291.835.063Out
Sep 24RHPFastball89.2100.613.915Single
Sep 24RHPCutter89.577.1-12.054Out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.295.3-2.299Single
Sep 24RHPFastball93.862.939.350Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.3101.913.892Single
Sep 23RHPFastball99.299.228.780Out
Sep 23LHPSinker90.1101.1-6.258Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.587.425.090Out
Sep 20RHPSlider87.596.37.533Double
Sep 20RHPCutter92.794.40.316Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.390.833.062Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24622010
Sep 23511000
Sep 20423000
Sep 19400000
Sep 18200000
Sep 16100000
Sep 15422001
Sep 14311000
Sep 13413000
Sep 12522000

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Sam Antonacci bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sam Antonacci with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.7%44.1%
Whiff%20.4%22.7%
Contact%79.6%77.3%
Chase%41.0%38.1%
wOBA.221.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes13.0%14.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.324
K%15.9%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%5.7%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%22.8%
Avg EV87.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

58 PA
wOBA.330
xwOBA vs this mix.317against pitches like his
RV/1000.25
Hard-hit%19.2%
K%19.8%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sam Antonacci: every projection we've made →