MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 3Brady House
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.285wOBA vs RHP.319xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .342 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .330 vs league .339 (about even).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .304 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Brady House: wOBA .282 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brady House's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brady House's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 89.2 mph at 19°Single: 98.6 mph at 12°Out: 89.3 mph at 30°Out: 65.7 mph at 69°Out: 103.7 mph at -37°Single: 108.7 mph at -4°Single: 91.5 mph at 19°Out: 52.1 mph at 18°Double: 111.1 mph at -2°Out: 107.7 mph at -16°Out: 109.9 mph at 0°Double: 99.5 mph at -2°Out: 74.4 mph at -15°Out: 103.2 mph at 34°Out: 105.0 mph at 3°Out: 102.7 mph at -18°Out: 92.7 mph at 51°Out: 85.1 mph at 51°Single: 106.3 mph at 8°Out: 102.9 mph at -10°Out: 74.6 mph at 14°Out: 71.2 mph at -12°Out: 104.9 mph at -4°Double: 100.4 mph at 15°Out: 69.8 mph at 5°Out: 79.9 mph at -18°Out: 108.0 mph at 17°Single: 87.3 mph at 17°Out: 87.7 mph at 0°Out: 71.5 mph at 48°Out: 75.1 mph at 27°Single: 76.8 mph at 21°Out: 90.4 mph at 32°Out: 98.3 mph at 20°Out: 47.7 mph at 0°Out: 95.1 mph at 46°Single: 82.6 mph at 15°Double: 101.6 mph at 0°Out: 85.3 mph at 42°Double: 104.5 mph at -24°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.5%64.9%-1.4
2+ total bases35.1%36.4%-1.2
Home run9.2%9.9%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Brady House against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.342.35116.2%19.5%18About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.330.33919.5%23.2%14About league average vs these
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.304.31328.8%27.9%13About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.282.29228.1%29.4%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brady House · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.143.143.286.179.10428.6%0.0%25.0%95.5111.10.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1027.111.111.185.126.27218.5%0.0%24.3%91.4111.19.1%50.0%31.8%
Last 30 G2374.215.284.354.280.31017.6%8.1%18.4%93.1111.17.4%51.9%25.9%
90 days38110.214.282.316.276.31523.6%6.4%21.9%92.3111.18.1%52.7%28.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 19%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.571.667.571.556.41722.2%22.2%26.7%88.0108.70.0%40.0%80.0%
Last 15 G1121.438.571.500.483.41319.0%23.8%16.2%90.4109.90.0%41.7%58.3%
Last 30 G1629.348.483.391.405.38420.7%20.7%16.7%86.9109.90.0%41.2%52.9%
90 days2757.360.439.540.427.41822.8%12.3%26.4%89.1110.08.1%54.1%51.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 38%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.357.438.429.391.28025.0%12.5%26.1%91.8111.10.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1548.233.312.302.282.33418.8%10.4%20.3%91.0111.15.9%47.1%41.2%
Last 30 G30103.250.340.364.315.33118.4%11.7%17.9%91.6111.15.6%49.3%32.4%
90 days48167.264.335.392.328.35023.4%8.4%23.6%91.2111.18.1%53.2%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 111 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 25%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
Brady House · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating87Excellent
Last 100 pitches79trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.324 / .361running 37 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker91.189.219.555Single
Sep 23LHPFastball94.398.612.882Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.889.330.086Out
Sep 21RHPSinker92.865.769.000Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball86.6103.7-37.066Out
Sep 20LHPSlider83.0108.7-4.386Single
Sep 20LHPFastball92.091.519.403Single
Sep 18LHPFastball90.252.118.129Out
Sep 18RHPSinker95.7111.1-2.417Double
Sep 18RHPSinker95.3107.7-16.162Out
Sep 15LHPSinker96.1109.90.485Out
Sep 15LHPChangeup86.399.5-2.321Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23422001
Sep 21400002
Sep 20322010
Sep 19100010
Sep 18412001
Sep 16100001
Sep 15412011
Sep 13100000
Sep 12500000
Sep 11411020

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
Brady House bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brady House with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.5%42.4%
Whiff%25.1%22.2%
Contact%74.9%77.8%
Chase%39.4%39.8%
wOBA.221.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.4%23.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.294
K%24.5%
BB%6.5%
Whiff%11.4%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%33.8%
Avg EV90.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

110 PA
wOBA.285
xwOBA vs this mix.319against pitches like his
RV/100-0.74
Hard-hit%34.5%
K%23.5%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brady House: every projection we've made →