MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 2Andrés Chaparro
Bats rightTalent grade CPowerCold
.392wOBA vs RHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .365 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .353 vs league .339 (about even).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .327 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .305 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrés Chaparro's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Andrés Chaparro's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 104.4 mph at 0°Out: 99.6 mph at -19°Single: 100.6 mph at 22°Out: 94.5 mph at 35°Out: 98.6 mph at 40°Out: 77.3 mph at 3°Out: 85.5 mph at 31°Out: 91.2 mph at 25°Single: 58.4 mph at -54°Home run: 106.9 mph at 29°Double: 109.0 mph at 17°Out: 89.0 mph at 44°Out: 75.4 mph at -36°Out: 92.5 mph at 31°Single: 92.5 mph at 7°Single: 97.3 mph at 12°Out: 69.8 mph at 64°Out: 92.5 mph at 38°Out: 79.2 mph at 66°Out: 99.3 mph at -20°Home run: 100.2 mph at 21°Out: 87.9 mph at 80°Single: 62.5 mph at 43°Double: 108.6 mph at 1°Single: 93.3 mph at 5°Single: 101.7 mph at -1°Out: 94.9 mph at 29°Out: 87.9 mph at 3°Out: 74.2 mph at -8°Out: 79.3 mph at 7°Single: 86.3 mph at -11°Single: 94.3 mph at -13°Out: 100.9 mph at 13°Single: 90.2 mph at -26°Out: 94.4 mph at -3°Out: 87.1 mph at 78°Out: 97.2 mph at 62°Out: 96.5 mph at 25°Single: 105.9 mph at 14°Out: 81.7 mph at 63°
38% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.4%60.7%+1.7
2+ total bases39.0%37.3%+1.7
Home run15.0%14.6%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
+3.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
+3.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Andrés Chaparro against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.365.35119.6%19.5%19About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.353.33923.8%23.2%15About league average vs these
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.327.31337.1%27.9%5Little history vs this shape
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.305.29239.2%29.4%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Andrés Chaparro · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.286.312.22537.5%12.5%47.4%84.8100.60.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G922.211.318.211.300.25027.3%13.6%45.5%86.9100.60.0%23.1%30.8%
Last 30 G2061.259.344.407.349.29821.3%9.8%32.3%88.7109.19.8%34.1%29.3%
90 days3075.299.373.537.404.31422.7%8.0%32.5%88.0109.112.0%36.0%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 24%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 22%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.167.375.167.288.29612.5%25.0%15.4%94.2104.40.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1326.333.385.667.442.29526.9%7.7%31.4%92.6109.011.8%47.1%29.4%
Last 30 G2139.343.410.686.460.32328.2%10.3%31.9%91.9111.216.7%45.8%33.3%
90 days4795.277.368.602.419.36024.2%10.5%31.1%90.9111.213.3%50.0%26.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 13%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.231.375.231.300.26125.0%18.8%34.4%90.0104.40.0%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1548.279.354.465.377.27427.1%10.4%37.9%90.1109.06.7%36.7%30.0%
Last 30 G30100.292.370.517.392.30824.0%10.0%32.2%89.9111.212.3%38.5%30.8%
90 days58170.287.371.573.412.33923.5%9.4%31.8%89.6111.212.7%43.6%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 17%
Andrés Chaparro · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches89steady
wOBA / xwOBA.414 / .358running 56 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker91.9104.40.429Single
Sep 23LHPSinker93.899.6-19.122Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.7100.622.675Single
Sep 22RHPFastball95.494.535.207Out
Sep 20LHPFastball93.898.640.151Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup82.977.33.108Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper82.785.531.047Out
Sep 19LHPFastball94.191.225.165Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper84.458.4-54.174Single
Sep 15LHPSinker94.6106.9291.927Home run
Sep 15LHPSinker94.8109.017.791Double
Sep 15LHPSinker95.789.044.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411002
Sep 22411002
Sep 20300010
Sep 19411010
Sep 16100010
Sep 15326100
Sep 13511011
Sep 12211000
Sep 11300002
Sep 9400002

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
Andrés Chaparro bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrés Chaparro with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.0%42.4%
Whiff%23.0%22.2%
Contact%77.0%77.8%
Chase%40.9%39.8%
wOBA.243.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.1%23.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.340
K%24.3%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%15.1%
Barrel%7.2%
Hard-hit%27.0%
Avg EV88.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

75 PA
wOBA.392
xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his
RV/1001.61
Hard-hit%24.7%
K%22.8%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrés Chaparro: every projection we've made →